Every-Thing Sports
Jermaine Every: The Rockets could actually do this
Mar 13, 2018, 6:02 am
James Harden actually has help this season. Rockets.com
The Houston Rockets are currently two games in front of the Golden State Warriors for the number one seed in the Western Conference. They also hold the tiebreaker should the two teams end up with the same record. But do people really believe they can win an NBA title?
To do so, they’d have to get passed the Warriors. The Warriors have one of the most loaded rosters in NBA history. They won an NBA record 73 games before they added Kevin Durant. After Durant joined their team, they won another title. The Rockets, on the other hand, lost in the Western Conference Finals the year the Warriors won 73 games and failed miserably last year in the second round of the playoffs versus the San Antonio Spurs.
One of the things that makes this year different is the Rockets’ ability to play defense and have other guys score When James Harden or Chris Paul can’t get it going. No longer is Trevor Ariza the sole defensive stalwart on the team. Luc Mbah A Moute and P.J. Tucker provide the team with other “3 and D” guys, besides Ariza, who can defend multiple positions and hit the three. Eric Gordon has stepped up to the plate as the Vinnie “Microwave” Johnson of this team. He can light it up off the bench at any given moment and has improved his defense. Clint Capela has made leaps and bounds as not only a defender, but also as a pick and roll threat.
Another difference in this year versus previous years is the fact that the Spurs, notorious thorn in the Rockets’ side, are more vulnerable this year. Their best player, Kwahi Leonard, has been hurt most of the year. Their second best player, Lamarcus Aldridge, recently went down with an injury and hasn’t played well when he and Leonard are sharing the floor. They are still a dangerous team if both guys are healthy, but that hasn’t come to fruition this season.
Perhaps the best reason for the Rockets’ increased chances of a title run this season, is the fact that the guys surrounding Harden are leaders. Paul and Tucker are widely recognized as more vocal vets in the huddle and/or locker room. Ariza is a no-nonsense guy, but I think he wasn’t able to reign in the locker room as quickly as he’d like. By Harden being surrounded by so many guys that take the game so serious, it seems as if it’s rubbing off on him this season. Having another playmaker/ball handler like Paul eases the tension and load on Harden’s shoulders.
I personally believe this version of the Rockets is more well-equipped to make a run at a title than previous versions of this team with Harden at the helm. There are other teams that factor into the West being won than the Warriors. The Minnesota Timberwolves are a young and upcoming team that can be taken serious as a possible threat. Harden is in such a zone, it would be hard to envision him faltering in the playoffs this season. Paul hasn’t achieved the successes that other guys have, but it’s debatable as to why. Without a clear cut third superstar, Capela isn’t there yet, this team lacks the ammunition previous teams’ have had. Now he has guys he can trust to make plays and distribute. This Rockets team deserves our undivided attention and support. It’s high time we come together as a city and support them the way they’re playing their butts off.
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So where does one turn now in Houston for mediocre, overpriced salsa? I kid, I kid. While wondering if Breggy Baked Beans are on the horizon. Congrats to Alex Bregman and agent Scott Boras for landing an on its face outlandish three-year 120-million dollar contract with the Boston Red Sox. With deferred money part of the deal the contract will be valuated in the neighborhood of “only” three years 90 million. Would Bregman have taken that from the Astros if offered? The Astros’ six-year 156-million dollar proposal was 26 mil per season. Bregman has the right to opt out after each of the first two seasons of his BoSox deal. If his decline (while still a very good player) of the last two seasons continues, or even if he holds steady, there is near zero chance of Bregman opting out unless he hates life in New England. At the end of the three years, will Bregman be able to land a three-year 66 million-dollar deal when he’s about to turn 34 years old? That plus the 90 mil with deferrals accounted for in his new deal would total 156 million. Massachusetts taxes personal income of just over a million dollars and upward at a nine percent rate. Playing half his games in the Bay State, Bregman will pay Massachusetts tax on half his salary.
Reminders...
Bregman obviously had an excellent Astros’ career, among non-pitchers he is top 10 all-time, but the excellence was frontloaded. Over Bregman’s first three big seasons he compiled a .289 batting average and .924 OPS. Elite numbers. Over the five seasons since: .261 and .795. Good, nothing legendary. After his monster MVP runner-up 2019 season (stats aided by the juiced balls of that season) Bregman was on a strong early Hall of Fame track. Now not so much, without some offensive resurgence. Fenway Park should suit Bregman well. He’ll bang singles and doubles off of the Green Monster, though the much higher than Crawford Boxes wall will not goose his home run numbers. In his time with the Astros Bregman mashed at Fenway with a .375 batting average and 1.240 OPS. That’s in a statistically not very significant 98 regular season plate appearances.
It is myth that Bregman in the postseason was some relentless hitting machine. He posted phenomenal numbers over seven Division Series batting .333 with an OPS over 1.000. Over 68 American League Championship Series and World Series games: batting average .196, OPS sub-.700.
For his career, Bregman’s worst month of performance by far has been April (plus any days in March, .737 OPS). In 2024 Bregman was baseball garbage into mid-May. Should a typical slow start happen again, we’ll see what the Fenway faithful patience level is. By far, Bregman’s best batting month has been August (.992 OPS). As it works out, both Astros-Red Sox series are in August this year. First in Boston August 1-3 then in Houston August 11-13.
Who's on third?
Over the last two seasons combined, new Astros’ third baseman Isaac Paredes has been as good offensively as Bregman. That includes Paredes pretty much stinking for two months in Chicago after being dealt from the Rays to the Cubs. Paredes, who turns 26 years old on Tuesday, was an AL All-Star last season. Bregman, who turns 31 March 30, was last an All-Star in 2019. The defensive drop-off from Bregman to Paredes is a fairly steep one.
There is no question that Bregman’s official departure weakens the Astros via a domino effect. Had Bregman wound up staying here, Paredes would have shifted to second base with Jose Altuve primarily in left field. Now, 600-plus plate appearances that Bregman would have taken project to be divided among Mauricio Dubon, Ben Gamel, Zach Dezenzo, and others. That projects as a substantial offensive downgrade. The lineup net result of the Astros’ offseason is negative. Christian Walker and Paredes joining the infield in lieu of Jon Singleton and Bregman is fine. Kyle Tucker out, hodge-podge in in the outfield, oh boy.
Alex Bregman is an unquestioned gamer, leader, and would seem to have the temperament to take well to the more intense baseball environment of Boston relative to that in Houston. Yankee fans should reeeeally love him now!
New beginnings
Considering baseball wasn’t invented until more than a century later, the poet Alexander Pope did not have baseball in mind when in 1732 he wrote “Hope springs eternal (in the human breast).” It works though. Other than the Chicago White Sox and Colorado Rockies, Major League teams have convened in Florida or Arizona thinking if things break right this could be their year! I’d probably put the Miami Marlins in with the ChiSox and Rockies. Many Astros’ fans are strongly disgruntled over the departures of Bregman and Kyle Tucker. This team still has “gruntlement” potential. The batting order appears Morganna-level (Google as necessary) top heavy, but one through five stacks well versus most other lineups. In the American League only the Mariners, Yankees, and maybe Royals have starting pitching rotations that should rate above the Astros’ rotation. Let the countdown to Opening Day begin!
Spring training is up and running. Join Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and me for the Stone Cold ‘Stros podcast which drops each Monday afternoon, with an additional episode now on Thursday. Click here to catch!
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