GAMBLING GUIDE

Jerry Bo: Bookie Busters mid-week plays

The Dynamo are part of the mid-week plays. Courtesy of Wilf Thorne/Houston Dynamo

I always stress the importance of bankroll management and remind you thats it's a long process to become profitable in sports betting. The figure of 52.4% is one you'll hear referenced when discussing gambling. That's the winning percentage needed to break even when betting lines that are -110 (11/10).

The other day I ran across some numbers that put a perspective on how tough it truly is to win long term. Not only winning, but claiming to be a full-time sports bettor is something less than 3% of gamblers can pull off.

50 game Sample Size  betting -110 and winning 54% (27/50)

A $110 to win $100 bettor  profits $170
A $550 to win $500 bettor profits $850
A  $1100 to win $1000 bettor profits $1700

As you can see the small sample size shows you the meager amount of profit you make over the 50 game sample. If you can sustain this winning rate over time, you’ll  see your bankroll increase. But time is critical, so always remember there are more games and spots to get in on. Winning won't be accomplished overnight.

After a layoff in Bookie Buster plays, we return with a few bets to get the bankroll fatter in time for football season.

Plays

Wednesday 7/25/18

Vorskla Poltava at Dynamo Kiev   Ukraine Premier League
Kiev Team Total Over 2      3U

New York Red Bull at DC United - MLS
Both teams to score    MAX
Over 3        3U


Philadelphia Union at Houston Dynamo MLS
Houston Dynamo  ML 3U

Tolima at Atletico Nacional   Colombia Soccer
Atletico Nacional ML    2U

Thursday 2 MAX PLAYS
Pending.…

For any questions or comments reach me @JerryBoKnowz on Twitter

 

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Keep an eye on Tank Dell this Sunday. Photo by Alex Bierens de Haan/Getty Images.

I remember thinking how in the world can these little frail guys survive at the NFL level? I mean, I saw Joe Theismann and Ed McCaffrey's legs snap. Drew Bledsoe got his chest caved in. Seeing 300-plus pound men cry when injured is humbling. So when a guy like Tank Dell comes along, I'm always a bit apprehensive. Especially when they come with a ton of hype.

For every eight to ten big strong players that get hurt, there's one or two little fellas that have relatively healthy careers. The comp that came to mind when looking at Tank was DeSean Jackson. Listed at 5'10 and weighing a heavy 175 pounds, Jackson was arguably the best “small guy” in NFL history. Dell being about two inches shorter and about ten pounds lighter, while also playing a similar role, is in line to be a similarly electrifying type of player. I put my assessment on the line and doubled down with my predictions on what his, and others' season totals will look like last week:

Tank Dell: 68 catches, 1,105 yards and 6 touchdowns- Dell will be a really good slot, but has some outside skills. Namely, his speed. He's more slippery than if Mick had greased that chicken before Rocky tried catching it. I could see his production going up as the season gets longer because Stroud will begin to look for him more and more as they build chemistry. Yes, I know I only have him with six scores. Keep in mind this is a run first offense. At least that's what we can deduce from looking at where it came from in San Francisco.

In his debut game last week vs the Ravens, he notched three catches for 34 yards on four targets. He was tied for third on the team in targets with Noah Brown and Mike Boone. While Robert Woods and Nico Collins were one and two in targets last week, I think Dell will ascend that list starting this week. Word came down that Noah Brown is headed to IR, meaning he'll miss at least the next four weeks. The chemistry he and fellow rookie C.J. Stroud have developed is palpable. From working out together, to attending UH games together, these two seem to have a nice bond already.

Woods is a solid vet two years removed from an ACL injury. Collins was a third rounder with size who hasn't done a whole lot. Dell is easily the most exciting option at receiver this team has. John Metchie III was expected to be the next guy up. Unfortunately, cancer had him take a backseat, until now. Metchie is back at practice this week, so a debut is imminent. He could potentially challenge for more playing time, but it may take him some time to get used to things and get going again.

As far as my statistical prediction for his season, he only needs to average four catches for 67 yards per game, and get a touchdown every two to three games for the remainder of the season. Given Brown being out the next few games, Metchie not quite being up to speed, Woods being an older player on a short-term deal, and Collins not really being what everyone thought he could be, it leaves things wide open for Dell to step up.

Playmakers come in all shapes and sizes. Levon Kirkland was a 300-pound middle linebacker in a 3-4. Doug Flutie led teams to playoff wins as a 5'9 quarterback. In football, size matters. The bigger, stronger guys normally win out. When it comes to receiving and returns, you want speed, quickness, and agility. Dell has that in spades. Add his competitive nature and chemistry with his quarterback and you have a recipe for a star in the making. I know I'm not the only one hoping the Texans continue Tank-ing.

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