UNDER THE MICROSCOPE

How the analytics paint a clear picture of why Jose Altuve is struggling

Jose Altuve has a 3 home run game against the Red Sox in game one of the ALDS.
Photo by Bob Levey/Getty Images
Jose Altuve has a 3 home run game against the Red Sox in game one of the ALDS.

The face of the Houston Astros has struggled to start 2020. Jose Altuve is slashing .187/.265/.333. That's...well...not good. No, the struggles aren't because of trash cans or buzzers. It also isn't because of mechanics. Altuve's swing looks the same this year as it has since 2016, the first year he made significant swing changes compared to when he first got called up to the big leagues. Altuve's struggles this season are most directly attributable to issues in approach and plate discipline. This likely stems from some internal pressure to succeed, but nobody really knows the answer to that other than Altuve himself.

Altuve has always had elite bat-to-ball skills. He has a career contact % of 86% (this is buoyed a bit by the few seasons at the beginning of his career). Altuve's contact % has actually gotten worse every year since 2014, which is also around the time Altuve started to overhaul his swing to drive the baseball more, so he was okay with the extra bit of swing-and-miss. Altuve's contact % so far in 2020 is 78.6%, which is actually rather pedestrian.

Why is there so much more swing-and-miss in Altuve's game? It mostly has to do with plate discipline. Altuve's chase % is up over 3% from the last three seasons, meaning he's swinging at a lot more baseballs outside the strike zone. Conversely, his Z-Swing %, which is his swing percentage at pitches in the strike zone, is 3.5% worse than last season and 3% worse than his career mark. So, Altuve is swinging at pitches in the strike zone considerably less and pitches out of the strike zone considerably more. That isn't a recipe for success. What are the results?

Altuve's O-Contact %, which is his contact rate on pitches outside the strike zone, is 8% worse than it was last season, and 13% worse than his career mark. That is MASSIVE. While he has a reputation as a bad ball hitter, he's getting worse and worse at bad ball hitting. Damage is done on pitches in the zone, even for someone with the reputation of having elite bat-to-ball skills.

Within the zone, Altuve is just fine. His Z-Contact % is 90%, which is 3% better than last year. So, it isn't that Altuve is aging and can't catch up to pitches in the zone, or that he can't hit now that he doesn't know what's coming, it's that his pitch selection is worse, and that's probably because he's trying to be the hero.

Altuve just needs to start being a little bit more selective, hunting for pitches he can drive, and then Astros fans will start seeing the Jose Altuve of old.

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The Astros beat the Phillies, 2-1. Photo by Logan Riely/Getty Images.

Cam Smith hit an RBI single in the eighth inning to give the Houston Astros a 2-1 win over the Philadelphia Phillies on Thursday.

The rookie's second hit of the game came off Orion Kerkering (5-3) and gave the Astros their fourth straight win.

Brandon Marsh tied the game on a sacrifice fly in the top of the inning to end the Phillies' 26-inning scoreless streak.

The Astros took a 1-0 lead on Yainer Diaz’s RBI single in the second inning. They only managed three more hits off Phillies starter Christopher Sanchez, who struck out 11 with zero walks over six innings. Sanchez has not issued a walk in three straight starts.

Hunter Brown lowered his league best ERA to 1.74 by scattering three singles over seven shutout innings, with nine strikeouts. He did not allow a runner to reach second base.

Bryan Abreu (3-3) struck out Trea Turner to end the eighth, and then struck out Kyle Schwarber, Alec Bohm, and Nick Castellanos in the ninth.

Abreu joined Julia Morales after the game and talked about his impressive performance!

Rafael Marchán had two of the Phillies' four hits. Bryson Stott reached base twice and scored the Phillies' lone run.

Key moment

Smith’s RBI.

Key stat

Brown’s 1.74 ERA is the fourth best in Astros history through 16 starts and the best since Justin Verlander posted a 1.60 ERA through 16 starts in 2018.

Up next

The Astros open a three-game series against the Cubs on Friday with LHP Brandon Walter (0-1 3.80 ERA) on the mound.

The Phillies open a three-game series at the Braves on Friday with RHP Mick Abel (2-1 3.47 ERA) against Atlanta RHP Bryce Elder (2-4 4.77).

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