Tom Herman's teams are 13-0 against the spread as an underdog. Tim Warner/Getty Images
Finished 2-1-1 last weekend, with the only loss being a $25 parlay. Overall a profit- and during the grind it out weeks of football season we will take it. Never force anything when you are down, and always try and analyze your mistakes and make corrections. Last week my mistake was an emotional bias towards the Chiefs – a line that told me to stay away or play Pittsburgh.
It is going to be a huge Saturday night in sports. USC/Notre Dame, Michigan/Penn State, and Astros Game 7. Flip between USC/Notre Dame and the Astros. No need to worry about Michigan throwing 5 interceptions. DVR that garbage QB play.
USC +4 @ Notre Dame – Notre Dame has burned me several times this year. However, I think people are too down on a USC team that really has not impressed all year. This game was a pick-em preseason. 4 points is too big of a swing for me. If Sam Darnold is right, this game is close, and USC can win.
Arizona State @ Utah -6.5 first half. – Utah is very physical and should over power a soft Arizona State team coming off one of their biggest wins in program history. Arizona State might be able to throw their way back into this one second half. I look for Utah to control the line of scrimmage and punch Arizona State in the mouth early. Hard to get up for Utah after last weekend.
Indiana/Michigan State Over 46- 9 of the last 10 times these two teams have played each other they have gone over 46. The only under was last year at 45.
Oklahoma State @ Texas +7- There are several trends that point to OK St – but Tom Herman has his team in the underdog role again. Herman is 13-0 ATS as a underdog dating back to his OC days at Ohio State. That’s a long time to cover.
Kansas +39 @ TCU – Disgusting, I know. Go searching for the last time TCU covered against Kansas… Next, find the last home game TCU covered. I’m playing Kansas. Something is wrong with me.
Ravens/Vikings Under 38 Both teams really struggle to score at times. Should be a low scoring game.
Any questions please hit me up on Twitter @jayoff288W
Wake Forest was the last game cut off my card for what it is worth.
Hope your weekend is profitable.
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The 2025 season hasn't gone according to script for the Houston Astros. Injuries, slumps, and a retooled roster have left fans asking whether this version of the Astros is underwhelming—or if, given all the turmoil, they might actually be overachieving.
When Houston dealt Kyle Tucker, a franchise cornerstone, the move raised eyebrows. Tucker was a consistent producer and an anchor in right field. In return, the Astros received infielder Isaac Paredes, pitcher Hayden Wesneski, and third baseman now outfielder Cam Smith—players who didn’t bring the same star power but offered versatility and upside.
Paredes has delivered as advertised. He’s brought steady production at the plate and the ability to play a solid third base. While he may not be with the team beyond 2027 if the front office sticks to its recent pattern of letting players walk in free agency, his presence right now is stabilizing an otherwise inconsistent lineup.
Then there’s Cam Smith, who might be the real key to this deal. After a slow start and questions about whether he or Zach Dezenzo was the better option in right field, Smith has surged. Over the past 30 days, he’s hit north of .300 and shown signs of becoming a long-term fixture. The biggest question now is positional: Is he Houston’s future in right field, or could he eventually slide over to third base if/when Paredes departs? That decision will ripple through future roster planning and could define how this trade is remembered.
In the meantime, however, he’s shown flashes of being a quality everyday player. But it’s not uncommon for young hitters to take a step back after an initial surge. The Astros need him to keep proving it, but the potential is unmistakable.
Underwhelming or overachieving?
Elsewhere on the roster, the results are mixed. Players like Jake Meyers and Victor Caratini, who came into the season with modest expectations, have performed admirably. Meanwhile, stars like José Altuve, Christian Walker, and Yainer Díaz have underperformed, leaving the offensive output uneven. Add in the extended absence of Yordan Álvarez and the loss of three-fifths of the starting rotation, and it's fair to say Houston has had more than its share of adversity.
King of the hill
One area where the Astros have arguably found a diamond in the rough is Bryan King. With a 1.52 ERA in 2025, King has passed the eye test as a potential long-term solution in high-leverage relief situations. He’s been more than capable, building on a solid 2.39 ERA in 2024. His performance has solidified his place in the bullpen, and he’s taken on ownership of his role. However, it’s important for the Astros to temper expectations, especially after the lessons learned from the Rafael Montero signing. King looks like the real deal, but he still has a ways to go before being considered a true elite option out of the 'pen.
What should we make of the Alex Bregman quad injury?
Bregman’s injury doesn’t really change the conversation around whether the Astros should have extended him. If anything, it highlights the complexity of roster decisions. Houston could’ve kept Bregman, shifted Paredes to first base, and potentially avoided spending big on Christian Walker. But injuries are part of the game—Yordan Álvarez has missed nearly half the season, and no one’s suggesting the Astros should regret signing him. Kyle Tucker missed significant time last year, too, and he’s about to land a massive contract. Players get hurt. That’s baseball.
Moving forward
While the Astros have struggled with injuries and inconsistent performances, they have managed to remain competitive—perhaps even overachieving given the circumstances. The team's depth, the surprising performances from certain players, and the emergence of promising new talent have allowed them to hold their ground, currently possessing a Wild Card spot in the AL if the season were to end today.
There's so much more to discuss! Don't miss the video below as we examine the topics above and much, much more!
The MLB season is finally upon us! Join Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and Charlie Pallilo for the Stone Cold ‘Stros podcast which drops each Monday afternoon, with an additional episode now on Thursday!
*ChatGPT assisted.
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