TEXANS-TITANS PREVIEW
6 key points that could decide Houston Texans’ fate in Titans showdown
Nov 21, 2024, 2:19 pm
TEXANS-TITANS PREVIEW
Tennessee (2-8) at Houston (7-4)
Sunday, 1 p.m. EST, CBS
BetMGM NFL Odds: Texans by 8 1/2.
Against the spread: Tennessee 1-9; Houston 5-5-1.
Series record: Titans lead 23-21.
Last meeting: Texans beat Titans 26-3 on Dec. 31, 2023, in Houston.
Last week: Titans lost to Vikings 23-13; Texans beat Cowboys 34-10.
Titans offense: overall (25), rush (18), pass (29), scoring (28).
Titans defense: overall (2), rush (12), pass (1), scoring (26).
Texans offense: overall (14), rush (13), pass (14), scoring (14).
Texans defense: overall (4), rush (9), pass (6), scoring (11).
Turnover differential: Titans minus-11, Texans plus-8.
QB Will Levis. He doesn't have a win yet in his two games back since missing three straight with a sprained AC joint in his right, throwing shoulder. But the second-year quarterback has completed 64.8% of his passes (35 of 54) for 470 yards with three TD passes and only one interception. He's also been using his legs on designed runs as well as scrambling 12 times for 59 yards. He's also been sacked 12 times since his return. Last week, Levis tied the franchise record for the longest TD pass first set in 1962 with a 98-yard catch-and-run to Nick Westbrook-Ikhine. That also was the longest play in the NFL this season.
RB Joe Mixon had 153 yards of offense and a season-high three touchdowns Monday night. He ran for 109 yards and had 44 yards receiving. He has had at least 90 yards from scrimmage in six straight games, the longest active streak in the NFL. Mixon has had at least 100 yards rushing in six of his eight games this season and his nine rushing touchdowns in the past six games are a franchise record for a six-game span.
The Texans pass rush against a Tennessee offensive line that has allowed 33 sacks, 27 of those with Levis in the game. Right tackle has been a revolving door for the Titans with three different starters and five players who've rotated into that spot. Nicholas Petit-Frere got back into the starting lineup last week only to split the reps almost evenly with Isaiah Prince, who was flagged three times for illegal formation. The Texans have sacked Levis eight times in two games last season.
Titans: CB L'Jarius Sneed (quadriceps) will miss a fifth straight game. ... RB Tyjae Spears is in the concussion protocol. ... Houston DE Will Anderson is expected to return after missing two games with an ankle injury. ... DE Denico Autry missed practice this week with a knee injury. ... CB Kamari Lassiter should return after missing a game in the concussion protocol.
The Texans have won three straight in this rivalry between the team they replaced in Houston after the old Oilers relocated to Tennessee in 1997. They became the Titans in 1999, and they've been divisional foes since realignment in 2002. ... The Titans are 11-11 at NRG Stadium in Houston. ... Before the Texans' most recent win in this series, the previous four games all were decided by no more than a touchdown.
The Texans are among six AFC teams with at least seven wins or more and are chasing their second straight South title. ... This starts a two-game road swing for the Titans against teams with a combined record of 14-8. ... Westbrook-Ikhine leads the Titans with five TD catches all in the past six games. He had his third career 100-yard receiving performance last week with 117 yards. ... The Titans allowed 82 yards rushing last week with an average of 2.5 yards per carry. ... OLB Arden key has five sacks over the past five games. ... Titans K Nick Folk has made an NFL record streak of 84 field goals on attempts of less than 40 yards. ... Folk has 396 field goals and needs four more to tie for 14th-most all time. That also would make him the third active kicker with at least 400 field goals with Justin Tucker and Matt Prater. ... Texans QB C.J. Stroud threw for 257 yards and had 26 yards rushing against Dallas. Stroud is 6-1 in his past seven starts at home with a 90 or better passer rating in six of those games. Stroud has thrown 14 TD passes and rushed for another score with a 114.5 passer rating in eight starts in the AFC South. ... WR Nico Collins has had at least 50 yards receiving in each of his six games this season and his past 10 overall, including the playoffs. ... DE Danielle Hunter had three TFLs and two sacks last week. He has 7 1/2 sacks this season and is only the seventh NFL player since 1982 with at least six sacks in each of his first nine seasons. ... DE Denico Autry had a sack last week. Autry had 28 1/2 sacks over his past three seasons with the Titans. ... CB Derek Stingley is tied for third in the NFL with 12 passes defended this season.
Collins had four receptions for 54 yards last week in his return after missing five games with a hamstring injury. He would have had a lot more, but a 77-yard touchdown reception on the game's opening play was called back because of an ineligible man downfield. He leads the NFL by averaging 103.5 yards receiving a game.
While the rolling Astros have a week of possible World Series preview matchups against the Phillies and Cubs, it’s the Rockets who made the biggest local sports headline with their acquisition of Kevin Durant. What a move! Of course there is risk involved in trading for a guy soon to turn 37 years old and who carries an injury history, but balancing risk vs. reward is a part of the game. This is a fabulous move for the Rockets. It’s understood that there are dissenters to this view. Everyone is entitled to an opinion, including people with the wrong opinion! Let’s dig in.
The Rockets had a wonderful season in winning 52 games before their disappointing first-round playoff loss to the Warriors, but like everyone else in the Western Conference, they were nowhere close to Oklahoma City’s caliber. While they finished second in the West, the Rockets only finished four games ahead of the play-in. That letting the stew simmer with further growth among their young players would yield true championship contention was no given for 2025-26 or beyond.
Kevin Durant is one of the 10 greatest offensive players the NBA has ever seen. Among his current contemporaries only Stephen Curry and Nikola Jokic make that list. For instance, Durant offensively has clearly been better than the late and legendary Kobe Bryant. To view it from a Houston perspective, Durant has been an indisputably greater offensive force than the amazing Hakeem Olajuwon. But this is not a nostalgia trip in which the Rockets are trading for a guy based on what he used to be. While Durant could hit the wall at any point, living in fear that it’s about to happen is no way to live because KD, approaching his 18th NBA season, is still an elite offensive player.
As to the durability concern, Durant played more games (62) this past season than did Fred VanVleet, Jabari Smith, and Tari Eason. The season before he played more games (75) than did VanVleet, Dillon Brooks, and Alperen Sengun. In each of the last two seasons Durant averaged more minutes per game (36.9) than any Rocket. That was stupid and/or desperate of the Suns, the Rockets will be smarter. Not that the workload eroded Durant’s production or efficiency. Over the two seasons he averaged almost 27 points per game while shooting 52 percent from the floor, 42 percent from behind the three-point line, and 85 percent from the free throw line. Awesomeness. The Rockets made the leap to being a very good team despite a frankly crummy half-court offense. The Rockets ranked 21st among the 30 NBA teams in three-point percentage, and dead last in free throw percentage. Amen Thompson has an array of skills and looks poised to be a unique star. Alas, Thompson has no credible jump shot. VanVleet is not a creator, Smith has limited handle. Adding Durant directly addresses the Rockets’ most glaring weakness.
The price the Rockets paid was in the big picture, minimal, unless you think Jalen Green is going to become a bonafide star. Green is still just 23 years old and spectacular athletically, but nothing he has done over four pro seasons suggests he’s on the cusp of greatness. In no season has Green even shot the league average from the floor or from three. His defense has never been as good as it should be given his athleticism. Compared to some other two-guards who made the NBA move one year removed from high school, four seasons into his career Green is waaaaaay behind where Shae Gilgeous-Alexander, Anthony Edwards, and Devin Booker were four seasons in, and now well behind his draft classmate Cade Cunningham. Dillon Brooks was a solid pro in two seasons here and shot a career-best from three in 2024-2025, but he’s being replaced by Kevin Durant! In terms of the draft pick capital sent to Phoenix, five second round picks are essentially meaningless. The Rockets have multiple extra first round picks in the coming years. As for the sole first-rounder dealt away, whichever player the Rockets would have taken 10th Wednesday night would have been rather unlikely to crack the playing rotation.
VanVleet signs extension
Re-signing Fred VanVleet to a two-year, 50 million dollar guarantee is sensible. In a vacuum, VanVleet was substantially overpaid at the over 40 mil he made per season the last two. He’s a middle-of-the-pack starting point guard. But his professionalism and headiness brought major value to the Rockets’ kiddie corps while their payroll was otherwise very low. Ideally, Reed Sheppard makes a leap to look like an NBA lead guard in his second season, after a pretty much zippo of a rookie campaign. Sheppard is supposed to be a lights-out shooter. For the Rockets to max out, they need two sharpshooters on the court to balance Thompson’s presence.
For Astro-centric conversation, join Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and me for the Stone Cold ‘Stros podcast which drops each Monday afternoon, with an additional episode now on Thursday. Click here to catch!
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