GAMBLING GUIDE

Jerry Bo: Bookie Busters mid-week plays

Jerry Bo: Bookie Busters mid-week plays
The Dynamo are part of the mid-week plays. Courtesy of Wilf Thorne/Houston Dynamo

I always stress the importance of bankroll management and remind you thats it's a long process to become profitable in sports betting. The figure of 52.4% is one you'll hear referenced when discussing gambling. That's the winning percentage needed to break even when betting lines that are -110 (11/10).

The other day I ran across some numbers that put a perspective on how tough it truly is to win long term. Not only winning, but claiming to be a full-time sports bettor is something less than 3% of gamblers can pull off.

50 game Sample Size  betting -110 and winning 54% (27/50)

A $110 to win $100 bettor  profits $170
A $550 to win $500 bettor profits $850
A  $1100 to win $1000 bettor profits $1700

As you can see the small sample size shows you the meager amount of profit you make over the 50 game sample. If you can sustain this winning rate over time, you’ll  see your bankroll increase. But time is critical, so always remember there are more games and spots to get in on. Winning won't be accomplished overnight.

After a layoff in Bookie Buster plays, we return with a few bets to get the bankroll fatter in time for football season.

Plays

Wednesday 7/25/18

Vorskla Poltava at Dynamo Kiev   Ukraine Premier League
Kiev Team Total Over 2      3U

New York Red Bull at DC United - MLS
Both teams to score    MAX
Over 3        3U


Philadelphia Union at Houston Dynamo MLS
Houston Dynamo  ML 3U

Tolima at Atletico Nacional   Colombia Soccer
Atletico Nacional ML    2U

Thursday 2 MAX PLAYS
Pending.…

For any questions or comments reach me @JerryBoKnowz on Twitter

 

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Joey Loperfido looks like the real deal! Photo by Logan Riely/Getty Images.

After a two-game sweep of the Rockies in Mexico City, a heart-thumping, extra-inning win Tuesday night over the Guardians in Minute Maid Park, the surprising demotion of first baseman Jose Abreu to the bottom rung of the minor leagues and the call-up of fan favorite rookie slugger Joey Loperfido … suddenly the Astros season seems turned around.

Even if their record still is 10-19 and they remain dead last in the American League West.

Ah, but only six games behind the first-place Seattle Mariners. That’s just a hot streak away.

The Astros are in it … and right now aren’t you thinking to win it?

One thing is for sure. There is no doubt who is running the Astros ship and is the voice in owner Jim Crane’s ear. It’s Dana Brown, the general manager.

Since the last pitch of the Astros disappointing 2023 season when they “only” made it to Game 7 of the ALCS, Brown has made the 2024 Astros team in his mind’s image.

Gone is last year’s manager Dusty Baker with whom Brown fussed and fought with over Baker’s insistence on playing weak-hitting Martin Maldonado over rookie Yanier Diaz.

Baker resigned (thank you for saving us the trouble) and was out the door shortly after the season ended.

Gone, too, is Maldonado. The Astros never made a serious attempt to keep him in Houston.

Now Abreu is dispatched, too. After an April of historic batting futility, Abreu, a 37-year-old veteran, consented to go back to the minors to find his batting stroke. He leaves the Astros, for public consumption temporarily, hitting .099 with no home runs and 3 RBI in 71 at bats.

The Astros signed Abreu to a $58.5 million, three-year contract before last season – before Brown arrived in Houston. Crane offered the megabuck contract at the urging of then-de facto general manager Jeff Bagwell. At this time last year, it was an open question, who is the real Crane-whisperer, newly hired Brown or Astros legend Bagwell?

Next question?

If Baker had been retained and Brown held sidelined in key decisions, it’s likely that Maldonado would be in the Astros lineup and Diaz again the catcher-in-waiting. With fans still frustrated up to here.

Maldonado eventually signed with the Chicago White Sox where he is batting an even .100 and has Southside fans wringing their hands over his offensive impotence. Defensively, he has thrown out only two of 20 base stealers for a 10-percent success rate.

Meanwhile, Diaz is batting a solid .287 with three homers and 13 RBI. He is one of MLB’s elite hitting catchers. He’s also thrown out six of 23 base stealers for a 26-percent success rate.

Maldonado did have value when he played for the Astros, though. He was a leader in the clubhouse. He led team meetings when times were tough. Pitchers had confidence in him. Fans liked him, at least on a personal level.

Abreu never made that connection during his time in Houston. Despite Brown’s repeated urging to read the back of Abreu’s baseball card, and his kind and confident words announcing Abreu’s departure for West Palm Beach, do you expect to ever see him in an Astros uniform again? Abreu still will be owed $19.5 million next season, so there is that.

When Astros fans woke up Wednesday morning, they had visions of Alex Bregman and Jon Singleton smacking three-run homers, of Jose Altuve and Jeremy Pena’s continued hot hitting, of rookie Loperfido driving in two go-ahead runs and reserve catcher Victor Caratini sending a big crowd home happy with a dramatic two-out, walk-off blast over the right field fence.

Hope is a good thing, and it’s back.

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