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Rising stars: Unlocking the next chapter in Houston Texans' air attack
Dec 4, 2023, 1:36 pm
Nico Collins will be leaned on heavily with Tank Dell injured. Photo by Carmen Mandato/Getty Images.
Nobody wants to see a player get hurt. It's heightened when it's a player on the team you root for. Fellow players share this sentiment. It hits their teammates and coaches differently. Especially when a hard working teammate who beats the odds and naysayers to prove himself worthy of the position he's in. That's how it was when Tank Dell went down with a fractured fibula in the team's win over the Broncos.
To see how emotional C.J. Stroud got about Dell being injured says a lot. First, about Stroud. He's proven to be a leader on and off the field. No surprise it hit him hard. Perhaps a little extra since those guys have grown close. Second, it lets you know what kind of teammate Dell is that his guys are this hurt. It also speaks to the closeness of this team. DeMeco Ryans is building something special here.
Likely out for the season is the team's most dynamic playmaker on the outside, and Stroud's favorite target. A void will need to be filled. This team is just on the outside looking into the AFC playoff picture. Sitting in the eighth spot, they have the same record as the Steelers (fifth), Browns (sixth), and Colts (seventh). A division tiebreaker is why the Texans aren't in. They beat the Steelers already and play the Browns on Christmas Eve. The Colts are their last game of the season. It's not only possible, it's very probable.
In order to achieve the success they seem destined to have, guys will need to step up. Nico Collins has stepped up his game. He has 59 catches for 991 yards and six touchdowns this season. That's more yards and touchdowns than his previous two seasons combined. By season's end, he will have more catches than the previous two seasons combined as well. He's shown that he and Stroud have good chemistry. Collins has had six games with five or more catches this season. Stroud has looked for him in key situations, and in a variety of routes/levels on the field. I have no doubt Collins will continue to produce and try to prove he's WR1 on this team.
When looking at the rest of the receiver room, there are several other guys I believe will step up. John Metchie III comes to mind. Stroud missed him on a deep ball in the Broncos game. It was an overthrow and seemed as if there may have been a miscommunication. Metchie hasn't played much since being activated after recovering from cancer treatment. That along with a crowded receiver room has made it difficult. Dell was playing the position people thought Metchie would be playing. Dell proved he's better in the slot, and outside. Now it's time for Metchie to prove why he was drafted in the second round last year.
Xavier Hutchinson and Noah Brown are interesting candidates as well. Hutchinson was one of the team's sixth round draft picks this past draft. He's got a similar build/frame to Collins. Big targets are always a quarterback's best friend. Brown was a free agent who signed a one-year deal. He has 14 catches for 325 yards and a touchdown in the previous two games, but had no catches on two targets against the Broncos. One of these two guys will have a breakout down the stretch. Brown has had a couple big games already, but Hutchinson could be the one to benefit from more playing time the most. These two are the ones nobody is really looking at to do anything significant. Which is why Brown's previous two games seemed so out of left field, and even more of a reason why if either guy, especially Hutchinson, does anything down the stretch, it'll be seen as extraordinary.
Honorable mention goes to Steven Sims. He's been on/off the 53-man roster this season. They've primarily used him in the return game. That's where I expect to see him get the most playing time with Dell out. If he gets a chance to showcase his shiftiness and speed catching passes, he could earn more playing time. If you're wondering why I didn't mention the tight ends or Robert Woods, it was on purpose. Woods is an older vet who may not be long for this team. The tight ends don't split out in this offense and rarely line up in the slot.
This team will be just fine without Dell. While his presence will be sorely missed, there's enough in that receiver room to get the job done. Please don't forget who's the trigger man. Stroud is like a world-class marksman. Hand him any weapon, and he's guaranteed to hit his target.
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If the Astros were going to win one series and lose the other on their six-game road trip out of the All-Star break, they got it right in taking two out of three games at Seattle then losing two out of three to lousy Oakland. Had they inverted those results, the Astros would not be alone atop the American League West starting this weekend’s series against the Dodgers at Minute Maid Park.
By the schedule the Astros’ sledding now gets tougher. The Dodgers are rolling toward their 11th National League West crown in 12 years, despite their pitching staff having been battered by injuries every bit as much as the Astros’. The Astros will face three rookie starters this weekend. National League Rookie of the Year candidate (non-Paul Skenes division) Gavin Stone goes Friday. Saturday it’s Justin Wrobleski making his fourth big league start, Sunday River Ryan makes his second. 325 million dollar addition Yoshinobu Yamamoto last pitched June 15. Tony Gonsolin is out for the year without throwing a pitch. Clayton Kershaw’s first pitch Thursday marks the first of his season. Tyler Glasnow’s Wednesday return from the Injured List means the Astros won’t face him this weekend.
Aside: Astros’ fan favorite Joe Kelly is back in the Dodgers’ bullpen. He was activated from the IL out of the break, so the opportunity to welcome him back to Minute Maid Park looms!
After the Dodgers, the Pirates hit town with Skenes slated to pitch Monday opposite Jake Bloss. Gulp. Hey, in one game, you never know. Skenes has been the most electric rookie pitcher since Dwight Gooden with the Mets in 1984.
Sleepless in Seattle
The Mariners’ unraveling has reached historic proportions. It’s not easy losing six straight matchups with the lowly Angels but the Mariners were down to the challenge and pulled it off. The M’s have stumble-bummed their way to a 9-20 record over their last 29 games. That’s actually a better winning percentage than the Astros’ had after staggering from the starting gate to a 7-19 mark. Like the Astros did, the Mariners can right their ship, though if they don’t add quality offense before Tuesday’s trade deadline it seems unlikely. Seattle has scored more than two runs in one of its last eight games, the only win among those eight when the Mariners got to Ronel Blanco and Seth Martinez Sunday to avoid an Astros’ sweep. Meanwhile, the Texas Rangers whipping up on the laughingstock Chicago White Sox this week has their World Series title defense very much alive and a threat to overtake both the Astros and Mariners.
The trade deadline is this Tuesday
Tick-tock toward Tuesday’s 5PM Central Time trade deadline. General Manager Dana Brown is on the clock. Let’s start with starting pitchers. Tarik Skubal! Garrett Crochet! Jack Flaherty! Any would be a fabulous addition. If Brown acquires one, he will have done phenomenal work cajoling the trade partner into thinking the Astros’ offer the best. Frankly it seems impossible. The Orioles are in the starting pitcher market. Their farm system runs laps around what the Astros have. Numerous other teams on the hunt for pitching have higher rated minor league talent. The Triple-A Sugar Land Space Cowboys are having a fabulous season, but until the Astros Thursday moved up soon to be 24-year-old Jacob Melton (who was batting just .248 with a .307 on-base percentage at Double-A Corpus Christi) there was not one non-pitcher of any consequence younger than 25 on the roster. Pedro Leon, Shay Whitcomb, Will Wagner, and include Joey Loperfido: it would be shocking if any of them can be the best player in an offer good enough to land one of the potential big trade fish. All four of them wouldn’t be enough to land a Skubal or Crochet.
On the hitter side, if the Blue Jays shop Vlad Jr. and/or the Rays take offers for Paredes, of course Brown better try. Either would be a sharp upgrade over Jon Singleton, and Guerrero can’t become a free agent until after next season, with Paredes under team control through 2027. Reality check time. Seattle’s offense is in dire straits. The Mariners have four prospects rated higher than any Astros’ prospect. If the Mariners didn’t make a winning offer over what the Astros proposed, Seattle GM Jerry Dipoto would look like a timid clown.
That said, there will be several second and third tier starters and relievers moved who would boost the Astros. If Spencer Arrighetti and Jake Bloss are both still in the Astros’ starting rotation after the deadline, Dana Brown will have failed. That said, the Astros could well stand pat and win the Mild, Mild West. They could also finish third.
Go for the gold!
With the Olympics underway, a medal podium-style ranking of the Astros’ greatest trade deadline acquisitions:
No medal but cannot be omitted: Randy Johnson. It was a brief fling with “The Big Unit” in 1998 but it was spectacular. It elevated Houston as a baseball city. In 11 regular season starts Johnson went 10-1 with a 1.28 earned run average. He threw shutouts in his first four Astrodome starts. He spiked attendance like no other player in franchise history. Even though the San Diego Padres beat Johnson twice (Johnson pitched fine, the Astros scored two runs total in the two games) and bounced the Astros in a National League Division Series, and prospects Freddy Garcia and Carlos Guillen included in the deal both went on to have excellent careers, it was a trade that in hindsight you make 100 times out of 100.
Bronze: Jeff Bagwell. Reliever Larry Andersen was outstanding in helping the Boston Red Sox win the AL East in 1990, but the BoSox got swept in the ALCS and Andersen left as a free agent. Bagwell has the greatest offensive resume in Astros’ history (I know, I know, postseason aside) and is quite arguably one of the 10 greatest first basemen of all-time.
Silver: Yordan Alvarez. He has longevity to prove but to this point in his career, while not the all-around player Bagwell was, Yordan is clearly the more destructive force in the batter’s box. Throw in his three monstrously significant home runs in the 2022 Astros’ title run, and his awesome 2023 postseason, and what could still lie ahead for him and the Gold could be his if we revisit this topic 10 years from now. Imagine the Dodgers if they hadn’t gifted Yordan to the Astros for Josh Fields.
Gold: Justin Verlander. Astros’ World Series championships pre-JV, zero. With him, two. Even though his World Series resume is terrible. The finishing piece to the Astros’ initial championship winner in 2017 with a 1.06 ERA in five starts ahead of winning the 2017 ALCS MVP, a second crown in 2022, two Cy Young Awards and a Cy runner-up. Interesting decision to make for the cap on his Hall of Fame plaque. Much more body of work with the Tigers but the championships and legend cemented with the Astros.
*Catch our weekly Stone Cold ‘Stros podcast. Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and I discuss varied Astros topics. The first post for the week generally goes up Monday afternoon (second part released Tuesday) via The SportsMap HOU YouTube channel or listen to episodes in their entirety at Apple, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.