UNDER THE MICROSCOPE
How the analytics paint a clear picture of why Jose Altuve is struggling
Aug 14, 2020, 11:35 am
Photo by Bob Levey/Getty Images
Jose Altuve has a 3 home run game against the Red Sox in game one of the ALDS.
The face of the Houston Astros has struggled to start 2020. Jose Altuve is slashing .187/.265/.333. That's...well...not good. No, the struggles aren't because of trash cans or buzzers. It also isn't because of mechanics. Altuve's swing looks the same this year as it has since 2016, the first year he made significant swing changes compared to when he first got called up to the big leagues. Altuve's struggles this season are most directly attributable to issues in approach and plate discipline. This likely stems from some internal pressure to succeed, but nobody really knows the answer to that other than Altuve himself.
Altuve has always had elite bat-to-ball skills. He has a career contact % of 86% (this is buoyed a bit by the few seasons at the beginning of his career). Altuve's contact % has actually gotten worse every year since 2014, which is also around the time Altuve started to overhaul his swing to drive the baseball more, so he was okay with the extra bit of swing-and-miss. Altuve's contact % so far in 2020 is 78.6%, which is actually rather pedestrian.
Why is there so much more swing-and-miss in Altuve's game? It mostly has to do with plate discipline. Altuve's chase % is up over 3% from the last three seasons, meaning he's swinging at a lot more baseballs outside the strike zone. Conversely, his Z-Swing %, which is his swing percentage at pitches in the strike zone, is 3.5% worse than last season and 3% worse than his career mark. So, Altuve is swinging at pitches in the strike zone considerably less and pitches out of the strike zone considerably more. That isn't a recipe for success. What are the results?
Altuve's O-Contact %, which is his contact rate on pitches outside the strike zone, is 8% worse than it was last season, and 13% worse than his career mark. That is MASSIVE. While he has a reputation as a bad ball hitter, he's getting worse and worse at bad ball hitting. Damage is done on pitches in the zone, even for someone with the reputation of having elite bat-to-ball skills.
Within the zone, Altuve is just fine. His Z-Contact % is 90%, which is 3% better than last year. So, it isn't that Altuve is aging and can't catch up to pitches in the zone, or that he can't hit now that he doesn't know what's coming, it's that his pitch selection is worse, and that's probably because he's trying to be the hero.
Altuve just needs to start being a little bit more selective, hunting for pitches he can drive, and then Astros fans will start seeing the Jose Altuve of old.
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Jason Heyward hit a two-run homer early and Jon Singleton had three hits, capped by a tiebreaking RBI single in Houston’s four-run eighth inning, and the Astros got a 6-3 win over the Oakland Athletics on Thursday.
SAY HEY!!#Relentless pic.twitter.com/fqAiUHHdNh
— Houston Astros (@astros) September 12, 2024
Brent Rooker homered off Ryan Pressly (2-3) with one out in the eighth to tie it at 2-all.
Yainer Diaz and Kyle Tucker hit consecutive singles with one out in the eighth to chase T.J. McFarland (2-3) and bring on Grant Holman. There were two outs in the inning when Singleton’s single to center field scored Diaz to put the Astros on top.
Jake Meyers followed with a run-scoring double before the Athletics intentionally walked Heyward to load the bases. Mauricio Dubón singled on a ground ball to left field to score two more, pushing the lead to 6-2.
Tyler Nevin hit a solo homer off Josh Hader with one out in the ninth before the closer retired the next two batters to end it.
Houston’s Framber Valdez allowed five hits and a run with six strikeouts in 6 1/3 innings to help the Astros avoid a three-game sweep and snap a three-game skid with the victory.
La Grasa had himself a day.#Relentless pic.twitter.com/LvGeKBAoqA
— Houston Astros (@astros) September 12, 2024
Oakland starter Mitch Spence permitted seven hits and two runs in seven innings.
Singleton hit a ground-rule double with one out in the second before Heyward smacked a line drive into the second row in right field for his first home run as an Astro to make it 2-0.
It was the third hit in 12 games with Houston for Heyward, who signed with the Astros Aug. 29 after being released by the Dodgers.
Jacob Wilson doubled to open the seventh and moved to third on a ground out by Nevin. The Athletics cut the lead to 1 when Wilson scored on a single by Daz Cameron that chased Valdez.
Bryan Abreu took over and pinch-hitter Seth Brown grounded into a double play on his second pitch to preserve the lead.
Lawrence Butler doubled with one out in the third to extend his career-long hitting streak to 20 games.
Singleton doubled again to start Houston’s fourth before Spence sat down the next 11 Astros. Houston’s next base runner came on a double by Dubón with two outs in the seventh and Alex Bregman grounded out to leave him stranded.
Trainer’s Room
Athletics: 1B Tyler Soderstrom (left wrist injury) is scheduled to come off the injured list Friday for the start of a series against the White Sox.
Astros: 2B Jose Altuve was out of the lineup Thursday, a day after leaving in the fifth inning with discomfort in his right side. Manager Joe Espada said he was feeling better Thursday and that he is listed as day to day.
Up Next
Athletics: LHP Brady Basso (0-0, 1.93 ERA) will start for Oakland against LHP Garrett Crochet (6-11, 3.83) in the opener of a three-game series against the Chicago White Sox Friday night.
Astros: Houston LHP Yusei Kikuchi (8-9, 4.31) opposes LHP Samuel Aldegheri (1-1, 2.45) in the first of three games against the Los Angeles Angels Friday night.