SWING STUDY
How one minor adjustment was the key to unlocking Kyle Tucker
Sep 28, 2020, 2:58 pm
SWING STUDY
In early August, 2019 AL Rookie of the Year Yordan Alvarez was nearing a return to the Astros lineup, and Astros manager Dusty Baker faced a decision.
Josh Reddick or Kyle Tucker.
At that time, the answer wasn't clear. Statistically, Reddick was outperforming Tucker, Reddick had a more diverse batted ball profile that made him less predictable than Tucker, and Reddick provided more value defensively than Tucker. Aside from Tucker's lofty prospect billing, there really wasn't an objective reason for Tucker to play over Reddick.
Just shy of two months down the line, if faced with the same decision, the answer would clearly be Tucker, and it's not close. So what changed?
Image via: AT&T SportsNet/Screenshot.
On the left is an at-bat early in the season when the Dodgers came to Houston. The right hand side photo is from last week when the Diamondbacks came to town. As you can see, Tucker closed off his stance. It's crazy to think that this minute of a change can lead to such crazy results, but that's what happened.
Here is a swing against Diamondbacks starter Zac Gallen on August 6th. The offset camera angle makes Tucker's stance look a little more closed off than it really is, as this is the portion early in the year where he hadn't yet closed his stance off. Gallen throws an 83 MPH breaking ball on the outside part of the dish. It really isn't a great pitch, as it backs up on him a little bit and he hangs it, but Tucker blows out his front side, rendering him unable to do anything with that pitch other than foul it off and live to fight another day.
Now, here's an at bat against Gallen after Tucker adjusted his stance. This pitch is more center cut and hung even worse, but Tucker does something he was unable to do early in the year: drive it the other way. His closed off stance keeps his front hip from blowing out completely, and he stays on the ball and drives it down the line for a double. Notice how the ball is backspun down the line with true ball flight, not slicing, that shows just how well he drove it.
August 20th, the last game of the Seattle series before the Astros headed to Colorado, was the first time Tucker's stance was clearly closed off. Entering that game, Tucker was batting .192/.234/.329. He ended the season batting .268/.325/.512. That is quite the turnaround.
On August 6th, the day of that first swing against Gallen, Tucker had a hard hit % of 38.5%, a contact rate of 75.6%, a K% of 29.3%, and a BB% of 7.3%.
Tucker finished with a hard hit % of 44.5%. That 6% increase is the difference between the 45th percentile amongst hitters and the 78th percentile. Wow. Tucker also ended the year with a 79.5% contact percentage, a 4% increase. That significant increase helped him cut down on his strikeouts, as he ended the year with a 21.2% K%. His BB% stayed the same, as he ended at 7.1%, but three strikeouts for every walk is way better than four strikeouts for every walk.
All in all, the stance change gave Tucker more plate coverage. He still has the fast hands and instincts to react to pitches on the inner third, but instead of hooking them foul like he did, he's been keeping them fair. On top of that, Tucker now has plate coverage on the outer third of the plate, making him a more dangerous and consistent hitter. With one small change, Tucker went from a platoon bat, at best, to well above average amongst nearly every indicator of success.
The Houston Texans continue to build one of the NFL’s most intriguing wide receiver rooms — and according to Yahoo Sports analyst Matt Harmon, their new rookie additions bring more than just depth. Harmon offered insight into how the Texans might creatively deploy second-round pick Jayden Higgins and third-rounder Jaylin Noel, two players with contrasting skill sets who could carve out meaningful roles in Nick Caley's (formerly with the Rams) offense.
At first glance, Higgins fits the traditional mold of an outside receiver. At 6-foot-4 and 214 pounds, he lined up mostly as an X receiver in college and looked the part physically. But Harmon suggests that Higgins might actually be a better fit as a power slot — a big-bodied interior option who can do damage against zone coverage, similar to how the Rams used Cooper Kupp in his prime.
That role makes sense in Houston. The Texans already have one of the league’s premier outside receivers in Nico Collins, and there’s no pressure to force Higgins into a role that doesn’t maximize his skill set. According to data from Reception Perception, Higgins struggled against tight coverage in college, finishing in just the 15th percentile in success rate versus man and 16th percentile versus press. Letting Higgins attack softer coverages from the slot could be the key to unlocking his full potential.
Still, Higgins might not even be the most impactful rookie receiver the Texans landed.
While Higgins came in with the size and profile of a prototypical NFL wideout, Noel quietly outproduced him in 2024 at Iowa State and was quite often more feared by opponents. Noel’s game is built around separation and quickness — and despite being under six feet tall, there's confidence that he can play both inside and outside at the pro level. His 74.1 percent success rate versus man coverage speaks to his advanced route-running, which could earn him early targets in Houston’s pass-heavy scheme.
With Collins, Christian Kirk, Higgins, and Noel, the Texans suddenly have a flexible, matchup-proof receiving group that can attack every level of the field. If C.J. Stroud takes another step in year three, this offense could become even more dangerous — with its rookie receivers helping push it over the top.
Be sure to check out the video below to watch Harmon's full breakdown of the Texans receivers, and much more!
*ChatGPT assisted.
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