THE PALLILOG
How Texans can build legit win streak, avoid colossal letdown versus Titans
Nov 21, 2024, 5:39 pm
Can the Texans protect CJ Stroud from the Titans' beefy defensive line? Photo by Sam Hodde/Getty Images.
While wondering what songs Beyoncé packs into a 12-minute Christmas day set at halftime of Texans-Ravens...
A National Football League team couldn't ask for a much easier three game stretch right now than playing the Dallas Cowboys, Tennessee Titans, and Jacksonville Jaguars. Well, the Texans clobbered the Cowboys Monday night, should toss the Titans Sunday, then should have a jolly time in Jacksonville next Sunday. This is not assuming victories, but the Texans definitely should boost their record to 9-4 heading into their open week (it's NOT a bye!).
We're not yet to Thanksgiving and the Texans this Sunday can formalize the inevitable: Again this season the Tennessee Titans will not have a better record than the Texans. The 7-4 Texans should feast at the 2-8 Titans' expense at NRG Stadium. The Titans' last four losses have all come by at least 10 points. For information purposes only, the Texans should make it five.
The Titans' biggest strength does go up against the Texans' biggest area of concern. That means the Titans' interior defensive line vs. the Texans' interior offensive line. Jeffery Simmons is an elite defensive tackle and second round rookie DT T'Vondre Sweat out of the University of Texas is 350+ pounds of good. Juice Scruggs, Jarrett Patterson, and Shaq Mason will have their hands full---hopefully not of Simmons's and Sweat's jerseys. Hopefully not hands caught anyway. There might not be a lot of good inside running opportunities for Joe Mixon, but he has been fabulous at making more out of not much. Mixon has had at least 20 carries in five straight games. It would behoove the Texans to lighten Mixon's workload with a couple earlier blowouts of grossly inferior opponents.
The Simmons/Sweat tandem is pretty much the only thing the Titans have in their favor. Despite that duo doing work inside, the Titans have mustered just 20 sacks because they have no pass rusher in Danielle Hunter and Will Anderson's league. In what is an eyebrow-raising and deceptive stat, the Titans are giving up the second fewest yards per game in the NFL this season. The Texans rank a strong number four (the Philadelphia Eagles are number one). But the Titans have just seven takeaways in 10 games. The Texans have 20. Amazingly, no Tennessee cornerback has an interception this season. Safety Amani Hooker has all three of their picks. Only the also lousy Las Vegas Raiders have a worse turnover margin than the Titans' minus-11 (the Raiders are minus-15). The Texans are plus-eight.
The Titans' offense is much worse than the defense. The Titans' paltry 17 points scored per game ranks fifth worst in the league. Only twice in their 10 games have they topped 17 points, the only time in their last six games took overtime in a 20-17 win over the Patriots. First year head coach Brian Callahan was hired away from Cincinnati as an “offensive guy” after five seasons as the Bengals' offensive coordinator. Callahan sure looked smarter with Joe Burrow as his quarterback and Ja'Marr Chase as his top wide receiver than he has with Will Levis and Calvin Ridley in those roles. In his second-season without much around him, Levis is not hopeless at QB, but definitely has not given strong evidence that he is “the guy.”
Turn back the clock
There aren't all that many people left who still despise the Titans as the franchise that left Houston for Nashville. We're approaching 28 years since the Houston Oilers played their final game. Still, for those with longstanding animosity, and/or for those who like seeing a divisional foe stink, these are good times. In the spirit of next week's holiday, the Titans are a big turkey ready to be basted.
Just three seasons ago Mike Vrabel was coaching the Titans to a 12-5 record, their second straight AFC South crown, and the top seed in the AFC playoffs. That same 2021 season Texans' fans endured David Culley as head coach of a 4-13 debacle. Given the current state of the franchises, it feels more like 10 years ago. Let's go back a bit more than a decade...
"On paper" is never a guarantee, but Texans-Titans "on paper" this week is about as fair a fight as Andre Johnson vs. Cortland Finnegan in 2010:
If you're wondering, no, Finnegan is not in the Pro Football Hall of Fame. But let's be fair, he had a good career, highlighted by a first team All-Pro selection for the 2008 season (his only Pro Bowl season).
For Texans’ conversation, catch Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and me on our Texans On Tap podcasts. Thursdays feature a preview of the upcoming game, and then we go live (then available on demand) after the final gun of the game: Texans on Tap - YouTube
The Astros are always in season for discussion. Our Stone Cold ‘Stros podcasts drop Mondays: Click here to watch!
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Expectations
The Texans are favored to win the AFC South for a third straight season with a team led by young stars quarterback C.J. Stroud and defensive end Will Anderson. Stroud’s strong first two years helped the Texans turn things around and this year they’ll try to reach the playoffs in three straight seasons for the first time in franchise history. Stroud will be directing a new offense led by first-time offensive coordinator Nick Caley, who took over after Bobby Slowik was fired this offseason following Houston’s loss to the Chiefs in the divisional round. General manager Nick Caserio also beefed up the team’s receiving corps, led by Nico Collins, by adding veteran Christian Kirk and drafting Jayden Higgins in the second round and Jaylin Noel in the third. Coach DeMeco Ryans has vowed the offensive line will be better this season after Stroud was sacked 52 times last season, which was second-most in the league. But it’s difficult to see how his protection will be better after they traded left tackle Laremy Tunsil and didn’t make any big moves to replace him. Defensively, Anderson should take another step forward in his second year playing with veteran Danielle Hunter after the third-overall pick in the 2023 draft had 17 sacks combined in his first two seasons. Cornerback Derek Stingley returns to lead a talented young secondary after earning first team AP All-Pro honors last season when he had five interceptions and defended 18 passes.
New faces
OC Nick Caley, WR Jayden Higgins, WR Christian Kirk, WR Jaylin Noel, LT Cam Robinson, RB Nick Chubb, RT Aireontae Ersery, LG Laken Tomlinson, C Jake Andrews.
Key losses
LT Laremy Tunsil, WR John Metchie III, G Kenyon Green, TE Brevin Jordan, CB Eric Murray, WR Robert Woods, CB Kris Boyd.
Strengths
Stroud and Houston’s stacked receiving group should be the stars of the team this season. The 2023 AP Offensive Rookie of the Year has been great in his first two seasons to bring the Texans back into contention after an awful stretch. His interception rate was up last season but he’s looking for improvement this season in Caley’s offense, which he has described as “exciting.” He’ll have plenty of strong targets to throw to, led by Collins, who had a second straight 1,000-yard season last year despite missing five games with injuries. He’ll be joined by Kirk, who should fill in at the slot with Tank Dell likely to miss all season recovering from an injury he suffered in December. Higgins and Noel come to Houston after combining for 2,377 yards receiving and 17 touchdowns last season at Iowa State.
Weaknesses
It’s hard to see how the offensive line will be improved this season with Tunsil gone to Washington. Though he was penalty-prone, he was the team’s most consistent lineman. They completely revamped the line after his trade and return just one starter from last year’s group. They’ll likely rely on rookie Ersery to protect Stroud’s blind side after taking him in the second round of the draft. He started 38 games at left tackle over three seasons at Minnesota. Veteran Tytus Howard returns at right tackle after starting 16 games there last season. The center is Jake Andrews in his first year in Houston and he returns after missing all of last season with an injury before being released by the Patriots. Left guard Laken Tomlinson and right guard Ed Ingram are also new to the team.
Camp development
Houston’s secondary sustained a big blow in camp when safety C.J. Gardner-Johnson suffered a leg injury. The injury isn’t season-ending but he is likely to miss significant time. Gardner-Johnson is in his first year in Houston after he was acquired from the Eagles in March in exchange for left guard Kenyon Green. He was expected to be the team’s starting free safety after the Texans lost Eric Murray in free agency to the Jaguars. The Texans will also be without backup Jimmie Ward indefinitely after he was placed on the commissioner exempt list Tuesday as he faces a felony domestic violence charge after a June arrest.
Fantasy player to watch
Collins should have another big year after finishing with more than 1,000 yards receiving in each of the last two seasons. He’s had 15 touchdowns combined in the last two seasons despite missing seven games with injuries.
BetMGM Sportsbook
Win Super Bowl: 35-1.