Carmelo Anthony (and James Harden) are focal points in a bad defense. Thearon W. Henderson/Getty Images
After a polarizing offseason, most experts expected the Houston Rockets to take a significant step back defensively this season. This analysis was swiftly met by backlash from fans of the team and even Rockets brass. However, after just three games into the regular season, it does indeed look like there may have been truth to the criticism.
The Rockets, simply put, look disastrous on defense.
According to NBA.com, Houston is giving up an exorbitant 114.2 points per 100 possessions - good for 24th in the league. The same level of communication and execution that led to a seventh ranked defense last year has simply fallen off the face of the planet.
What once was an efficient system of clean switching and rim protection has eroded before our very eyes.
While it’s not totally fair to pin the blame on individuals when the collective output is this bad, James Harden and Carmelo Anthony stick out as roots of the problem. You don’t have to look at the numbers to draw this conclusion, but when you do, it’s staggering how bad they’ve been.
Houston Rockets Defensive RTG:
With James Harden: 118.6
Without James Harden: 92.5
Houston Rockets Defensive RTG:
With Carmelo Anthony: 118.0
Without Carmelo Anthony: 102.2
It’s one thing if these were players that weren’t integral to what the Rockets want to do this year or barely play any minutes. However, James Harden and Carmelo Anthony combine for 65 minutes per game, with usage rates of 29.9% and 17.6% respectively. The Rockets heavily rely on them for offensive production, particularly Harden. As a result, they have to be on the floor even with their defensive warts.
However, if the Rockets want to have any chance at true title contention this year, both have to get their act together defensively and they have to do it fast.
Watching game tape only highlights how bad both of them have been, especially Harden. To Harden’s credit, he had turned things around these past couple years and become an average defender. This year, it seems he’s reverted to old habits of falling asleep on weak side help, back-cuts, and ball-watching.
Take a look at this video of Harden letting Tobias Harris cut to the basket for an easy layup or a similar play just a quarter later.
There are endless examples of Harden’s defensive lapses littered throughout the first three games of the season and it’s unfortunate, given the strides he’d made in that arena.
Anthony’s defensive issues come into form with reckless closeouts on shooters, a general lack of aggression, and the same issues with ball-watching Harden has.
As an example of this lack of force, here’s Anthony refusing to meet Elfrid Payton at the rim in transition, leading to the easy, uncontested layup.
Here’s are couple of plays of Anthony falling asleep on his man, one on Nikola Mirotic, leading to the easy two and one where Anthony half-heartedly defends Anthony Davis at the basket.
The bottom is line is both Harden and Anthony have been abysmal early on and the effort just doesn’t seem to be there. You can attribute the drop-off in defense to the losses of Trevor Ariza and Luc Mbah a Moute, but you would only be half right. James Ennis has done an adequate job of replacing Ariza as the Rockets are defending 10 points per 100 possessions better when he’s on the floor. Losing Mbah a Moute compounded with adding the negative defense of Carmelo Anthony and James Harden this season is really what’s hurting the Rockets.
Houston was able to get the very best out of negative defenders like Harden and Ryan Anderson last season and the fact that they haven’t been able to do that yet this year points to a possible institutional decline. Perhaps this is where losing Associate Head Coach Jeff Bzdelik just weeks before the season hurts. It could also be a general lack of interest after topping out at 65 wins last season and making it to the Western Conference Finals. It’s tough to quantify.
Whatever the case, the Rockets will need to turn it around fast if they want to be taken seriously. It’s still very early so this all may be presumptuous. However, the early returns aren’t encouraging and Houston can only fall so far behind if they want to obtain homecourt advantage throughout the playoffs like they did last year.
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After finishing up with the Guardians the Astros have a rather important series for early May with the Seattle Mariners heading to town for the weekend. While it’s still too early to be an absolute must-win series for the Astros, losing the series to drop seven or nine games off the division lead would make successfully defending their American League West title that much more unlikely.
Since their own stumble out of the gate to a 6-10 record the Mariners have been racking up series wins, including one this week over the Atlanta Braves. The M’s offense is largely Mmm Mmm Bad, but their pitching is sensational. In 18 games after a 4-8 start, the Mariners gave up five runs in a game once. In the other 17 games they only gave up four runs once. Over the 18 games their starting pitchers gave up 18 earned runs total with a 1.44 earned run average. That’s absurd. Coming into the season Seattle’s starting rotation was clearly better on paper than those of the Astros and Texas Rangers, and it has crystal clearly played out as such into the second month of the schedule.
While it’s natural to focus on and fret over one’s own team's woes when they are plentiful as they have been for the Astros, a reminder that not all grass is greener elsewhere. Alex Bregman has been awful so far. So has young Mariners’ superstar Julio Rodriguez (though not Breggy Bad). A meager four extra base hits over his first 30 games were all Julio produced down at the ballyard. That the Mariners are well ahead of the Astros with J-Rod significantly underperforming is good news for Seattle.
Caratini comes through!
So it turns out the Astros are allowed to have a Puerto Rican-born catcher who can hit a little bit. Victor Caratini’s pedigree is not that of a quality offensive player, but he has swung the bat well thus far in his limited playing time and provided the most exciting moment of the Astros’ season with his two-out two-run 10th inning game winning home run Tuesday night. I grant that one could certainly say “Hey! Ronel Blanco finishing off his no-hitter has been the most exciting moment.” I opt for the suddenness of Caratini’s blow turning near defeat into instant victory for a team that has been lousy overall to this point. Frittering away a game the Astros had led 8-3 would have been another blow. Instead, to the Victor belong the spoils.
Pudge Rodriguez is the greatest native Puerto Rican catcher, but he was no longer a good hitter when with the Astros for the majority of the 2009 season. Then there’s Martin Maldonado.
Maldonado’s hitting stats with the Astros look Mike Piazza-ian compared to what Jose Abreu was doing this season. Finally, mercifully for all, Abreu is off the roster as he accepts a stint at rookie-level ball in Florida to see if he can perform baseball-CPR on his swing and career. Until or unless he proves otherwise, Abreu is washed up and at some point the Astros will have to accept it and swallow whatever is left on his contract that runs through next season. For now Abreu makes over $120,000 per game to not be on the roster. At his level of performance, that’s a better deal than paying him that money to be on the roster.
Abreu’s seven hits in 71 at bats for an .099 batting average with a .269 OPS is a humiliating stat line. In 2018 George Springer went to sleep the night of June 13 batting .293 after going hitless in his last four at bats in a 13-5 Astros’ win over Oakland. At the time no one could have ever envisioned that Springer had started a deep, deep funk which would have him endure a nightmarish six for 78 stretch at the plate (.077 batting average). Springer then hit .293 the rest of the season.
Abreu’s exile opened the door for Joey Loperfido to begin his Major League career. Very cool for Loperfido to smack a two-run single in his first game. He also struck out twice. Loperfido will amass whiffs by the bushel, he had 37 strikeouts in 101 at bats at AAA Sugar Land. Still, if he can hit .225 with some walks mixed in (he drew 16 with the Space Cowboys) and deliver some of his obvious power (13 homers in 25 games for the ex-Skeeters) that’s an upgrade over Abreu/Jon Singleton, as well as over Jake Meyers and the awful showing Chas McCormick has posted so far. Frankly, it seems unwise that the Astros only had Loperfido play seven games at first base in the minors this year. If McCormick doesn’t pick it up soon and with Meyers displaying limited offensive upside, the next guy worth a call-up is outfielder Pedro Leon. In January 2021 the Astros gave Leon four million dollars to sign out of Cuba and called him a “rapid mover to the Major Leagues.” Well…
Over his first three minor league seasons Leon flashed tools but definitely underwhelmed. He has been substantially better so far this year. He turns 26 May 28. Just maybe the Astros offense could be the cause of fewer Ls with Loperfido at first and Leon in center field.
Catch our weekly Stone Cold ‘Stros podcast. Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and I discuss varied Astros topics. The first post for the week generally goes up Monday afternoon (second part released Tuesday) via YouTube: stone cold stros - YouTube with the complete audio available via Apple Podcast, Spotify, or wherever you get your podcasts.