Photo by Bob Levey/Getty Images
After losing Game One of the ALCS by putting a donut in the run column, a lot of Astros fans panicked. Some blamed Zack Greinke, some blamed the bats, others gave the Yankees too much credit. While they did play well enough to earn that win, there were several instances in which the Astros shot themselves in the foot. Game Two came along and fans were happy because Justin Verlander was on the mound. Verlander pitched 6 2/3 innings, only giving up two runs, and deserved to have won that game. The team won 3-2 thanks to Carlos Correa's walk-off home run in the bottom of the 11th inning, but Verlander got a no decision.
With the series tied 1-1 and headed to the Bronx for the next three games, there's still reason for optimism. Despite the poor performances at the plate by the lineup, despite the bullpen concerns, despite not having faith in anyone not named Verlander or Gerrit Cole, I still believe in this team's chances to win, dammit! And here's why:
Correa's home run was a spark
Going back to Correa's home run, I think it sparks something for this team. Moments like this can galvanize a team and start a movement. Remember back in 2017 when "Club Astros" was a thing? Remember how loose this team played? Right now, they're more the hunted than the hunters. The pressure has built up and it may be getting to them, especially given how tight they seem to be at the plate. Maybe Correa's walk-off (with the ensuing antics) are a way to light a fire underneath this team? Don't be surprised to see the dugout get more lively and/or better, more loose plate appearances.
Aaron Boone panicked
In Game Two, I think Yankee's manager Aaron Boone panicked. He pulled starter James Paxton after 2 1/3 innings pitched and proceeded to use eight more pitchers the rest of the way. A couple of those guys were/are potential Game Four starters, or they're reliable bullpen arms who were called into duty too soon. Their bullpen is better than what the Astros have, but they're tired out early in this series, advantage Astros. If Boone continues to manage scared to lose, again, advantage Astros.
Cole > Luis Severino in Game Three
Severino was quoted as saying he's not nervous about facing off against Cole in Game Three and having to outduel him (I'm paraphrasing here). He thinks that all he has to do is match what Cole does. Mind you, Severino has only pitched in three games since returning from injury. Sure he was their ace to start this season, but at 25 years old with only a handful of experience, do we really think he can hang with Cole? Answer: HELL NAH! The Astros haven't lost a Cole start since Prohibition. He's either the Cy Young winner this season, or runner-up. Cole had 326 K's this season and 25 in his two postseason starts. Good luck keeping up Luis! (sarcasm font for the humor-impaired).
Injuries
No team was hit harder by the injury bug than the Yankees this season. They had 4,672 guys on their roster miss time due to injury this season. The Astros were bit by the injury bug as well, but not as bad. That being said, I think the Yankees have a Mr. Glass feel to them. They're the more injury-prone team of the two. While they embodied the "next man up" mentality this season, the Astros did as well. The difference lies in the fact that one of their biggest bats (Giancarlo Stanton) missed Game Two because of a right quadricep strain and is day to day, while the Astros biggest injury concern this past season just won Game Two via walk-off. Again, advantage Astros.
Managerial Experience
AJ Hinch > Brett Boone. There it is. I'm done with this section. If you need further explanation, seek help elsewhere because I don't have the crayons or enough three-line kindergarten paper to explain this to you.
Bottom line here folks: while the Yankees appear to have flipped homefield advantage by winning Game One, the Astros will #TakeItBack and win at least one or two in the Bronx. I'm calling it now: Astros in six, no more than seven. This team is just too damn good and too loaded to clam up and go home like they did last year against the Red Sox. If they only win every Verlander and Cole starts in this series (or maybe squeak out another), they got this series in the bag. Like I mentioned last week, there's no need to panic. this team is fully capable of winning another World Series. Let's take it one game at a time and keep the faith.
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The Houston Texans and Buffalo Bills both enter Week 5 with identical records, looking to continue their strong early-season performances. The Texans, led by breakout quarterback C.J. Stroud, come off a thrilling 24-20 win over Jacksonville, while the Bills are seeking to bounce back after a disappointing 35-10 loss to Baltimore.
Bet MGM NFL Odds: Bills favored by 1
Against the Spread: Buffalo 2-2, Houston 0-3-1
Series Record: Texans lead 6-5
Last Meeting: Bills defeated Texans 40-0 (Oct. 3, 2021)
Key matchups and players to watch
Texans WR Nico Collins:
Collins has been one of the most productive receivers in the NFL this season, leading the league with 489 receiving yards. Coming off a career-best performance with 12 catches for 151 yards and a touchdown against Jacksonville, Collins will be a key target for Stroud against Buffalo’s strong secondary.
Bills DE A.J. Epenesa:
With Von Miller suspended, Epenesa will be expected to step up as Buffalo’s primary pass rusher. Epenesa has one sack through four starts and needs to take on a larger role with the absence of Miller, who leads the NFL's active players in sacks.
Texans WR Stefon Diggs vs. Former Team:
Diggs, who was traded to the Texans in the offseason, will face his former team for the first time. He has been productive for Houston, logging 233 yards and two receiving touchdowns this season, as well as his first career rushing touchdown last week.
Key injuries
The Bills face multiple injury concerns, including linebacker Terrel Bernard, cornerback Taron Johnson, and safety Taylor Rapp, all of whom are questionable. Buffalo's leading receiver Khalil Shakir (ankle) has been ruled out. The Texans could see the return of WR Tank Dell after he missed last week, though RB Joe Mixon is not expected to play. LT Laremy Tunsil is questionable, which could impact their offensive game plan.
Update: Aaron Wilson has the latest on which Texans players are practicing on Friday.
#Texans Joe Mixon remains out of practice and not expected to play Sunday against #Bills Dameon Pierce returns, Tytus Howard sidelined @KPRC2 https://t.co/DR0IKzAC7C
— Aaron Wilson (@AaronWilson_NFL) October 4, 2024
Team stats and trends
Bills Offense:
Buffalo’s offense ranks second in scoring but has been inconsistent, as seen in their 10-point showing against the Ravens last week. Josh Allen, while turnover-prone in the past, is on a four-game streak without throwing an interception.
Texans Defense:
Houston’s defense has been a standout, ranking fifth overall and excelling against the pass, which could be key against the Bills' passing attack. However, their 40 penalties this season have been a major issue, and they'll need more discipline to keep pace with Buffalo.
Texans Offense:
Houston's passing game has been stellar, with Stroud leading the Texans to the 8th-best offense overall and the 3rd-ranked passing attack. This will be a critical factor against Buffalo’s defense, which ranks 6th against the pass.
Fantasy tip
Look for Nico Collins to continue his dominant streak as Stroud’s top target. Collins has over 80 receiving yards in six straight games, the longest active streak in the NFL.
Final thoughts
This matchup pits a strong Texans passing game against a resilient Bills defense. Buffalo holds the slight edge in the spread, and with both teams vying for a crucial win, this should be a hard-fought contest.
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ChatGPT contributed to this content.