Every-Thing Sports
Jeff Luhnow is frustratingly smart and frugal
Jul 30, 2019, 7:17 am
Composite photo by Brandon Strange
Astros general manager Jeff Luhnow has done a tremendous job since being hired on December 8, 2011. That was a month and a few days after he helped the St. Louis Cardinals winning their eleventh title. He's used his analytic/Moneyball style of team building to build the Astros organization into a perennial contender. The crowning achievement was the World Series title in 2017. Not too bad for a guy who was hired into the Cardinals organization in 2003 without any prior experience in baseball besides playing in high school. He had previously worked for McKinsey & Company, a global strategy and management company.
He's made a career of analyzing data, making sense of it, and using what he's found through analyzing said data to give an advantage to whoever he's working for. This is a valuable skillset, whether in the business world, or in MLB. Luhnow has proven he can provide an extremely high level of efficiency and production with his work.It's the same qualities that make Luhnow a pain in the ass when it comes to making trades involving high ranking prospects.
He won't quit Kyle Tucker
As presently constructed, this team needs another arm in both the starting rotation, as well as in the bullpen. The Mets wanted a package centered around Tucker, the tall, lanky left-hand hitting outfield prospect for perhaps their best pitcher Noah Syndergaard. When I heard Luhnow was unwilling to send Tucker, I was upset. Tucker came up last season and couldn't cut it. Yordan Alvarez has more than proven himself in the opportunities that he's been given this season. So much so that manager AJ Hinch finds ways to get him into games, despite Alvarez being a defensive liability. If Tucker was deserving of the nickname "Ted" (as in Ted Williams because of his supposed sweet lefty swing), he'd be up taking the at-bats Alvarez currently occupies. Alas, Tucker is still in the minors while Alvarez is putting up rookie of the year numbers.
Ditto for Forrest Whitley
The same can be said for Forrest Whitley. Whitley is the organization's best pitching prospect. He was hurt this year and not able to be called up when Alvarez was called up. He was originally thought to be called up in June so the team would hold off another year of arbitration. However, his injury set back those plans. Not to mention he hasn't been as sharp as everyone would have liked for him to be. That being said, he could've been flipped into a big leaguer that can help this team now instead of hoping he develops into a top of the rotation guy later.
Hoarding prospects has its advantages
Remember when Alex Bregman was a hot prospect? Remember when it was thrown out there that the Astros should trade him for Chris Sale? Remember when last season Bregman finished top three in the AL MVP race and earned a five-year $100 million dollar extension? Sometimes Luhnow's stubbornness pays off. He's shown that he's made the right calls so far for this organization. Winning that World Series title gave him some equity. So did restocking the minor league system and building a stacked big league roster. Maybe this guy knows what he's doing after all?
Bottom line: Luhnow knows what he's doing. Whether we believe in his methods or not, he's rebuilt this franchise from the ground up. However, it is still quite frustrating to see guys out there that can help this team win another title and Luhnow not going after them for fear of having to part with prospects he holds in high regard. Where does the chase for another title outweigh the potential future of the franchise? In my opinion, the title chase now outweighs the future. Winning another title can seal your legacy, as well as the legacies of everyone involved. Luhnow needs to realize that the guys he's trading away aren't future Hall of Famers. They'll probably be really good, but that's not enough to turn down proven big league talent that can help you now. I truly hope this article is rendered inconsequential by Wednesday at 3PM. That's the hard trade deadline. That's when we'll know if Luhnow thinks this team is ready for a World Series run as constructed, or he's made a move to reinforce what he's already built. As hard as it is for me to say it, in Luhnow I trust.
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Now that spring training is officially underway, we're able to make some observations about how the Astros 2025 roster is taking shape.
Houston's starting rotation is basically set, but we got to see Hayden Wesneski make his first start in an Astro uniform. Wesneski pitched two innings against the Mets on Tuesday, allowing one run with three strikeouts.
He's working on a curveball that's a new pitch for his repertoire, and he saw some success with it. Hopefully, adding this pitch will help keep batters off balance (especially left-handed hitters) and help elevate his game. Which is nothing new for the Astros, who have a history of helping pitchers get to the next level.
Forrest Whitley also looked good, pitching a clean inning and finishing off his final hitter with a 97 mph fastball. Whitley finally realizing his potential in the big leagues could be a huge deal for the Astros, as they're looking to lighten the workload for Bryan Abreu and Josh Hader this season.
Hader in particular could benefit from this adjustment, as he was much worse when pitching in non-save situations last season. An easy fix with Hader could be trying to limit his workload to mostly save situations. That way, you get the most out of him and achieve the goal of him pitching less innings this year.
The Houston Chronicle's Matt Kawahara wrote about Hader's struggles pitching when games were tied or Houston was trailing.
“Hader converted 34 of 38 save chances but faced more batters in non-save situations (142) than in save situations (136), a sharp pivot from his previous few seasons. Opponents slugged .271 against him in save situations and .411 in non-save situations, while his ERA was more than two runs higher (4.98) in the latter.”
And while it's easy to say “suck it up, you're getting paid a fortune to pitch,” if he's not having success in those situations, and you're looking to back off his workload, this seems like an obvious way to pivot. He's under contract for another four seasons, so the Astros are right to want to be careful with him.
Astros plate discipline
Manager Joe Espada has made it very clear that he would like his offense to see more pitches this season. And we're seeing a stark difference in the approaches from the newly acquired players (Isaac Paredes, Christian Walker) and Houston's returning hitters.
Keep in mind, Paredes was first in pitches per plate appearance last season, and Walker was 10th.
So it shouldn't come as a surprise that Paredes and Walker both worked a full count in their first at-bats on Tuesday, while Mauricio Dubon, Yainer Diaz, and Chas McCormick swung at every pitch in their first at-bats.
Hopefully the new blood in the clubhouse will rub off on the rest of the Astros lineup, which is full of free swingers, especially with Alex Bregman now playing for Boston.
Which is why we're so excited about Cam Smith's early results. While we're super pumped about his two home runs on Tuesday, we're equally impressed that he walked in his first two at-bats this spring. If anyone would naturally be jumping out of their shoes to make a strong first impression, you would think it's the guy that was traded for Kyle Tucker. But Smith was patient, and he was rewarded for it.
What is Dana Brown saying privately?
Just last offseason, Brown was talking about extending Tucker and Bregman while also signing Hader to a shocking 5-year, $95 million deal. Plus, the team signed Jose Altuve to a whopping $150 million extension. Fast-forward one year and Tucker has been traded, Bregman left in free agency, and Ryan Pressly was dealt in a salary dump. Safe to say, his vision for the ball club has changed drastically in one season. Welcome to baseball economics under Jim Crane!
We're just scratching the surface on everything covered in the video above. Be sure to hit play to watch the full conversation!
The countdown to Opening Day is on. Join Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and Charlie Pallilo for the Stone Cold ‘Stros podcast which drops each Monday afternoon, with an additional episode now on Thursday. Click here to catch!
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