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Rising stars: Unlocking the next chapter in Houston Texans' air attack
Dec 4, 2023, 1:36 pm
Nico Collins will be leaned on heavily with Tank Dell injured. Photo by Carmen Mandato/Getty Images.
Nobody wants to see a player get hurt. It's heightened when it's a player on the team you root for. Fellow players share this sentiment. It hits their teammates and coaches differently. Especially when a hard working teammate who beats the odds and naysayers to prove himself worthy of the position he's in. That's how it was when Tank Dell went down with a fractured fibula in the team's win over the Broncos.
To see how emotional C.J. Stroud got about Dell being injured says a lot. First, about Stroud. He's proven to be a leader on and off the field. No surprise it hit him hard. Perhaps a little extra since those guys have grown close. Second, it lets you know what kind of teammate Dell is that his guys are this hurt. It also speaks to the closeness of this team. DeMeco Ryans is building something special here.
Likely out for the season is the team's most dynamic playmaker on the outside, and Stroud's favorite target. A void will need to be filled. This team is just on the outside looking into the AFC playoff picture. Sitting in the eighth spot, they have the same record as the Steelers (fifth), Browns (sixth), and Colts (seventh). A division tiebreaker is why the Texans aren't in. They beat the Steelers already and play the Browns on Christmas Eve. The Colts are their last game of the season. It's not only possible, it's very probable.
In order to achieve the success they seem destined to have, guys will need to step up. Nico Collins has stepped up his game. He has 59 catches for 991 yards and six touchdowns this season. That's more yards and touchdowns than his previous two seasons combined. By season's end, he will have more catches than the previous two seasons combined as well. He's shown that he and Stroud have good chemistry. Collins has had six games with five or more catches this season. Stroud has looked for him in key situations, and in a variety of routes/levels on the field. I have no doubt Collins will continue to produce and try to prove he's WR1 on this team.
When looking at the rest of the receiver room, there are several other guys I believe will step up. John Metchie III comes to mind. Stroud missed him on a deep ball in the Broncos game. It was an overthrow and seemed as if there may have been a miscommunication. Metchie hasn't played much since being activated after recovering from cancer treatment. That along with a crowded receiver room has made it difficult. Dell was playing the position people thought Metchie would be playing. Dell proved he's better in the slot, and outside. Now it's time for Metchie to prove why he was drafted in the second round last year.
Xavier Hutchinson and Noah Brown are interesting candidates as well. Hutchinson was one of the team's sixth round draft picks this past draft. He's got a similar build/frame to Collins. Big targets are always a quarterback's best friend. Brown was a free agent who signed a one-year deal. He has 14 catches for 325 yards and a touchdown in the previous two games, but had no catches on two targets against the Broncos. One of these two guys will have a breakout down the stretch. Brown has had a couple big games already, but Hutchinson could be the one to benefit from more playing time the most. These two are the ones nobody is really looking at to do anything significant. Which is why Brown's previous two games seemed so out of left field, and even more of a reason why if either guy, especially Hutchinson, does anything down the stretch, it'll be seen as extraordinary.
Honorable mention goes to Steven Sims. He's been on/off the 53-man roster this season. They've primarily used him in the return game. That's where I expect to see him get the most playing time with Dell out. If he gets a chance to showcase his shiftiness and speed catching passes, he could earn more playing time. If you're wondering why I didn't mention the tight ends or Robert Woods, it was on purpose. Woods is an older vet who may not be long for this team. The tight ends don't split out in this offense and rarely line up in the slot.
This team will be just fine without Dell. While his presence will be sorely missed, there's enough in that receiver room to get the job done. Please don't forget who's the trigger man. Stroud is like a world-class marksman. Hand him any weapon, and he's guaranteed to hit his target.
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While holding one’s breath that for a change the Astros aren’t publicly grossly underestimating an injury’s severity with Jose Altuve having missed the last game and a half with “right side discomfort…”
The Astros averting a sweep vs. Oakland Thursday was in no way a must-win, but getting the win allowed a mini sigh of relief. The Astros are NOT in the process of choking. Could they collapse? Sure that’s possible. Also possible is that they’ve just been in one more ebb phase in a season of ebb and flow. They certainly have left the door ajar for the Seattle Mariners to swipe the American League West, but with the M's simply not looking good enough to walk through that door the Astros remain in commanding position. The Astros made a spectacular charge from 10 games behind to grab the division lead. But there was a lot of runway left when the Astros awoke June 19th 10 games in arrears. September 3 the Astros arose with a comfy six game lead over the M’s. With Seattle blowing a 4-1 eighth inning lead in a 5-4 loss to the Texas Rangers Thursday night, heading into Friday night the Astros' advantage is back up to four and a half games despite the Astros having lost six of their last nine games and having gone just 10-12 over their last 22 games. Not a good stretch but nothing freefalling about it.
While the Mariners have the remainder of their four-game series vs. the dead in the water Rangers this weekend, the Astros play three at the lousy Los Angeles Angels. The Astros should take advantage of the Halos, with whom they also have a four-game series at Minute Maid Park next weekend. Since the All-Star break, only the White Sox have a worse record than the Angels 19-31 mark (the White Sox are 6-43 post-break!). Two of the three starting pitchers the Angels will throw this weekend will be making their third big league starts. To begin next week the Astros are in San Diego for a three-game-set against a Padres club which is flat better than the Astros right now. That does not mean the Astros can’t take that series. The Mariners meanwhile will be still at home, for three vs. the Yankees.
There are some brutal Astros’ statistics that largely explain why this is merely a pretty good team and not more. As I have noted before, it is a fallacy that the best teams are usually superior in close games. But the Astros have been pathetic in close games. There used to be a joke made about Sammy Sosa that he could blow you out, but he couldn’t beat you. Meaning being that when the score was 6-1, 8-3 or the like Sammy would pad his stats with home runs and runs batted in galore. But in a tight game, don’t count on Sammy to come through very often. In one-run games the Astros are 15-26, in two-run games they are 10-14. In games that were tied after seven innings they are 3-12. In extra innings they are 5-10. The good news is, all those realities mean nothing when the postseason starts. So long as you’re in the postseason. In games decided by three or more runs the Astros have pummeled the opposition to the tune of 53 wins and 28 losses.
General Manager Dana Brown isn’t an Executive of the Year candidate, but overall he’s been fine this season. Without the Yusei Kikuchi trade deadline acquisition the Astros would likely barely lead the AL West. Brown’s biggest offseason get, Victor Caratini, has done very solid work in his part-time role. Though he has tapered off notably the last month and change, relief pitcher Tayler Scott was a fabulous signing. Scrap heap pickups Ben Gamel, Jason Heyward, and Kaleb Ort have all made contributions. However…
Dana. Dana! You made yourself look very silly with comments this week somewhat scoffing at people being concerned with or dismissive of Justin Verlander’s ability to be a meaningful playoff contributor. Brown re-sang a ridiculous past tune, the “check the back of his baseball card” baloney. Dana, did you mean like the back of Jose Abreu’s baseball card? Perhaps Brown has never seen those brokerage ads in which at the end in fine print and/or in rapidly spoken words “past performance is no guarantee of future results” always must be included. Past (overall career) performance as indicative of future results for a 41-year-old pitcher who has frequently looked terrible and has twice missed chunks of this season to two different injuries is absurd. That Verlander could find it in time is plausible. That of course he’ll find it? Absolutely not. His next two starts are slotted to be against the feeble Angels, so even if the results are better, it won’t mean “JV IS BACK!”
Presuming they hold on to win the division, the Astros’ recent sub-middling play means they have only very faint hope of avoiding having to play the best-of-three Wild Card Series. Barring a dramatic turn over the regular season’s final fortnight, Framber Valdez and Hunter Brown are the obvious choices to start games one and two. If there is a game three, it is one game do or die. Only a fool would think Verlander the right man for that assignment. No one should expect Brown to say “Yeah, JV is likely finished as a frontline starter.” But going to the “back of the baseball card” line was laughable. Father Time gets us all eventually. Verlander has an uphill climb extricating himself from Father Time’s grasp.
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