The Astros begin a three-game series with the Padres on Friday night. Composite image by Jack Brame.
Off splitting two games with the Dodgers the Astros go from the frying pan to the Friars as they welcome the San Diego Padres for three games at Minute Maid Park this weekend. When healthy the Dodgers and Padres probably have the two best rosters in Major League Baseball. Like for everyone else alive, for baseball teams health is the most important variable. The injury bug has bitten the Dodgers hard, the Padres less so.
This series marks the first MMP visit for shortstop Fernando Tatis Jr. who at 22 years old is the closest thing to "the face of MLB." His talent level in all areas is breathtaking, though so far this season his defense has been oddly horrible. Tatis has committed an absurd 14 errors already, in just 32 games at short. Carlos Correa has committed 11 errors. Since Opening Day 2018. That covers 286 games at short.
Correa/Tatis comparisons are natural starting with their similar bodies (Correa lists at six feet four inches 220 pounds, Tatis at six three, 217). Both made their big league debuts as 20-year-olds, oozing talent, poise, and charisma. While Correa has not achieved the greatness which seemed a good bet after he exploded on the scene and won American League Rookie of the Year while playing less than two-thirds of the 2015 season, Tatis looks to be there already though the pesky health variable that has plagued Correa over his career is also in play with him. Fernando's spectacular 2019 rookie season ended in August because of back problems. He missed time earlier this season this year with a shoulder issue, then more recently after contracting COVID. Speaking of contracting, this spring the Padres bet 340 million dollars over 14 years that Tatis will be legendary. Had the Astros made a similar bet on Correa at the same age they would regret it. Long haul excellence is what makes legends, not short bursts of awesomeness. You just never know.
The Astros' starting rotation shuffle has Framber Valdez making his season debut Friday night coming off the broken finger he suffered in his first spring training start. Saturday Jake Odorizzi returns from the injured list hoping his fourth Astros' start goes better than the three before he went down (two poor outings with the injury sustained in the third). Odorizzi matches up with the Padres' Yu Darvish who has been tremendous with his new team, a 1.75 earned run average in 10 starts. Darvish faces the Astros for the first time since they clobbered him in game seven of the 2017 World Series. The belief is Darvish was tipping some pitches in that start. He wonders about, well, you know.
NBA and NHL playoffs
It's natural for interest in the NBA playoffs to sink like a stone around here with the Rockets not a part of them for the first time in nine years. Pathetically, three of the biggest playoff stories to date are the loser in Philadelphia who threw popcorn at the Wizards' Russell Westbrook, the punk in New York who spat at the Hawks' Trae Young, and the three racists in Utah banned indefinitely from Jazz games for spewing verbal garbage. All that happened Wednesday night. The Philly and New York acts should be treated as crimes, as in misdemeanor assaults. Ejecting people from buildings and barring them from future attendance is not enough.
On the courts, the looming Nets-Bucks second round series should be a doozy in the East. A great series would be very much welcomed. The National Hockey League playoffs have been better than the NBA's just about every night. The first game seven of this postseason is Friday night with the Minnesota Wild at the Las Vegas Golden Knights. No sporting event is more intense second in second out than a close hockey game seven.
At 36 years old Michael Jordan was in his second retirement. At 36 Larry Bird, Oscar Robertson, and Jerry West were retired. At 36 Kobe Bryant was playing but basically washed up. It is underappreciated how great LeBron James remains at 36 years old. His ankle injury kept LeBron to just 45 games played this season, not enough to qualify in non-quantity league leader categories. That deprived James of a 17th consecutive season averaging at least 25 points per game. No one else has done it 12 straight.
Buzzer Beaters:
1. Speaking of contracting and the health variable, not exactly a surprise that Lance McCullers turns up on the injured list. The Astros five year 85 million dollar bet on McCullers doesn't kick in until next season.
2. Phil Mickelson has a very mixed reputation as to what kind of person he is. Regardless, his winning the PGA Championship a month shy of turning 51 was phenomenal.
3. Greatest pre-Tatis Fernandos: Bronze-Billy Crystal's Lamas. He looked mahvelous! Silver-Valenzuela Gold-ABBA's tune
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Astros-Reds opener could hinge on these critical factors
May 9, 2025, 12:30 pm
It’s been a slog on the treadmill of mediocrity for the Astros thus far in 2025. Their 18-18 record heading into a weekend series at Daikin Park vs. the Reds is appropriate. Plenty of good teams will have similar stretches this season. The Astros have to prove that this year’s edition is a good team. Plenty of time for that remains. Reminder that the breakout 2017 Astros had a 74-game stretch over which they went 37-37. 162 games allow for a lot of ebb and flow. Of course, the 2025 Astros’ roster is not close in quality to that of the 2017 squad. The point isn’t that this team could be a 101-game winner but that the 88 victories good enough for a playoff spot last year are still quite plausible this year.
The Rockets achieved mediocrity last season after three seasons as a laughingstock. This season they made the leap to good. While curling up and succumbing to Golden State in the decisive game seven of their first-round playoff series was a disappointment, the Rockets are in excellent position moving forward. Where they go from here should be quite interesting,
OF COURSE the Rockets are going to explore trading Jalen Green. He is obviously their most physically gifted player, but his consistent inconsistency is exasperating. Green’s series against the Warriors was basically an embarrassment with the exception of his 38-point game two outburst. The other six games, a meager nine-point-two points per game. That Green is still just 23 years old means it is not near obligatory they move on from him as Green starts a three-year 105 million dollar contract extension. However, the state of his game and comparison to a few specific players cast enough doubt about Green’s ceiling that declaring him “untouchable” would be ridiculous. During the Golden State series, an NBA play-by-play guy who I think is very good overall once referred to Green as the “Rockets’ superstar.” Anyone, including Green himself, who calls him a superstar either misspoke, was caught up in a moment, or is clueless.
Jalen Green just finished his fourth NBA season. Fairness requires noting that his first two seasons were compromised by being on atrocious Rockets’ squads. That said, Green was on 41-41 and 52-30 teams the past two seasons. In neither of him did he shoot a league average percentage either overall or from behind the three-point line. He did approach the three-point league average of 36 percentage made with his 35.4. That Green is an 80 percent career free throw shooter gives hope the three-point shooting can further develop. Better shot selection sure would help.
Green was the second overall pick in the 2021 NBA Draft, one year removed from high school. The player taken ahead of him was Cade Cunningham who also played just one year out of high school before going NBA. Cunningham joined a joke Detroit Pistons team. Cunningham is a much better player than Green at this point.
Other shooting guards who played one year after high school then jumped to the NBA, who were markedly ahead of Green after four NBA seasons include Anthony Edwards (first pick in his draft class), and Shae Gilgeous-Alexander (11th), and Devin Booker (13th). In comparison to each Green is a disappointment, though certainly not a bust.
What is head coach Ime Udoka’s bottom-line belief in Green fulfilling his potential? My guess is that cup is not overflowing. The Rockets’ half-court offense simply is not of championship caliber. Can it evolve there with Green, or is he better used as a piece in a trade offer with other players plus draft picks for a Booker or Kevin Duran? The Phoenix Suns are a near assets-less mess of a franchise in dire need of a reset. Durant will be 37 years old when next season starts, but is still a tremendous offensive player who would be a gargantuan half-court offense upgrade for the Rockets. The Rockets have so much draft capital that offering two or three first round picks plus Green, Cam Whitmore, and another player or two to make the salary cap math work would A: not empty out the Rockets’ flexibility going forward and B: have to get the Suns’ attention. If I’m Udoka and General Manager Rafael Stone, I’m making the call.
Courtesy of the Suns, the Rockets hold what is currently the ninth pick in the NBA Draft. The draft lottery is Monday night. The Rockets’ have a three-point-eight percent chance of winning it and the right to make Duke freshman superstar (and Final Four loser to UH) Cooper Flagg the number one pick. There is a 13.5 percent chance the Rockets move up to pick two, three, or four. Otherwise, it’s ninth, or lower if another team or teams vault up the lottery board.
For Astro-centric conversation, join Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and me for the Stone Cold ‘Stros podcast which drops each Monday afternoon, with an additional episode now on Thursday. Click here to catch!
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