Tom Herman's teams are 13-0 against the spread as an underdog. Tim Warner/Getty Images
Finished 2-1-1 last weekend, with the only loss being a $25 parlay. Overall a profit- and during the grind it out weeks of football season we will take it. Never force anything when you are down, and always try and analyze your mistakes and make corrections. Last week my mistake was an emotional bias towards the Chiefs – a line that told me to stay away or play Pittsburgh.
It is going to be a huge Saturday night in sports. USC/Notre Dame, Michigan/Penn State, and Astros Game 7. Flip between USC/Notre Dame and the Astros. No need to worry about Michigan throwing 5 interceptions. DVR that garbage QB play.
USC +4 @ Notre Dame – Notre Dame has burned me several times this year. However, I think people are too down on a USC team that really has not impressed all year. This game was a pick-em preseason. 4 points is too big of a swing for me. If Sam Darnold is right, this game is close, and USC can win.
Arizona State @ Utah -6.5 first half. – Utah is very physical and should over power a soft Arizona State team coming off one of their biggest wins in program history. Arizona State might be able to throw their way back into this one second half. I look for Utah to control the line of scrimmage and punch Arizona State in the mouth early. Hard to get up for Utah after last weekend.
Indiana/Michigan State Over 46- 9 of the last 10 times these two teams have played each other they have gone over 46. The only under was last year at 45.
Oklahoma State @ Texas +7- There are several trends that point to OK St – but Tom Herman has his team in the underdog role again. Herman is 13-0 ATS as a underdog dating back to his OC days at Ohio State. That’s a long time to cover.
Kansas +39 @ TCU – Disgusting, I know. Go searching for the last time TCU covered against Kansas… Next, find the last home game TCU covered. I’m playing Kansas. Something is wrong with me.
Ravens/Vikings Under 38 Both teams really struggle to score at times. Should be a low scoring game.
Any questions please hit me up on Twitter @jayoff288W
Wake Forest was the last game cut off my card for what it is worth.
Hope your weekend is profitable.
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The Houston Texans have a big challenge in store as they look to start the season with a win against the Colts this Sunday. When these two teams met in Week 2 last year, the Colts dominated the Texans, despite losing their QB Anthony Richardson to a concussion after the first quarter.
Keeping Richardson contained on Sunday will go a long way in increasing the Texans' chances of coming home with a win. The Texans defense will have their hands full containing the Colts backs and tight ends in the passing game.
Scoring touchdowns with their wide receivers could prove difficult, as the Texans allowed the second-fewest TDs (10) to the receiver position in 2023.
Limiting running back Jonathan Taylor will also be a top priority. While the Texans had an elite defense against the run last season, they struggled with Taylor in Week 18 as he almost rushed for 200 yards.
Houston's D allowed only four carries to running backs in 2023 that went for 20 or more yards. Two of which were to Taylor in the final game of the regular season.
Finally, DeMeco Ryans and company have to find a way to get pressure on the QB. They only had one QB hit and zero sacks on Richardson and Garner Minshew the first time they faced off last year.
On offense, the Texans have two big x-factors to watch for on Sunday. The offensive line that suited up to play the Colts in Week 2 last season is completely different from this year.
The o-line was ravaged with injuries to start the 2023 campaign, so we expect a big jump in productivity in the trenches this year.
Another big addition in 2024 is the presence of running back Joe Mixon. The running game only produced 2 yards per rush in Week 2 against Indy last year, so there's clearly room for improvement.
Be sure to watch the video above for our in-depth preview of Texans-Colts!
And catch Texans on Tap (a Texans podcast) live on our SportsMapTexans YouTube channel following every game this season!