James Harden and the Rockets are just under 4-1 to win the title. But there is a better way to play. Ezra Shaw/Getty Images
Although football is behind us, some would consider this as the prime time in sports. With the conclusion of March Madness, the push for the postseason in the NBA, and Opening day approaching, the action is plenty for gamblers.
I had a friend ask me the other day about putting money on the Rockets to win the NBA Championship this year, and I hesitated to answer once I looked at the futures odds market.
Odds to according to Vegas Insider
Golden State Warriors 6/5
Houston Rockets 3.8/2
Cleveland Cavaliers 10/1
Toronto Raptors 12/1
Boston Celtics 30/1
Oklahoma City Thunder 40/1
Philadelphia 76ers 60/1
Portland Blazers 60/1
San Antonio Spurs 60/1
Washington Wizards 100/1
Utah Jazz 200/1
Indiana Pacers 400/1
Milwaukee Bucks 400/1
Minnesota Timberwolves 450/1
Miami Heat 500/1
New Orleans Pelicans 500/1
Denver Nuggets 1000/1
Los Angeles Clippers 1000/1
The Rockets currently sit as the second favorites to win the NBA title. According to Vegas Insider, they only trail the Golden State Warriors, and betting on Houston to be this year's champion will pocket you about $150-190 for every $100 you wager depending on the spot you wager at. Although some might think as this as a decent payout, I tend to think a different approach might be the best idea. Especially if you play through a local that adds the extra premium when players bet the home team.
At +150-+190 on the future wager, if you were to bet the Rockets series by series you might come out with a better payout.
For example: let's suppose the Rockets and Warriors are on a collision course that leads to the Western Conference Finals. When they do meet, will the Rockets even be favored although they hold home court? Since the 2014 season, The Rockets have fallen to the Warriors 11 times while only winning on three occasions. They did manage to win the heads-up series this year, maybe giving Houston some added confidence. Let's presume the defending champions are fully healed, the Super Team of the modern era Golden State Warriors should be slightly favored in the Western Conference finals, let's guess leaving Houston at the +125-140 range (projected). Let's suppose the Rockets pull off the upset and advance to the Finals against either Boston Cleveland or Toronto, how much would Houston be favored vs. either Eastern Conference opponent? Let's guess around the -130 to -170 range. These are all estimated figures, but using these numbers betting the series individually would ultimately net you more profit, rather than making a future bet. This can be classified as a mechanical parlay.
Using the Mechanical Parlay Method; you wagered $100 on the Warriors series in the conference finals at let's say +125, Rockets win giving you a bankroll of $225 (100+125) going into the finals. Now when you wager that $225 at anywhere between -130-170, let's suppose worse case scenario -170, your payout would be 225+ 132.35= $357.35
If you were to have bet the Rockets on the future bet at +190, or even up to +225, you wouldn't profit as much as breaking it down individually (+290/+325).
When gambling, every part of the juice matters and can ultimately make you a winning or losing gambler. Stay sharp and look for any angles you can take advantage of, or in this case, not get taken advantage of.
For any questions or comments reach me at @JerryBoKnowz on twitter.
The NFL playoffs are finally here, and the Texans will kick off the postseason by hosting the LA Chargers this Saturday at NRG.
And while the Texans are only 3 point underdogs, the national media is making it seem like Houston has no chance against Justin Herbert and company.
ESPN's Rex Ryan has gone as far as calling the Texans a "bye" week for the Chargers, giving the team no chance to win despite playing at home.
However, the Texans are no stranger to this situation, as they were given little chance to win against the Browns in last year's Wild Card game. And we know how that ended, with the Texans thrashing the Browns 45-14.
It's certainly fair to predict the Chargers will come away with a win this Saturday, they have been playing much better football than Houston in recent weeks.
But it's important to remember that home underdogs have performed well in the Wild Card round. In fact, home underdogs are 16-14 all-time in the Wild Card playoffs, and both home underdogs won last year (Texans, Buccaneers).
Speaking of last year, many credit the Texans defense for securing the win over Cleveland, with two pick sixes in the second half helping to seal the deal.
But the real reason Houston won the game was because of CJ Stroud and the offense. Stroud threw 3 touchdowns before halftime and the team was leading 24-14 with six minutes left in the third quarter. That's when the defense tacked on two interceptions for touchdowns and put the game out of reach. Stroud and the offense also went on to score another TD on a Devin Singletary run.
If Stroud and the offense didn't put so much pressure on Joe Flacco and the Cleveland offense to score, he may not have forced those passes that were picked off.
Now, many will point to the Chargers having the best defense (points allowed) this season, but it's worth noting the Browns had the number one defense (yards allowed) last year as well.
Bulls on Parade
Houston's defense will have its hands full against a strong rushing attack led by JK Dobbins. And Justin Herbert has been terrific this season, spreading the ball around to his top two targets, Ladd McConkey and Quentin Johnston.
Fortunately for the Texans, they are extremely healthy on defense this week. While Jimmy Ward and Jalen Pitre are out for the year, we'll finally get to see linebackers Azeez Al-Shaair and Christian Harris play together for the first time this season.
The defensive line is expected to be at full strength as well, keep in mind Jonathan Greenard was injured and unable to play against the Browns last year.
Outlook on offense
We should see the best possible version of the offensive line this Saturday. We're all aware how many hits Stroud has taken due to poor o-line play. But with Tytus Howard and left guard and Juice Scruggs at right guard, Stroud should have more time to get the passing game going, featuring Nico Collins.
Speaking of the receivers, it's pretty amazing that this receiver group is almost identical to last year's in the Wild Card round. Stroud didn't have Stefon Diggs (on the Bills) or Tank Dell (injured) to throw to last year, either. But he does have one big addition in Joe Mixon this year. Hopefully, they can get Mixon involved in the passing game, and the shuffling of the o-line provides Mixon with some holes to run through.
X-factor
At least there's a possibility newly acquired receiver Diontae Johnson could provide a spark to the offense. Last year John Metchie and Robert Woods were the main targets besides Collins and Dalton Schultz.
What does Vegas think?
The Chargers are favored by 3 and the total is set at 42.5 points
Don't miss the video above as the crew from Texans on Tap previews this week's big game!