UNDER THE MICROSCOPE

How the analytics paint a clear picture of why Jose Altuve is struggling

Jose Altuve has a 3 home run game against the Red Sox in game one of the ALDS.
Photo by Bob Levey/Getty Images
Jose Altuve has a 3 home run game against the Red Sox in game one of the ALDS.

The face of the Houston Astros has struggled to start 2020. Jose Altuve is slashing .187/.265/.333. That's...well...not good. No, the struggles aren't because of trash cans or buzzers. It also isn't because of mechanics. Altuve's swing looks the same this year as it has since 2016, the first year he made significant swing changes compared to when he first got called up to the big leagues. Altuve's struggles this season are most directly attributable to issues in approach and plate discipline. This likely stems from some internal pressure to succeed, but nobody really knows the answer to that other than Altuve himself.

Altuve has always had elite bat-to-ball skills. He has a career contact % of 86% (this is buoyed a bit by the few seasons at the beginning of his career). Altuve's contact % has actually gotten worse every year since 2014, which is also around the time Altuve started to overhaul his swing to drive the baseball more, so he was okay with the extra bit of swing-and-miss. Altuve's contact % so far in 2020 is 78.6%, which is actually rather pedestrian.

Why is there so much more swing-and-miss in Altuve's game? It mostly has to do with plate discipline. Altuve's chase % is up over 3% from the last three seasons, meaning he's swinging at a lot more baseballs outside the strike zone. Conversely, his Z-Swing %, which is his swing percentage at pitches in the strike zone, is 3.5% worse than last season and 3% worse than his career mark. So, Altuve is swinging at pitches in the strike zone considerably less and pitches out of the strike zone considerably more. That isn't a recipe for success. What are the results?

Altuve's O-Contact %, which is his contact rate on pitches outside the strike zone, is 8% worse than it was last season, and 13% worse than his career mark. That is MASSIVE. While he has a reputation as a bad ball hitter, he's getting worse and worse at bad ball hitting. Damage is done on pitches in the zone, even for someone with the reputation of having elite bat-to-ball skills.

Within the zone, Altuve is just fine. His Z-Contact % is 90%, which is 3% better than last year. So, it isn't that Altuve is aging and can't catch up to pitches in the zone, or that he can't hit now that he doesn't know what's coming, it's that his pitch selection is worse, and that's probably because he's trying to be the hero.

Altuve just needs to start being a little bit more selective, hunting for pitches he can drive, and then Astros fans will start seeing the Jose Altuve of old.

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Rockets beat the Grizzlies, 119-115. Photo by Tim Warner/Getty Images.

Alperen Sengun had 32 points and 14 rebounds, and the Houston Rockets held on to beat the Memphis Grizzlies 119-115 on Thursday night in a showdown between two of the top teams in the Western Conference.

Jalen Green finished with 27 points and Fred VanVleet scored 22 as the Rockets won their third straight and solidified their hold on second place in the Western Conference, moving 1 1/2 games ahead of Memphis.

Ja Morant scored 27 points in his return from a five-game absence with a shoulder injury, and Jaren Jackson Jr. added 21 points, eight rebounds and six blocks for Memphis. Desmond Bane had 16 points.

Houston dominated the inside early, scoring 20 points in the paint before the halfway point of the first quarter. Memphis initially couldn't stop anything at the rim. Houston opened a 17-point lead before taking a 68-63 advantage at the break.

Takeaways

Rockets: Houston is 12-5 on the road, including six straight wins away from home.

Grizzlies: After allowing the Rockets to score inside and build a big lead, Memphis chipped into the advantage to make it a more competitive game.

Key moment

With 3.8 seconds left in the game and Houston leading 117-114, Bane fired up a 3-pointer that rattled in. But Memphis coach Taylor Jenkins called timeout before the shot was made. Bane was fouled on the ensuing inbounds, and Memphis wouldn't get another chance for a winning shot.

Key stat

Houston is 19-3 when they score at least 110. Houston hasn't allowed more than 115 points in past 15 games.

Up next

The Rockets are at Atlanta on Saturday. Memphis travels to Minnesota to face the Timberwolves on Saturday.

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