GAMBLING GUIDE

Jerry Bo: Bookie busters World Cup edition

Jerry Bo
Jun 15, 2018, 7:17 am
Messi should help Argentina score more than one goal. Dennis Doyle/Getty Images

The anticipation is over, the World Cup has arrived. Well, let's be serious, the opening day of the tournament is nothing but a tease with the unpleasant opening ceremony, followed by a less than stellar matchup between the host nation Russia and Saudi Arabia.

The game was somewhat of a surprise, not so much by the team that won, but more of the fashion they did it in. Russia got off to a hot start netting five goals and a leg up in the group. The goal differential will be crucial when it comes down to group winners. Look for Uruguay to come out serious, knowing that second place in this group matches you up potentially with France in the round of 16. Saud Arabia looked extremely vulnerable and will be the group's punching bag.

The opening game to the tournament saw five total goals, with over backers laughing their way to the cashier. Historically, betting overs in the opening game of the group stages has been a bad idea. The element of playing in matches with stakes so high tend to make international teams play somewhat more cautious. This is especially true early in tournaments when teams are still getting accustomed to the stage and not making mistakes is a the top of every player's mind. Over time, the first group games have shown us to have less amount of goals than other stages of the competition.



As you can see, only twice since 1990 has the average been higher than 2.5 goals per game in the first match of the group stages. Brazil 2014 saw a record amount of goals averaging 3.06 per match, and we saw that carry over to Thursday's match.

Gamblers tend to have a short memory, and many will gravitate to backing overs with the success as of late in opening matches. I expect a regression at some point and the numbers getting back to normal, so tread overs carefully as the first week unfolds.

Picks

6/15

Uruguay vs Egypt - FIFA World Cup - Group A
Uruguay Moneyline -165     4*

Iran vs Morocco - FIFA World Cup - Group B
Morocco -.5   +126 1*

Spain vs Portugal- FIFA World Cup - Group B
Over 2      1*

6/16

Australia vs France - FIFA World Cup - Group C
France Team Total Over 2     MAX BET 5*

Iceland vs Argentina - FIFA World Cup - Group D
Argentina Team total over 1.5   3*

Denmark vs Peru - FIFA World Cup - Group C
PASS  (plenty of Peru futures)

Nigeria vs Croatia - FIFA World Cup - Group D
Over 2           2*
6/17

Serbia vs Costa Rica - FIFA World Cup - Group E
PASS

Mexico vs Germany - FIFA World Cup - Group F
PASS

Switzerland vs Brazil - FIFA World Cup - Group E
Brazil -1     3*

6/18

South Korea vs Sweden - FIFA World Cup - Group F
PASS

Panama vs Belgium - FIFA World Cup - Group G
PASS

England vs Tunisia - FIFA World Cup - Group G
PASS
 

6/19

Japan vs Colombia - FIFA World Cup - Group H
Colombia Moneyline    2*

Senegal vs Poland - FIFA World Cup - Group H
Over 2           2*

Egypt vs Russia - FIFA World Cup - Group A
PASS



For any questions or comments reach me @JerryBoKnowz on Twitter


 

 

Most Popular

SportsMap Emails
Are Awesome

Listen Live

ESPN Houston 97.5 FM

Astros on life support: Realities for the tough final stretch

With so much on the line for the Astros this past weekend, they couldn't possibly get swept by the Royals, could they?

That's exactly what they did thanks to some poor pitching, and an inability to get timely hits with runners in scoring position.

The Astros are currently clinging to the last wild card position as they head to Seattle to face the Mariners, with Justin Verlander on the mound for the 'Stros.

Starting pitching has been the biggest issue for the club as of late, with Hunter Brown looking unusable moving forward. Brown has given up, wait for this, 6 earned runs or more in 3 of his last 4 starts. His ERA for the season is now over 5.

So how will the rotation look over the final stretch of games? We know for the Mariners series the team is rolling out Verlander, Cristian Javier, and Framber Valdez.

The club is off on Thursday, and they head to Arizona for a 3-game series with the Diamondbacks that starts Friday. We predict JP France will pitch Friday, with Justin Verlander likely taking the ball Saturday.

Then all bets are off for Sunday. It could be Framber on 3-days rest, or all hands on deck for a bullpen game.

Of course, with the division race being so close, things could change on a daily basis. There's even a scenario where Arizona secures their wild card, and the final two games of the season don't matter for them.

The other big factor will be the outcome of the 4-game Rangers-Mariners series that finishes off the season.

Be sure to watch the video above as we examine all the scenarios leading up to the end of the regular season for Houston, and much more!

Watch Stone Cold 'Stros (an Astros podcast) every Thursday on SportsMap Houston's YouTube channel.

And listen to ESPN 97.5 and 92.5 FM for Houston's best sports talk.

astroshouston astrosmlb

SportsMap Emails
Are Awesome