GAMBLING GUIDE

Jerry Bo: Bookie busters World Cup edition

Messi should help Argentina score more than one goal. Dennis Doyle/Getty Images

The anticipation is over, the World Cup has arrived. Well, let's be serious, the opening day of the tournament is nothing but a tease with the unpleasant opening ceremony, followed by a less than stellar matchup between the host nation Russia and Saudi Arabia.

The game was somewhat of a surprise, not so much by the team that won, but more of the fashion they did it in. Russia got off to a hot start netting five goals and a leg up in the group. The goal differential will be crucial when it comes down to group winners. Look for Uruguay to come out serious, knowing that second place in this group matches you up potentially with France in the round of 16. Saud Arabia looked extremely vulnerable and will be the group's punching bag.

The opening game to the tournament saw five total goals, with over backers laughing their way to the cashier. Historically, betting overs in the opening game of the group stages has been a bad idea. The element of playing in matches with stakes so high tend to make international teams play somewhat more cautious. This is especially true early in tournaments when teams are still getting accustomed to the stage and not making mistakes is a the top of every player's mind. Over time, the first group games have shown us to have less amount of goals than other stages of the competition.



As you can see, only twice since 1990 has the average been higher than 2.5 goals per game in the first match of the group stages. Brazil 2014 saw a record amount of goals averaging 3.06 per match, and we saw that carry over to Thursday's match.

Gamblers tend to have a short memory, and many will gravitate to backing overs with the success as of late in opening matches. I expect a regression at some point and the numbers getting back to normal, so tread overs carefully as the first week unfolds.

Picks

6/15

Uruguay vs Egypt - FIFA World Cup - Group A
Uruguay Moneyline -165     4*

Iran vs Morocco - FIFA World Cup - Group B
Morocco -.5   +126 1*

Spain vs Portugal- FIFA World Cup - Group B
Over 2      1*

6/16

Australia vs France - FIFA World Cup - Group C
France Team Total Over 2     MAX BET 5*

Iceland vs Argentina - FIFA World Cup - Group D
Argentina Team total over 1.5   3*

Denmark vs Peru - FIFA World Cup - Group C
PASS  (plenty of Peru futures)

Nigeria vs Croatia - FIFA World Cup - Group D
Over 2           2*
6/17

Serbia vs Costa Rica - FIFA World Cup - Group E
PASS

Mexico vs Germany - FIFA World Cup - Group F
PASS

Switzerland vs Brazil - FIFA World Cup - Group E
Brazil -1     3*

6/18

South Korea vs Sweden - FIFA World Cup - Group F
PASS

Panama vs Belgium - FIFA World Cup - Group G
PASS

England vs Tunisia - FIFA World Cup - Group G
PASS
 

6/19

Japan vs Colombia - FIFA World Cup - Group H
Colombia Moneyline    2*

Senegal vs Poland - FIFA World Cup - Group H
Over 2           2*

Egypt vs Russia - FIFA World Cup - Group A
PASS



For any questions or comments reach me @JerryBoKnowz on Twitter


 

 

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It's all about Deshaun. Photo by Getty Images. Composite image by Brandon Strange.

The Texans moved to 3-7 following their 27-20 win over the Patriots. They are still without a permanent head coach and general manager. There lies the problem, and those problems will be settled this upcoming offseason. The new general manager and head coach will steer this franchise in the direction it needs to go in. Undoubtedly, Deshaun Watson will be at the forefront of what they do. How can he not be? You don't take a job like this with a quarterback like him and not consider him the centerpiece. What else would make one take either of those jobs? The salary cap hell the team is facing? The lack of draft picks coming off a terrible year? The faith ownership has placed in the NFL's version of Littlefinger?

Watson is the lone attraction to the flaming dumpster fire Cal McNair allowed to occur on his watch. If he's not careful, it could get worse and he'll find it hard to recover from. Watson signed an extension that'll keep him in Houston for another four years. He'll still be in his prime (barring any serious, career-threatening injury), and be eligible to hit the market as a free agent before he turns 30. So who do the Texans hire as head coach that can get the most out of Watson? Who can convince him to stay and re-sign after his extension is up?

The main cast of characters will most likely take better jobs. The Jets job is more attractive because of the cap space and draft picks. If the Falcons job opens up, so is it because of Matt Ryan and that offense. What coach/coaches would be interested in taking on this job that would be viable candidates given that the best of the best would take other jobs? Jayson Braddock and I tackled this topic not too long ago on Late Hits. Here are a few guys off the beaten path we felt were contenders:

Brian Daboll, Bills offensive coordinator: Daboll is a guy who, according to NFL.com's Lance Zierlein, is openly campaigning for this job. The work he's done with Josh Allen has been remarkable. Allen has gone from a raw prospect with all the physical tools to an MVP candidate. Who wouldn't want a guy like that in Watson's ear guiding him over the foreseeable future?

Greg Roman, Ravens offensive coordinator: Roman has done wonders for Colin Kaepernick and Lamar Jackson. He helped Kaepernick reach a Super Bowl with the 49ers and turned Jackson into last season's league MVP. Given his history with athletic quarterbacks, he should be a natural fit and given full consideration.

Tony Elliott, Clemson offensive coordinator: Here's where it gets interesting. Elliott has been the OC (or co-OC) at Clemson since 2015. He has an established relationship with Watson and a proven track record as a coordinator of high-powered offenses in college. He's the type of hire that won't cost as much as some big names will, but might be able to provide the same spark.

Note that all three of these guys are offensive coaches. I fully understand that the defense is an issue and needs help desperately. I also understand that the previous two coaches were offensive guys as well. But Watson is your franchise quarterback and the most attractive piece in a pile of flaming dung that resides on Kirby. If anyone is going to take this job, it'll be because of number four. I know these aren't the sexy names most folks would want to hear, but these names are more realistic as candidates. None of them has head coaching experience. That fact cheapens their price tag and lends itself to them being long shots. A lot of this depends on the general manager hire. We'll get into that in another articel. For right now, dwell on this and let me know what you think.

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