UNDER THE MICROSCOPE

How the analytics paint a clear picture of why Jose Altuve is struggling

Jose Altuve has a 3 home run game against the Red Sox in game one of the ALDS.
Photo by Bob Levey/Getty Images
Jose Altuve has a 3 home run game against the Red Sox in game one of the ALDS.

The face of the Houston Astros has struggled to start 2020. Jose Altuve is slashing .187/.265/.333. That's...well...not good. No, the struggles aren't because of trash cans or buzzers. It also isn't because of mechanics. Altuve's swing looks the same this year as it has since 2016, the first year he made significant swing changes compared to when he first got called up to the big leagues. Altuve's struggles this season are most directly attributable to issues in approach and plate discipline. This likely stems from some internal pressure to succeed, but nobody really knows the answer to that other than Altuve himself.

Altuve has always had elite bat-to-ball skills. He has a career contact % of 86% (this is buoyed a bit by the few seasons at the beginning of his career). Altuve's contact % has actually gotten worse every year since 2014, which is also around the time Altuve started to overhaul his swing to drive the baseball more, so he was okay with the extra bit of swing-and-miss. Altuve's contact % so far in 2020 is 78.6%, which is actually rather pedestrian.

Why is there so much more swing-and-miss in Altuve's game? It mostly has to do with plate discipline. Altuve's chase % is up over 3% from the last three seasons, meaning he's swinging at a lot more baseballs outside the strike zone. Conversely, his Z-Swing %, which is his swing percentage at pitches in the strike zone, is 3.5% worse than last season and 3% worse than his career mark. So, Altuve is swinging at pitches in the strike zone considerably less and pitches out of the strike zone considerably more. That isn't a recipe for success. What are the results?

Altuve's O-Contact %, which is his contact rate on pitches outside the strike zone, is 8% worse than it was last season, and 13% worse than his career mark. That is MASSIVE. While he has a reputation as a bad ball hitter, he's getting worse and worse at bad ball hitting. Damage is done on pitches in the zone, even for someone with the reputation of having elite bat-to-ball skills.

Within the zone, Altuve is just fine. His Z-Contact % is 90%, which is 3% better than last year. So, it isn't that Altuve is aging and can't catch up to pitches in the zone, or that he can't hit now that he doesn't know what's coming, it's that his pitch selection is worse, and that's probably because he's trying to be the hero.

Altuve just needs to start being a little bit more selective, hunting for pitches he can drive, and then Astros fans will start seeing the Jose Altuve of old.

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CJ Stroud has to be excited about this signing! Composite Getty Image.

According to multiple reports, the Houston Texans are signing offensive tackle Cam Robinson to a 1-year contract.

KPRC2's Aaron Wilson is reporting that the 1-year deal has a max value of $14.5 million.

With Laremy Tunsil now a member of the Commanders, clearly the Texans wanted to add some more talent at the tackle position.

Rookie right tackle Blake Fisher showed some promise last season, but he also had his share of struggles, as one would expect from a first-year player.

This move provides the Texans with flexibility if they choose to play Tytus Howard at guard again, while also giving GM Nick Caserio additional options in the draft.

Many believed the Texans would be locked in on drafting an offensive lineman with their first pick, which they may still do. But now, they can focus on taking the best player available, which could very well be a receiver at No. 25 overall.

Plus, this addition will make the Texans less predictable on draft day when rival teams are trying to predict who Caserio will draft based on Houston's needs.

Robinson started all 17 games last season, splitting time between the Jaguars and the Vikings. The Vikings traded for Robinson after their starting tackle Christian Darrisaw was lost for the season to injury. With Robinson in the last year of his deal and the Jags' season setting up to be another failure, Jacksonville decided to trade their left tackle away. Robinson (age 29) was drafted by the Jaguars in the 2nd round out of Alabama in 2017.

Make no mistake about it, this is a solid pickup by the Texans!

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