TEXANS VS. BUCS
Examining Houston Texans keys to victory over Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Nov 3, 2023, 3:28 pm
The Texans host the Bucs on Sunday. Composite Getty Image.
Here's an early look at how Houston Texans rookies measure up
What: Texans vs. Buccaneers
When: 11/5 12pm CST kickoff
Where: Houston, TX NRG Stadium
TV/Radio: KHOU-TV, KILT-Radio
Betting Lines: Texans -3 (Even), O/U 40 (-110) *As of this writing
When the Texans play the Bucs Sunday at NRG, both teams will be fighting to stay in playoff contention. At 3-4 with 2-1 records in their divisions, a non-conference loss won't hurt much, but it certainly won't help. The Texans weren't seen as a playoff contender coming into the season by the overwhelming majority. The Bucs were picked by some to possibly win the NFC South, or make the playoffs as a wildcard. The Bucs enter this game on a three game losing streak after going 3-1 in their first four games. The Texans enter the game winning three of their last five after an 0-2 start.
When the Bucs have the ball: Baker Mayfield has been called a modern-day version of Brett Favre, in the sense of his play on the field. He's known as a gunslinger who believes in his arm talent a little too much at times. With Mike Evans and Chris Godwin at receiver, I'd be a gunslinger too! Evans has never NOT had a 1,000-yard season in the NFL. Godwin has been very productive in his career so far as well. While Baker is sporting a 2.5:1 TD to interception ratio this season, his career mark of 1.65:1 can't escape him. The pass rush will be the key again this game. Tampa does the bulk of their damage through the air. Pressuring Baker into incompletions and/or interceptions is one way to do it. It looks as if their tackle Tristan Wirfs will play this weekend. They can't ignore the run game though. Tampa doesn't have a double-digit ball carrier that averages more than four yards per carry. At 3.8 yards per carry, Baker is their leading guy in that category.
Friday’s Injury Report for #TBvsHOU ⤵️ pic.twitter.com/qm2tFVguyn
— Houston Texans (@HoustonTexans) November 3, 2023
When the Texans have the ball: DOUBLE TEAM VITA VEA! At 6'4 and listed at 347lbs, Vea is a serious load. Primarily known as a run stuffer, Vea can push the pocket on passing downs. His 3.5 sacks leads their team. Going against him with Dameon Pierce being out isn't ideal. However, Devon Singletary has been seen as the better back for this run system. Factor in Robert Woods still being out and tight end Brevin Jordan missing the game as well, it doesn't bode well for the offense. This is when Tank Dell, Nico Collins, John Metchie III, and others have an opportunity to step it up. Missing one of his safety blankets after being frustrated will be tough on C.J. Stroud.
Outcome: When it comes down to it, this game will be decided by which defense is able to establish themselves. Both offenses are geared towards the pass game and use the run game to keep opponents honest. I can see Tampa's defensive line being the deciding factor. How the Texans' offensive line handles them will give us the winner. Stroud vs. Baker will be fun to watch. Stroud is more of a cerebral/accurate quarterback, while Baker is a gun slinging risk-taker. That being said: Texans 20, Bucs 19 with John Christian Kaʻiminoeauloamekaʻikeokekumupaʻa "Kaʻimi" Fairbairn kicking the game winner as time expires.
It’s May 1, and the Astros are turning heads—but not for the reasons anyone expected. Their resurgence, driven not by stars like Yordan Alvarez or Christian Walker, but by a cast of less-heralded names, is writing a strange and telling early-season story.
Christian Walker, brought in to add middle-of-the-order thump, has yet to resemble the feared hitter he was in Arizona. Forget the narrative of a slow starter—he’s never looked like this in April. Through March and April of 2025, he’s slashing a worrying .196/.277/.355 with a .632 OPS. Compare that to the same stretch in 2024, when he posted a .283 average, .496 slug, and a robust .890 OPS, and it becomes clear: this is something more than rust. Even in 2023, his April numbers (.248/.714 OPS) looked steadier.
What’s more troubling than the overall dip is when it’s happening. Walker is faltering in the biggest moments. With runners in scoring position, he’s hitting just .143 over 33 plate appearances, including 15 strikeouts. The struggles get even more glaring with two outs—.125 average, .188 slugging, and a .451 OPS in 19 such plate appearances. In “late and close” situations, when the pressure’s highest, he’s practically disappeared: 1-for-18 with a .056 average and a .167 OPS.
His patience has waned (only 9 walks so far, compared to 20 by this time last year), and for now, his presence in the lineup feels more like a placeholder than a pillar.
The contrast couldn’t be clearer when you look at José Altuve—long the engine of this franchise—who, in 2024, delivered in the moments Walker is now missing. With two outs and runners in scoring position, Altuve hit .275 with an .888 OPS. In late and close situations, he thrived with a .314 average and .854 OPS. That kind of situational excellence is missing from this 2025 squad—but someone else may yet step into that role.
And yet—the Astros are winning. Not because of Walker, but in spite of him.
Houston’s offense, in general, hasn’t lit up the leaderboard. Their team OPS ranks 23rd (.667), their slugging 25th (.357), and they sit just 22nd in runs scored (117). They’re 26th in doubles, a rare place for a team built on gap-to-gap damage.
But where there’s been light, it hasn’t come from the usual spots. Jeremy Peña, often overshadowed in a lineup full of stars, now boasts the team’s highest OPS at .791 (Isaac Paredes is second in OPS) and is flourishing in his new role as the leadoff hitter. Peña’s balance of speed, contact, aggression, and timely power has given Houston a surprising tone-setter at the top.
Even more surprising: four Astros currently have more home runs than Yordan Alvarez.
And then there’s the pitching—Houston’s anchor. The rotation and bullpen have been elite, ranking 5th in ERA (3.23), 1st in WHIP (1.08), and 4th in batting average against (.212). In a season where offense is lagging and clutch hits are rare, the arms have made all the difference.
For now, it’s the unexpected contributors keeping Houston afloat. Peña’s emergence. A rock-solid pitching staff. Role players stepping up in quiet but crucial ways. They’re not dominating, but they’re grinding—and in a sluggish AL West, that may be enough.
Walker still has time to find his swing. He showed some signs of life against Toronto and Detroit. If he does, the Astros could become dangerous. If he doesn’t, the turnaround we’re witnessing will be credited to a new cast of unlikely faces. And maybe, that’s the story that needed to be written.
We have so much more to discuss. Don't miss the video below as we examine the topics above and much, much more!
The MLB season is finally upon us! Join Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and Charlie Pallilo for the Stone Cold ‘Stros podcast which drops each Monday afternoon, with an additional episode now on Thursday!
*ChatGPT assisted.
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