The Texans trading out of round one (for now at least) drains excitement from the first night of the upcoming draft, but swapping the 23rd pick to Minnesota for the 42nd choice and gaining a second rounder next year is good value.

Chasing clicks and “likes” isn’t my thing so it was not in that vein that I Xed Tuesday night: “Unaware of any reports about Hell freezing over but the Texans are closing fast on genuine Super Bowl contender status.”

Now if only Patrick Mahomes would decide three Super Bowl rings is enough and that he’s opting for early and immediate retirement. That would help all teams that don’t have a tight end dating Taylor Swift. Alas, Mahomes figures to keep playing for a while, so the Texans have to shake it off and keep building a team capable of winning the AFC when the Chiefs do not. Which by the way could be the 2024 season.

There is still notable work to be done, but the Texans are building a plausible contender. It’s fundamentally because they landed C.J. Stroud, so striking while the iron is hot thanks to Stroud’s cheap (in NFL salary cap terms) rookie contract over the next three seasons is an absolute must. A couple of months ago I wrote that this may be General Manager Nick Caserio’s defining offseason. So far mostly so good.

The Danielle Hunter addition best represents the financial flexibility of having a low cap-cost quarterback. Two years 49 million dollars for a stud pass rusher coming off of a 16 and a half sack season to bookend with Will Anderson more than offsets Jonathan Greenard’s departure, in what plays as a de facto trade with the Vikings. Adding quality veteran Denico Autry coming off of his own 11 and a half sack season to fortify the interior pass rush is excellent. Only once in franchise history have the Texans had two players reach ten sacks in the same season. In 2015 J.J. Watt racked up 17 and a half and Whitney Mercilus added 12. They have three legit candidates for 10-plus in 2024. Now we await the positive shoe dropping following what essentially was a giveaway of Maliek Collins to San Francisco with the Texans absorbing a ten million dollar dead money cap hit. Collins had a good 2023. If the plan was Arik Armstead, bad plan since he signed with the Jaguars.

Blake Cashman had an excellent season at linebacker. It’s far from a given that replacement Azeez Al-Shaiir is a better player. The Texans shelled out eight and a half million dollars more for the new guy than Cashman got to join Greenard in Minnesota. But DeMeco Ryans earns the benefit of a doubt in preferring Al-Shaiir who played for him when DeMeco was the Niners’ defensive coordinator.

Joe Mixon is an okay get at running back but there is no chance that he is this Texans’ era’s Arian Foster. There is nothing special about Mixon, but his track record says dependable with zero fumbles the last two seasons. He last averaged more than four-point-one yards per carry in 2018. Saquon Barkley is clearly much more explosive but the Texans not unreasonably deemed him too rich for their blood. Getting Mixon in the last year of his contract (at six-point-one million dollars) at age 28 would seem to have positioned things to yield his best work if healthy. The three year 27 mil contract extension the Texans sign him to seems rich.

Devin Singletary signed what amounts to a two year, 11.75 million dollar deal with the Giants.

Adding Foley Fatukasi as a run-stuffing defensive tackle is a decent replacement for Sheldon Rankins. 2020 third overall draft pick cornerback Jeff Okudah is a worthwhile flyer especially if he is the third corner. Re-upping Steven Nelson if his market is soft would be a pleasant development.

The most glaring remaining needs are in the secondary and at guard, a young defensive tackle makes sense too. Subject to what else happens in free agency, the 42nd pick in the second round should address one of these, unless it would be a “reach” selection.

Within the AFC, beyond Kansas City only Baltimore should be thought off as definitely better than the Texans at this point, and the Ravens while adding running back Derrick Henry have lost three-fifths of their starting offensive line, Pro Bowl linebacker Patrick Queen, and solid safety Geno Stone. On the other hand, there aren’t many teams that appear absolutely inferior to the Texans: Patriots, Titans, Broncos, Chargers. This is how the NFL is designed to be. The Texans could be a better team in 2024 without producing a better record. Remember that their non-divisional home games include three division winners (Bills, Ravens, Lions) while they also play at the Chiefs and Cowboys.

The Astros’ tank phase reached its nadir over three colossally pathetic seasons in which they finished 56-106, 55-107, and 51-111. Four years later came World Series championship number one.

The Texans’ three straight colossally pathetic seasons yielded 4-12, 4-13, then 3-13-1 records. Can they win a Super Bowl four or fewer seasons later? The odds are against it but that it’s not an utterly ridiculous notion is dramatic progress,

Astros baseball is right around the corner!

As we draw nearer to Opening Day, reminder that our second season of the Stone Cold ‘Stros podcast is off and running. Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and I discuss varied Astros topics weekly. On our regular schedule the first post goes up Monday afternoon. You can get the video version (first part released Monday, second part Tuesday, sometimes a third part Wednesday) via YouTube: stone cold stros - YouTube with the complete audio available at initial release Monday via Apple Podcast, Spotify, or wherever you get your podcasts.