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After losing Game One of the ALCS by putting a donut in the run column, a lot of Astros fans panicked. Some blamed Zack Greinke, some blamed the bats, others gave the Yankees too much credit. While they did play well enough to earn that win, there were several instances in which the Astros shot themselves in the foot. Game Two came along and fans were happy because Justin Verlander was on the mound. Verlander pitched 6 2/3 innings, only giving up two runs, and deserved to have won that game. The team won 3-2 thanks to Carlos Correa's walk-off home run in the bottom of the 11th inning, but Verlander got a no decision.
With the series tied 1-1 and headed to the Bronx for the next three games, there's still reason for optimism. Despite the poor performances at the plate by the lineup, despite the bullpen concerns, despite not having faith in anyone not named Verlander or Gerrit Cole, I still believe in this team's chances to win, dammit! And here's why:
Correa's home run was a spark
Going back to Correa's home run, I think it sparks something for this team. Moments like this can galvanize a team and start a movement. Remember back in 2017 when "Club Astros" was a thing? Remember how loose this team played? Right now, they're more the hunted than the hunters. The pressure has built up and it may be getting to them, especially given how tight they seem to be at the plate. Maybe Correa's walk-off (with the ensuing antics) are a way to light a fire underneath this team? Don't be surprised to see the dugout get more lively and/or better, more loose plate appearances.
Aaron Boone panicked
In Game Two, I think Yankee's manager Aaron Boone panicked. He pulled starter James Paxton after 2 1/3 innings pitched and proceeded to use eight more pitchers the rest of the way. A couple of those guys were/are potential Game Four starters, or they're reliable bullpen arms who were called into duty too soon. Their bullpen is better than what the Astros have, but they're tired out early in this series, advantage Astros. If Boone continues to manage scared to lose, again, advantage Astros.
Cole > Luis Severino in Game Three
Severino was quoted as saying he's not nervous about facing off against Cole in Game Three and having to outduel him (I'm paraphrasing here). He thinks that all he has to do is match what Cole does. Mind you, Severino has only pitched in three games since returning from injury. Sure he was their ace to start this season, but at 25 years old with only a handful of experience, do we really think he can hang with Cole? Answer: HELL NAH! The Astros haven't lost a Cole start since Prohibition. He's either the Cy Young winner this season, or runner-up. Cole had 326 K's this season and 25 in his two postseason starts. Good luck keeping up Luis! (sarcasm font for the humor-impaired).
Injuries
No team was hit harder by the injury bug than the Yankees this season. They had 4,672 guys on their roster miss time due to injury this season. The Astros were bit by the injury bug as well, but not as bad. That being said, I think the Yankees have a Mr. Glass feel to them. They're the more injury-prone team of the two. While they embodied the "next man up" mentality this season, the Astros did as well. The difference lies in the fact that one of their biggest bats (Giancarlo Stanton) missed Game Two because of a right quadricep strain and is day to day, while the Astros biggest injury concern this past season just won Game Two via walk-off. Again, advantage Astros.
Managerial Experience
AJ Hinch > Brett Boone. There it is. I'm done with this section. If you need further explanation, seek help elsewhere because I don't have the crayons or enough three-line kindergarten paper to explain this to you.
Bottom line here folks: while the Yankees appear to have flipped homefield advantage by winning Game One, the Astros will #TakeItBack and win at least one or two in the Bronx. I'm calling it now: Astros in six, no more than seven. This team is just too damn good and too loaded to clam up and go home like they did last year against the Red Sox. If they only win every Verlander and Cole starts in this series (or maybe squeak out another), they got this series in the bag. Like I mentioned last week, there's no need to panic. this team is fully capable of winning another World Series. Let's take it one game at a time and keep the faith.
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The Houston Texans head to Green Bay this weekend to play in one of the most highly anticipated matchups of the season.
On offense, the Texans will look to maintain the boost Joe Mixon and Dameon Pierce provided to the running game last week against the Patriots.
Despite Houston's success with the ground game against the Pats, there are some concerns. Most of the production came from two explosive runs. They ranked in the Bottom 5 in success rate (26.9%) and Top 10 in stuff rate (23.1%) amongst all teams in Week 6.
Despite the volume against New England, Houston's run game on Sunday:
Ranked Bottom 5 in success rate (26.9%) and Top 10 in stuff rate (23.1%) amongst all teams in Week 6.
Lots of inefficient runs with huge gains sprinkled in-between. Is that sustainable? #HTownMade
— John Crumpler (@JohnHCrumpler) October 15, 2024
Air it out
The passing game once again will go through Tank Dell and Stefon Diggs with Nico Collins sidelined. Dell received a large portion of the downfield work that Collins had been doing.
Tank posted the highest route win rate and average separation score for Houston in Week 6, per Jacob Gibbs, and Fantasy Points Data.
In what should be a high scoring game, expect Dell to be Stroud's main target downfield.
What about the defense?
The Texans defense is 30th in EPA against play action, so don't be surprised if that's how the Packers will try to get some big plays down field.
D'Angelo Ross stepped in at corner with Kamari Lassiter injured last week. He lined up at the left corner spot, where Packers receiver Christian Watson will likely run the majority of his routes this week.
With Derek Stingley lining up outside on the right, he'll be facing Romeo Doubs a majority of the time. We expect Doubs will have a quiet day and the Packers will target Watson against Ross, and Jayden Daniels in the slot versus Jalen Pitre.
Texans head coach DeMeco Ryans has been dialing up the blitz more and more. And that looks like a good idea once again this week, as Love is 28th in QBR when blitzed this season.
What does Vegas think?
The Packers are favored by 2.5 points, with the total set at 47.5 points.
There are so many more angles to cover in this exciting matchup. Don't miss the video above as we break it all down! And head to the SportsMap Texans YouTube channel right after the game as we react live!