Carmelo Anthony (and James Harden) are focal points in a bad defense. Thearon W. Henderson/Getty Images
After a polarizing offseason, most experts expected the Houston Rockets to take a significant step back defensively this season. This analysis was swiftly met by backlash from fans of the team and even Rockets brass. However, after just three games into the regular season, it does indeed look like there may have been truth to the criticism.
The Rockets, simply put, look disastrous on defense.
According to NBA.com, Houston is giving up an exorbitant 114.2 points per 100 possessions - good for 24th in the league. The same level of communication and execution that led to a seventh ranked defense last year has simply fallen off the face of the planet.
What once was an efficient system of clean switching and rim protection has eroded before our very eyes.
While it’s not totally fair to pin the blame on individuals when the collective output is this bad, James Harden and Carmelo Anthony stick out as roots of the problem. You don’t have to look at the numbers to draw this conclusion, but when you do, it’s staggering how bad they’ve been.
Houston Rockets Defensive RTG:
With James Harden: 118.6
Without James Harden: 92.5
Houston Rockets Defensive RTG:
With Carmelo Anthony: 118.0
Without Carmelo Anthony: 102.2
It’s one thing if these were players that weren’t integral to what the Rockets want to do this year or barely play any minutes. However, James Harden and Carmelo Anthony combine for 65 minutes per game, with usage rates of 29.9% and 17.6% respectively. The Rockets heavily rely on them for offensive production, particularly Harden. As a result, they have to be on the floor even with their defensive warts.
However, if the Rockets want to have any chance at true title contention this year, both have to get their act together defensively and they have to do it fast.
Watching game tape only highlights how bad both of them have been, especially Harden. To Harden’s credit, he had turned things around these past couple years and become an average defender. This year, it seems he’s reverted to old habits of falling asleep on weak side help, back-cuts, and ball-watching.
Take a look at this video of Harden letting Tobias Harris cut to the basket for an easy layup or a similar play just a quarter later.
There are endless examples of Harden’s defensive lapses littered throughout the first three games of the season and it’s unfortunate, given the strides he’d made in that arena.
Anthony’s defensive issues come into form with reckless closeouts on shooters, a general lack of aggression, and the same issues with ball-watching Harden has.
As an example of this lack of force, here’s Anthony refusing to meet Elfrid Payton at the rim in transition, leading to the easy, uncontested layup.
Here’s are couple of plays of Anthony falling asleep on his man, one on Nikola Mirotic, leading to the easy two and one where Anthony half-heartedly defends Anthony Davis at the basket.
The bottom is line is both Harden and Anthony have been abysmal early on and the effort just doesn’t seem to be there. You can attribute the drop-off in defense to the losses of Trevor Ariza and Luc Mbah a Moute, but you would only be half right. James Ennis has done an adequate job of replacing Ariza as the Rockets are defending 10 points per 100 possessions better when he’s on the floor. Losing Mbah a Moute compounded with adding the negative defense of Carmelo Anthony and James Harden this season is really what’s hurting the Rockets.
Houston was able to get the very best out of negative defenders like Harden and Ryan Anderson last season and the fact that they haven’t been able to do that yet this year points to a possible institutional decline. Perhaps this is where losing Associate Head Coach Jeff Bzdelik just weeks before the season hurts. It could also be a general lack of interest after topping out at 65 wins last season and making it to the Western Conference Finals. It’s tough to quantify.
Whatever the case, the Rockets will need to turn it around fast if they want to be taken seriously. It’s still very early so this all may be presumptuous. However, the early returns aren’t encouraging and Houston can only fall so far behind if they want to obtain homecourt advantage throughout the playoffs like they did last year.
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With the Astros now officially ten games under .500 for the season, manager Joe Espada is taking a lot of heat from the fanbase for the team's struggles.
While we don't agree with the sentiment, we even hear fans clamoring for the return of Dusty Baker and Martin Maldonado, thinking the Astros wouldn't be in this mess if they were still here.
Which is ridiculous. First of all, Maldonado has been awful for the White Sox, hitting .048 (even worse than Jose Abreu's .065). And for those of you that think his work with the pitching staff justifies his pathetic offense. Let me say this: Where was Maldy's game calling genius for Hunter Brown, Cristian Javier, and Framber Valdez last year? All of them regressed significantly.
And as far as Baker is concerned, we have no idea how much a difference he would make, we can only speculate. Baker would also be dealing with a pitching staff ravaged with injuries. And let's not forget, Baker was the guy that refused to move Jose Abreu down in the batting order, even though he would finish the regular season with the ninth-worst OPS in baseball.
The reality of the situation is managers can only do so much in baseball. Which leads us to something else that needs to be considered. Is Espada being handcuffed by the front office? Espada and GM Dana Brown both said recently that Jon Singleton was going to get more at-bats while they give Abreu time off to try to figure things out. Yet, there Abreu was in the lineup again in the opening game of the Cubs series.
It makes us wonder how much power does Espada truly have? The Astros have some other options at first base. Yainer Diaz may only have eight games played at the position, but how much worse could he be than Abreu defensively? Abreu already has four errors, and Diaz is obviously a way better hitter. Victor Caratini isn't considered a plus offensive player, but his .276 batting average makes him look like Babe Ruth compared to Abreu. Let him catch more often and play Diaz at first. Starting Diaz at first more often could also lengthen his career long-term.
Maybe that's too wild of a move. Okay, fine. How about playing Mauricio Dubon at first base? I understand he doesn't have much experience at that position, but what's the downside of trying him there? If he can play shortstop, he can play first base. He's driving in runs at a higher rate (11 RBIs) than everyone on the team outside of Kyle Tucker and Yordan Alvarez. And he's producing like that as part-time player right now.
The other criticism we see of Espada is his use of Jon Singleton to pinch hit late in games. Let's be real, though, who else does Espada have on the roster to go to? Batting Abreu late in games in which you're trailing should be considered malpractice. Espada can only use who he has to work with. This all really stems from the Astros poor farm system.
They don't have anyone else to turn to. The draft picks the club lost from the sign-stealing scandal are really hurting them right now. First and second rounders from 2020 and 2021 should be helping you in 2024 at the big league level.
Maybe they go to Astros prospect Joey Loperfido soon, but after a hot start he has only two hits in his last six games.
Finally, we have to talk about what seems like a committee making baseball decisions. Lost in a committee is accountability. Who gets the blame for making poor decisions?
As time continues to pass it looks like moving on from former GM James Click was a massive mistake. He's the guy that didn't sign Abreu, but did trade Myles Straw (recently DFA'd) for Yainer Diaz and Phil Maton. He also built an elite bullpen without breaking the bank, and helped the club win a World Series in 2022.
The reality of the situation is Dusty Baker and James Click are not walking back through that door. And all good runs come to an end at some point. Is this what we're witnessing?
Don't miss the video above as we hit on all the points discussed and much more!
Catch Stone Cold 'Stros (an Astros podcast) with Charlie Pallilo, Brandon Strange, and Josh Jordan. We drop two episodes every week on SportsMapHouston's YouTube channel. You can also listen on Apple Podcast, Spotifyor wherever you get your podcasts.