In 2015 when the Dallas Cowboys made the controversial decision to sign convicted domestic abuser Greg Hardy, I wondered to myself what exactly it would take for me to stop being a fan of a team I grew up watching.
Monday I learned just that, only instead for the Texans.
Wednesday was validation.
No, it wasn't a singular egregious act. Instead, it was a slow burn. It was year after year of incompetent ax swinging to the trunk of my fandom that finally compromised its integrity, causing the whole thing to come crashing down.
I didn't come to the decision easily. I've been a fan since before learning that they had chosen the dumbest name in professional football. I even remember watching game one against the Cowboys in my room as a kid on a little 13" tube TV, trying to read out player names in between static caused by my rabbit-ear antenna. But just like any relationship that's gone on longer than it should, instead of noticing a need for change, I found it easier to ignore the stack of issues, continue being a fan, and hope for the best.
"Maybe they'll change!"
"They didn't mean to let the greatest player in franchise history leave unceremoniously for our rival!"
So let's examine the three biggest strikes that led to this public breakup:
17: "Tom's the starter."
After giving up two first round picks (and then some) to move up in the draft and claim collegiate star quarterback Deshaun Watson, you would have thought Bill O'Brien was being forced to work with a brother-in-law with body odor. He seemed thoroughly hesitant on trusting the rookie QB, and an actual competition between him and incumbent starter Tom Savage seemed unlikely. Watson hardly touched the field, and when he did that glimmer of brilliance would show through. Even still, come week one O'Brien had handed the keys to Savage, who immediately drove them into a brick wall.
Now, I didn't think Savage was better than Watson, but I also understood not starting Watson from the outset. There are cases all throughout league history that show that letting your quarterback sit his first year and study the game has a lot of merit. But if you're going to do it, you need to stick to it. So how long did O'Brien stick it?
Less than one game.
That's about the time I really started perking my ears up to the issues with the Texans. Any coach that honestly thought Savage brought more to the table than Watson is beyond worthy of skepticism. To then fold one half of a game into the season on a stance you had taken for the past four months prior should make you wonder just how quick he is to abandon game plans when they go awry.
2020: Bill O'Brien, General Manager
The Texans have always come across as a team seemingly content with being merely decent. Another perception is that ownership is simply loyal to a fault, and willing to give a coach and/or GM time to fully realize their plan. So when the nobly fired Gary Kubiak mid season just weeks after collapsing on the sidelines of a game, I turned a blind eye to the callousness and did my best to be optimistic with the team's potential. The Texans pounced on former offensive coordinator Bill O'Brien at the first chance they had and his fiery nature initially had me pretty pumped.
That was 2014.
That fiery nature has since morphed into simple pettiness, be it with refs, the media, the fans, and his players as well. O'Brien sports a disappointing 52-44 record in one of the most perennially disappointing divisions in football, and is constantly exposed as a fraud in the postseason. This was no more so apparent than this past season's divisional round, where the Texans not only blew a 24-0 lead but were beaten by 20 points.
So what do you do with a guy like that? Promote him, obviously. And what does a guy like that do once promoted? Fired people he didn't like, obviously.
The pettiness is palpable and yet despite the ineptitude and awful image problem, ownership stopped looking loyal and started looking content.
March 16, 2020: The trade
We were all expecting something questionable to come from O'Brien's first full offseason with full control, we just didn't realize how immediate it would be. But through their own draft failings and questionable trade machinations, the Texans headed into the 2020 offseason strapped for cash and in what is affectionately referred to as "draft hell."
So the Texans made a trade. The initial report?
"Texans trading for Cardinals RB David Johnson."
"Ok," I'm thinking. "He's kind of a retread, but they got a lot of value out of Carlos Hyde the year before. Not a bad pickup."
Then the other shoe dropped.
"Cardinals to receive WR DeAndre Hopkins."
That was it. When I realized it wasn't a joke, I was done. In no way did that trade make the Texans better, relieve noticeable cap space, or provide draft capital. It was the only example left that I needed to prove just how poorly managed the Texans are from top to bottom.
So I declared that day that until Bill O'Brien is gone, I will take my fandom elsewhere. And that's what it's going to take from everyone.
"The only thing necessary for the triumph of [terrible coaching/ownership] is for good [fans] to do nothing."
-Edmund Burke, sort of.
It's true though. I've been called a quitter and a fake fan (of 18 years I guess) since I made that announcement. But if anything is going to ever actually change, it's going to need to come from the stands. Only when the McNairs see a change in their balance sheet at the end of the season will they consider removing O'Brien from the obscene amount of power he currently holds. If you truly love your Texans, the best thing you could do is not "weather the storm," but walk away. Most wont, though, and that's why Grumpy Bill will keep his job.
In the meantime, I'll be planning an awesome road trip to our sister city to watch my new team in the Big Easy.
WHO DAT!
Four Downs of the Week (from hell):
1st Down: Every athlete and organization pledging money toward stadium workers
That doesn't include our own billionaire Rockets owner Tillman Ferttita, who's actually slashing benefits at the moment. But in the most extraordinary time in most of our lives, it's heartwarming to see people and organizations banding together to help those most affected by the circumstances.
2nd Down: Using technology for good.
Once again, it's refreshing to see acts of kindness in crumby situations. The following are a few examples of organizations doing wonderful PR moves to our collective benefit while we're all spending a little more time at home:
From the NBA
JUST IN: The @NBA has given the masses a lot more to watch, as League Pass is now FREE. In absence of live games, fans have access to classic games and full length and condensed replays of all games from this season.
— Darren Rovell (@darrenrovell) March 18, 2020
From the NFL
The league just announced that NFL Game Pass will be offered free of charge until May 31 to fans in the US. pic.twitter.com/jpOsAAcL1t
— NFL Update (@MySportsUpdate) March 18, 2020
And, my favorite, a collaboration with Netflix and Google
Quarantine and chill?
With a Google Chrome extension called Netflix Party, groups of friends can get together virtually and watch Netflix at the same time. It even comes with a chat room, so you can share your reactions. https://t.co/8qrGmp2cO8
— USA TODAY (@USATODAY) March 18, 2020
3rd down: Test shortages, but not for athletes apparently
Does anyone else find it convenient that a league of millionaire athletes in peak physical form managed to get their hands on desparately needed coronavirus testing kits, while the rest of the country waits for hours in hospitals?
4th down:
We all know what fourth down is. Stay safe, everyone.
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So where does one turn now in Houston for mediocre, overpriced salsa? I kid, I kid. While wondering if Breggy Baked Beans are on the horizon. Congrats to Alex Bregman and agent Scott Boras for landing an on its face outlandish three-year 120-million dollar contract with the Boston Red Sox. With deferred money part of the deal the contract will be valuated in the neighborhood of “only” three years 90 million. Would Bregman have taken that from the Astros if offered? The Astros’ six-year 156-million dollar proposal was 26 mil per season. Bregman has the right to opt out after each of the first two seasons of his BoSox deal. If his decline (while still a very good player) of the last two seasons continues, or even if he holds steady, there is near zero chance of Bregman opting out unless he hates life in New England. At the end of the three years, will Bregman be able to land a three-year 66 million-dollar deal when he’s about to turn 34 years old? That plus the 90 mil with deferrals accounted for in his new deal would total 156 million. Massachusetts taxes personal income of just over a million dollars and upward at a nine percent rate. Playing half his games in the Bay State, Bregman will pay Massachusetts tax on half his salary.
Reminders...
Bregman obviously had an excellent Astros’ career, among non-pitchers he is top 10 all-time, but the excellence was frontloaded. Over Bregman’s first three big seasons he compiled a .289 batting average and .924 OPS. Elite numbers. Over the five seasons since: .261 and .795. Good, nothing legendary. After his monster MVP runner-up 2019 season (stats aided by the juiced balls of that season) Bregman was on a strong early Hall of Fame track. Now not so much, without some offensive resurgence. Fenway Park should suit Bregman well. He’ll bang singles and doubles off of the Green Monster, though the much higher than Crawford Boxes wall will not goose his home run numbers. In his time with the Astros Bregman mashed at Fenway with a .375 batting average and 1.240 OPS. That’s in a statistically not very significant 98 regular season plate appearances.
It is myth that Bregman in the postseason was some relentless hitting machine. He posted phenomenal numbers over seven Division Series batting .333 with an OPS over 1.000. Over 68 American League Championship Series and World Series games: batting average .196, OPS sub-.700.
For his career, Bregman’s worst month of performance by far has been April (plus any days in March, .737 OPS). In 2024 Bregman was baseball garbage into mid-May. Should a typical slow start happen again, we’ll see what the Fenway faithful patience level is. By far, Bregman’s best batting month has been August (.992 OPS). As it works out, both Astros-Red Sox series are in August this year. First in Boston August 1-3 then in Houston August 11-13.
Who's on third?
Over the last two seasons combined, new Astros’ third baseman Isaac Paredes has been as good offensively as Bregman. That includes Paredes pretty much stinking for two months in Chicago after being dealt from the Rays to the Cubs. Paredes, who turns 26 years old on Tuesday, was an AL All-Star last season. Bregman, who turns 31 March 30, was last an All-Star in 2019. The defensive drop-off from Bregman to Paredes is a fairly steep one.
There is no question that Bregman’s official departure weakens the Astros via a domino effect. Had Bregman wound up staying here, Paredes would have shifted to second base with Jose Altuve primarily in left field. Now, 600-plus plate appearances that Bregman would have taken project to be divided among Mauricio Dubon, Ben Gamel, Zach Dezenzo, and others. That projects as a substantial offensive downgrade. The lineup net result of the Astros’ offseason is negative. Christian Walker and Paredes joining the infield in lieu of Jon Singleton and Bregman is fine. Kyle Tucker out, hodge-podge in in the outfield, oh boy.
Alex Bregman is an unquestioned gamer, leader, and would seem to have the temperament to take well to the more intense baseball environment of Boston relative to that in Houston. Yankee fans should reeeeally love him now!
New beginnings
Considering baseball wasn’t invented until more than a century later, the poet Alexander Pope did not have baseball in mind when in 1732 he wrote “Hope springs eternal (in the human breast).” It works though. Other than the Chicago White Sox and Colorado Rockies, Major League teams have convened in Florida or Arizona thinking if things break right this could be their year! I’d probably put the Miami Marlins in with the ChiSox and Rockies. Many Astros’ fans are strongly disgruntled over the departures of Bregman and Kyle Tucker. This team still has “gruntlement” potential. The batting order appears Morganna-level (Google as necessary) top heavy, but one through five stacks well versus most other lineups. In the American League only the Mariners, Yankees, and maybe Royals have starting pitching rotations that should rate above the Astros’ rotation. Let the countdown to Opening Day begin!
Spring training is up and running. Join Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and me for the Stone Cold ‘Stros podcast which drops each Monday afternoon, with an additional episode now on Thursday. Click here to catch!
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