GAMBLING GUIDE

Jerry Bo: Bookie Busters mid-week plays

Jerry Bo: Bookie Busters mid-week plays
The Dynamo are part of the mid-week plays. Courtesy of Wilf Thorne/Houston Dynamo

I always stress the importance of bankroll management and remind you thats it's a long process to become profitable in sports betting. The figure of 52.4% is one you'll hear referenced when discussing gambling. That's the winning percentage needed to break even when betting lines that are -110 (11/10).

The other day I ran across some numbers that put a perspective on how tough it truly is to win long term. Not only winning, but claiming to be a full-time sports bettor is something less than 3% of gamblers can pull off.

50 game Sample Size  betting -110 and winning 54% (27/50)

A $110 to win $100 bettor  profits $170
A $550 to win $500 bettor profits $850
A  $1100 to win $1000 bettor profits $1700

As you can see the small sample size shows you the meager amount of profit you make over the 50 game sample. If you can sustain this winning rate over time, you’ll  see your bankroll increase. But time is critical, so always remember there are more games and spots to get in on. Winning won't be accomplished overnight.

After a layoff in Bookie Buster plays, we return with a few bets to get the bankroll fatter in time for football season.

Plays

Wednesday 7/25/18

Vorskla Poltava at Dynamo Kiev   Ukraine Premier League
Kiev Team Total Over 2      3U

New York Red Bull at DC United - MLS
Both teams to score    MAX
Over 3        3U


Philadelphia Union at Houston Dynamo MLS
Houston Dynamo  ML 3U

Tolima at Atletico Nacional   Colombia Soccer
Atletico Nacional ML    2U

Thursday 2 MAX PLAYS
Pending.…

For any questions or comments reach me @JerryBoKnowz on Twitter

 

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Is leadership the main problem for Houston? Composite Getty Image.

With the Astros now officially ten games under .500 for the season, manager Joe Espada is taking a lot of heat from the fanbase for the team's struggles.

While we don't agree with the sentiment, we even hear fans clamoring for the return of Dusty Baker and Martin Maldonado, thinking the Astros wouldn't be in this mess if they were still here.

Which is ridiculous. First of all, Maldonado has been awful for the White Sox, hitting .048 (even worse than Jose Abreu's .065). And for those of you that think his work with the pitching staff justifies his pathetic offense. Let me say this: Where was Maldy's game calling genius for Hunter Brown, Cristian Javier, and Framber Valdez last year? All of them regressed significantly.

And as far as Baker is concerned, we have no idea how much a difference he would make, we can only speculate. Baker would also be dealing with a pitching staff ravaged with injuries. And let's not forget, Baker was the guy that refused to move Jose Abreu down in the batting order, even though he would finish the regular season with the ninth-worst OPS in baseball.

The reality of the situation is managers can only do so much in baseball. Which leads us to something else that needs to be considered. Is Espada being handcuffed by the front office? Espada and GM Dana Brown both said recently that Jon Singleton was going to get more at-bats while they give Abreu time off to try to figure things out. Yet, there Abreu was in the lineup again in the opening game of the Cubs series.

It makes us wonder how much power does Espada truly have? The Astros have some other options at first base. Yainer Diaz may only have eight games played at the position, but how much worse could he be than Abreu defensively? Abreu already has four errors, and Diaz is obviously a way better hitter. Victor Caratini isn't considered a plus offensive player, but his .276 batting average makes him look like Babe Ruth compared to Abreu. Let him catch more often and play Diaz at first. Starting Diaz at first more often could also lengthen his career long-term.

Maybe that's too wild of a move. Okay, fine. How about playing Mauricio Dubon at first base? I understand he doesn't have much experience at that position, but what's the downside of trying him there? If he can play shortstop, he can play first base. He's driving in runs at a higher rate (11 RBIs) than everyone on the team outside of Kyle Tucker and Yordan Alvarez. And he's producing like that as part-time player right now.

The other criticism we see of Espada is his use of Jon Singleton to pinch hit late in games. Let's be real, though, who else does Espada have on the roster to go to? Batting Abreu late in games in which you're trailing should be considered malpractice. Espada can only use who he has to work with. This all really stems from the Astros poor farm system.

They don't have anyone else to turn to. The draft picks the club lost from the sign-stealing scandal are really hurting them right now. First and second rounders from 2020 and 2021 should be helping you in 2024 at the big league level.

Maybe they go to Astros prospect Joey Loperfido soon, but after a hot start he has only two hits in his last six games.

Finally, we have to talk about what seems like a committee making baseball decisions. Lost in a committee is accountability. Who gets the blame for making poor decisions?

As time continues to pass it looks like moving on from former GM James Click was a massive mistake. He's the guy that didn't sign Abreu, but did trade Myles Straw (recently DFA'd) for Yainer Diaz and Phil Maton. He also built an elite bullpen without breaking the bank, and helped the club win a World Series in 2022.

The reality of the situation is Dusty Baker and James Click are not walking back through that door. And all good runs come to an end at some point. Is this what we're witnessing?

Don't miss the video above as we hit on all the points discussed and much more!

Catch Stone Cold 'Stros (an Astros podcast) with Charlie Pallilo, Brandon Strange, and Josh Jordan. We drop two episodes every week on SportsMapHouston's YouTube channel. You can also listen on Apple Podcast, Spotifyor wherever you get your podcasts.

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