Photo by Bob Levey/Getty Images
Viewed as a snapshot of the last couple of weeks the Astros are horrible. Widen the view to the season to date and they're still the fourth best team in Major League Baseball and on pace to win 98 games. But they are staggering. It's now nine losses in the last 11 games. In four of them the pitching staff has given up at least 10 runs. The Pirates beating the snot out of the Astros 14-2 and 10-0 within 24 hours means the Astros start the weekend with their American League West lead over the surprising Texas Rangers down to four and a half games. That's the Astros' slimmest margin since they went to sleep the night of May 9.
The Astros can make no moves and quite likely win the division, but in pursuit of some homefield advantage in the postseason and then putting out the best team they can in the playoffs, it's increasingly clear that General Manager Jeff Luhnow is asleep at the wheel if he's not exploring trading for a starting pitcher. I would bet a good chunk of money that Luhnow is not asleep at the wheel. None of the Astros pitching prospects have given good reason to think a good answer for 2019 lies within.
Star struck
That George Springer is a deserving All Star Game starter despite missing a month tells you the kind of season he's having, and the kind of season American League outfielders as a group are not having. Michael Brantley is worthy too. Mike Trout, duh.
Alex Bregman gets voted in to start for the first time. He's having a season that overall is right in line with last year's monster breakout campaign. But I bet Bregman is ticked that his batting average is only .264. He's popping the ball up a lot this season, and also popping the ball out of the park with much greater frequency (the juiced balls help, but everyone else gets to swing at them too). Bregman is on pace for 43 home runs. As Astros only Jeff Bagwell (47). Lance Berkman (45) and Richard Hidalgo (44) have topped 43 in a season.
Making moves
The NBA free agency frenzy gets underway at 5:00 Central Time Sunday afternoon. The Rockets can only be bit players in the direct free agent market, but as usual General Manager Daryl Morey is thinking bigger. It is amusing that while Morey is saying the Rockets should be talked about as the favorites in the Western Conference, he's trying to break apart the team. With designs on making it better, but still trying to break it up. There was no trade market for Chris Paul, so relief from the 3 years 124 million dollars left on Paul's deal was not happening. Besides, while Paul's contract is absurd he is still a legit starting point guard. Who would the Rockets have replaced him with anyway?
So, the foremost object of Daryl's desires is Tomball native and current 76er Jimmy Butler. If Butler says he wants to be a Rocket for four seasons and approximately 140 million dollars (the Sixers can offer up to five years about 190 mil), the Sixers probably would be open to signing and trading him. To make it work under the salary cap the Rockets would have to unload Eric Gordon and Clint Capela. Or: Gordon, P.J. Tucker, and salary cap filler like Nene and Gary Clark.
Gordon would make sense for the Sixers (so would Tucker). Capela would be a 16 million dollar backup to the vastly superior Joel Embiid. Meaning Capela would have to rerouted elsewhere.
Would either trade make the Rockets better? No, at least not initially. Butler can be a pouter if he doesn't see the ball as much as he wants. How would standing around while James Harden dominates work out? Paul has the same issue. Or would Harden accept a downsizing of his role which made him MVP and MVP runner-up the past two seasons? Let's presume they could get past that. The Rockets other two starters would be…? Without Capela, who protects the rim and rebounds? Hope they're not thinking fallen over the hill DeAndre Jordan. JaVale McGee? And what about the bench, which stunk most of last season.
There are role players such as Seth Curry, Danny Green, and Al-Farouq Aminu to be had in free agency, but the Rockets can be outbid for many of them, and it's not as if all free agents dream of playing for the Rockets. Morey's offseason signings last summer stunk. It's critical that he's much better this year.
Buzzer Beaters
:1. Left knee discomfort for Yordan Alvarez. Oy. Hope it's nothing more. 2. If Kawhi Leonard picks the Clippers it's not insane to count seven Western Conference teams that could wind up better than the Rockets. 3. Best Beatles' Songs: Bronze-Yesterday Silver-Hey Jude Gold-Let It Be
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The holiday season isn’t off to all good tidings and cheer for the Texans. The fan base is certainly increasingly “Bah Humbug!” in sentiment after an awful loss to a crummy Tennessee Titans team that was 2-8. Since their lofty 5-1 start the Texans have dropped four of six games, and it doesn’t get much worse than falling at home to one of the worst teams in the league. If the Texans aren’t too stuffed with humble pie to move around Sunday, they should (and better) rebound against the 2-9 Jaguars in Jacksonville. If the Texans pratfall again, blowing the AFC South becomes very possible if the Indianapolis Colts win at New England Sunday.
Astros’ fans meanwhile deal with their own angst awaiting Alex Bregman deciding where he will sign. If Bregman goes elsewhere, even if it’s because the Astros choose not to match or come close enough to someone else’s crazy offer, that the Astros’ biggest signing of the offseason is with a new stadium naming rights partner won’t exactly leave the natives un-restless.
Red-hot Rockets
So, this holiday weekend, the feel-good Houston pro sports team of the moment is the Rockets. Familiar with them? National Basketball Association? Have you noticed they are off to a stellar 14-6 start? That’s second best in the Western Conference. That’s with just under one-quarter of the regular season played, so no anointing of imminent glory here, but it looks like a legitimately quality squad. And that's with high lottery draft pick Reed Sheppard contributing very little thus far. Sheppard was drafted primarily for his pure shooting ability. Overall, the Rockets’ three-point shooting is weak.
Jalen Green continues to be more tease than big-time player, mixing in too many clunkers alongside his sometimes breathtaking explosions. Green is still young, not turning 23 years old until February, but he has made no jump to suggest he’s knocking on the door of upper echelon shooting guard status. Donovan Mitchell, Devin Booker, and Anthony Edwards were all substantially better players at Green’s age than Green is now.
Second season head coach Ime Udoka knows this, as evidenced in his more than once in a blue moon benching of Green in crunch time of games. The Rockets have a strong head coach, exponentially better than was the in over his head Stephen Silas. In fairness, Udoka had a year of head coaching experience with a quality Celtics team (that won the Eastern Conference championship) before coming here, while Silas was a novice head coach who inherited a mess. But Udoka clearly commands the room and almost forces improvement in ways Silas demonstrated zippo. Again, it’s only a slice of the season but this squad is showing the best Rockets’ defensive chops in more than 15 years, going back to Rick Adelman’s time on the bench (Adelman was underrated as a defensive coach because of his offensive acumen).
Having better talent helps, and watching second year man six-foot-seven inch Amen Thompson and third year guy six-foot-eight Tari Eason wreak havoc on D can be something to behold. Both are the modern multi-positional, long-limbed, uber-athletic type winning teams need. If Thompson can develop even a decent jump shot he has All-Star games in his future. Big if. Shooting can be coached and developed some, but to an extent it’s an innate skill. Alperen Sengun could have an All-Star game in his very near future, as in perhaps this season. Nikola Jokic and Victor Wembanyama are the only centers in the Western Conference you’d rather have.
What the Rockets lack is the guy who can be the best player on a first tier title contender. He’s probably not on the roster. When to aggressively seek that guy versus letting a nice stew simmer is a challenge. While the NBA salary cap is going to balloon ten percent per season for a while (it’s 140.6 million dollars this season with the luxury tax kicking in at 170.8 mil) Tilman Fertitta’s payroll is going to mushroom if the objective is to keep the whole young core together. Green and Sengun’s contract extensions kick in next season at over 33 million dollars for each. Eason and Jabari Smith are extension-eligible after this season. Without notable growth in his game, trading Green pretty clearly will be explored (again?) at some point. Fred VanVleet is a solid veteran presence at point guard, but a middle of the pack point who in no logical world has the Rockets picking up his almost 45 million dollars option for next season. If they want VanVleet back, maybe it’s something like three years 70 million to greatly lower his salary but increase his overall guaranteed take.
The Western Conference is loaded, but the Rockets’ youth and depth makes them well suited for the 82-game regular season. Before entering a franchise coma when James Harden basically quit going into the 2020-21 season, the Rockets had missed the playoffs only three times in 36 years. They have now missed the last four seasons. That streak should end this season. Only once in franchise history have the Rockets missed the playoffs five years in a row, and the first two of those years they were the San Diego Rockets.
For Texans’ conversation, catch Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and me on our Texans On Tap podcasts. Thursdays feature a preview of the upcoming game, and then we go live (then available on demand) after the final gun of the game: Texans on Tap - YouTube
The Astros are always in season for discussion. Our Stone Cold ‘Stros podcasts drop Mondays: Click here to watch!