
Lebron James should move on. Gregory Shamus
Friday night the NBA Finals mercifully came to an end as the Golden State Warriors swept a woefully outmanned Cleveland Cavaliers team. It was a boring, predictable bow pinned on the end of an otherwise entertaining 2017-2018 season.
As the last of the dust settles, and the talking heads begin their postseason prognosticating, the seemingly perennial question of LeBron James’ free agent status once again looms. Unlike the past few seasons, however, his decision isn’t as simple. Cleveland is no longer a shoo-in to retain its homegrown superstar, and Houston (yes, Houston) has emerged as a potential landing spot for --at the very least -- one of the top three basketball players on the planet.
So as it stands, prevailing wisdom suggests that the top destinations would be Cleveland, Philadelphia, Houston, or the Lakers. I personally think the Lakers have zero shot at luring James with the current roster--even if they managed to secure another superstar--so I'm not going to entertain that theory. Cleveland is always a possibility, especially because he has so much leverage in the front office there. But assuming he just re-signs doesn't make for a compelling article, so we'll assume he leaves.
And he should.
What more does he have to give/prove to Cleveland? He brought his hometown a Finals championship against one of the greatest basketball teams ever assembled. That's a legendary narrative. Asking for more would be selfish. Unlike his move to Miami, this time James has earned walking papers.
So assuming James astutely leaves Cleveland that leaves two logical destinations; Houston and Philly.
So why Philadelphia? Philly was one of the most surprising teams of the season due largely in part to the unexpectedly immediate contributions from big man Joel Embiid and rookie point guard Ben Simmons. Pairing LeBron with the uber athletic, pass-first Simmons and an imposing big in Embiid the likes of which James has never played with would make the 76ers an instant contender. Embiid is on the books for $25 million, yet Simmons is still on his rookie deal for a mere $6 million so Philly doesn't have to concoct any salary cap magic. And wherever James goes, hungry veterans will follow at a discount, knowing that he is their last chance at a ring. The players are there, and the money works. It wouldn't be the most illogical move.
While it's an appealing situation worth investigating, there are reasons, however, that could and should lead James to view them as the second best option.
First is their youth. Rookies and young platers very rarely play large roles on LeBron's teams. Most of that has to do with the fact that they're still trying to catch up to the pace and skill level of the league. LeBron teams are usually filled in with veterans who understand their role on the team and let LeBron do LeBron things. Would he be willing to endure the growing pains of playing with such a young core?
Secondly, while Simmons and Embiid are fantastic on the court, their track records for being able to stay on the court leave something to be desired. James played all 82 regular season games this year and then played three finals game with an injured hand. Would he be able to carry the 76ers if both pieces were lost for any significant stretch of time? I believe the answer is yes, but would a team missing either of those pieces make it back to the finals? Boston is poised to become a powerhouse next season and proved how deep their bench could go with the right coaching. That alone could be reason enough for James to pack up and head west, and I haven't even touched on the uncertainty regarding the 76ers front office after they sent Twitter genius and team president Brian Colangelo packing.
So that leaves us with Houston. The team with the best regular season record in the NBA. The team with the likely regular season MVP. The team that pushed the Golden State Warriors to seven games despite late season injuries to key players.
Assuming all star point guard Chris Paul re-signs with the Rockets, Houston would be sporting two superstars to shoulder some of a load that no one on that Cleveland team wanted to touch with a ten foot pole. This current Rockets team is as close to his Miami team as he's going to find, if not better. Plug in James and the Rockets could seemingly be level with the Warriors in terms of talent.
Rockets owner Tillman Fertita has already gone on record saying he's willing to incur the luxury tax if it means winning a championship, and the addition of James for all intents and purposes would signal the green light for such a move. What that implies is that the Rockets would not only have three superstars, they'd also have a bench to spell them.
The only snag at the moment preventing this from being a no-brainer is the Rockets’ current salary cap situation. There are moves that would need to be made, one of which would be offloading Ryan Anderson's contract on another team. That same contract was the ultimate hang up that prevented last summer's Carmelo Anthony acquisition and looks to be just as big of a pain in General Manager Daryl Morey’s side this year as well. Morey has proven to be a genius, though, so I'm not betting against ability to make it work.
So as Rockets fans continue to lament over their Western Conference Finals defeat, they should appreciate the Warriors for sweeping the Cavaliers. They showed LeBron that the answer for finals glory may not be in Cleveland anymore. More so, they may have sent him packing to Houston. Time will tell.
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The phrase most associated with the late former Oakland-Los Angeles-Oakland Raiders’ owner Al Davis was “Just win baby.” One has to think Al would strongly approve of the Houston Astros. Going to the fifth inning Sunday against the Mariners the Astros were facing a 3-0 deficit and staring at the prospect of being swept out of Seattle and having their American League West division lead slashed to just two games. Now after roaring from behind with 11 unanswered runs to take the series finale in the Emerald City, and then sweeping three games from the Diamondbacks in Phoenix, the Astros stand six games up with 60 games to go. So, if the Astros play just .500 ball the rest of the way (which would have them finish with 90 victories), the Mariners have to play .600 ball to catch them. If somehow the Astros are to maintain their season long win pace to the finish line they’d close with 95 wins, and the race is already over unless someone thinks the M’s are poised to uncork a finishing kick of 41-19 or better. It’s quite a pleasing perch from which the Astros survey the standings. Coupled with the freefalling Detroit Tigers having dropped nine of their last ten games, the Astros amazingly start this homestand sporting the best record in the entire American League. On the homestand they follow four games against the team with the second-worst record in the American League (Athletics) with three versus the team with the second-worst record in the National League (Nationals). I know, I know. There is fear of the Astros playing down to the competition, but that is not the way to look at it. A bad Major League team can beat a good team in a series at any time. If it happens it happens, but it wouldn’t mean it happened only because the Astros didn’t take their opponent seriously. This isn’t the NBA.
Trade deadline looming
Of course, It hasn’t been all good news with Isaac Paredes badly injuring a hamstring Sunday. Paredes could be back in three weeks (doubtful), he could miss the rest of the season. GET WELL SOON JEREMY PENA! Lance McCullers’s latest Injured List stint could be considered addition by subtraction for the Astros’ starting rotation. Whether impacted by his blister issue, Lance was lousy in four of his last five starts. So, one week from the trade deadline, if general manager Dana Brown has the ammo to get one deal done, where does he make the upgrade? The left-handed hitter everyone knows the Astros can use regardless of Yordan Alvarez’s status is a natural priority. With the Astros’ weak farm system it would seem difficult for Brown to put forth the winning offer for the top bats that could be in play. That probably rings even truer now, since if he wasn’t already untouchable, Brice Matthews may have cemented untouchable status by darn near winning the first two games of the Diamondbacks series by himself. Matthews is going to struggle mightily to hit for a good average if he can’t make notable improvement in the contact department, but the power is obvious, as is the athleticism in the field. The 23-year-old Matthews and 22-year-old Cam Smith (though presently mired in a three for 36 slump) are the clear (and right now only) two young shining beacons for the lineup’s future.
You can't have enough pitching
While Brandon Walter has been a revelation, a starting pitcher would make sense unless the decision is to hope Spencer Arrighetti and/or Cristian Javier can contribute meaningfully upon return to the big leagues, likely sometime next month. Going after a reliever or two may make more sense in terms of availability and transaction cost. Overall the Astros’ bullpen has been excellent, but Bryan Abreu is the only trustworthy right-handed option for Joe Espada. Back to Walter. Barely two months ago no way Walter himself would have believed he’d be where he is now. Nine starts since being summoned basically out of desperation, Walter has a 3.35 earned run average, and a stunning 13 to one strikeout-to-walk ratio with his 52 strikeouts against a measly four walks allowed in 53 2/3 innings. Walter has pitched fabulously in seven of his nine starts. He only has two wins, but that’s because in five of the six Walter starts the Astros didn’t win the game they failed to score more than two runs. Walter turns 29 years old in September. His only prior big league experience was 23 innings in relief with a 6.26 ERA for the Red Sox two years ago. The Bosox released him last August, the Astros signed him basically as minor league depth. Look at him (and the Astros) now.
For Astro-centric conversation, join Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and me for the Stone Cold ‘Stros podcast which drops each Monday afternoon, with an additional episode now on Thursday. Click here to catch!
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