GAMBLING GUIDE

Jerry Bo: Bookie busters World Cup edition

Messi should help Argentina score more than one goal. Dennis Doyle/Getty Images

The anticipation is over, the World Cup has arrived. Well, let's be serious, the opening day of the tournament is nothing but a tease with the unpleasant opening ceremony, followed by a less than stellar matchup between the host nation Russia and Saudi Arabia.

The game was somewhat of a surprise, not so much by the team that won, but more of the fashion they did it in. Russia got off to a hot start netting five goals and a leg up in the group. The goal differential will be crucial when it comes down to group winners. Look for Uruguay to come out serious, knowing that second place in this group matches you up potentially with France in the round of 16. Saud Arabia looked extremely vulnerable and will be the group's punching bag.

The opening game to the tournament saw five total goals, with over backers laughing their way to the cashier. Historically, betting overs in the opening game of the group stages has been a bad idea. The element of playing in matches with stakes so high tend to make international teams play somewhat more cautious. This is especially true early in tournaments when teams are still getting accustomed to the stage and not making mistakes is a the top of every player's mind. Over time, the first group games have shown us to have less amount of goals than other stages of the competition.



As you can see, only twice since 1990 has the average been higher than 2.5 goals per game in the first match of the group stages. Brazil 2014 saw a record amount of goals averaging 3.06 per match, and we saw that carry over to Thursday's match.

Gamblers tend to have a short memory, and many will gravitate to backing overs with the success as of late in opening matches. I expect a regression at some point and the numbers getting back to normal, so tread overs carefully as the first week unfolds.

Picks

6/15

Uruguay vs Egypt - FIFA World Cup - Group A
Uruguay Moneyline -165     4*

Iran vs Morocco - FIFA World Cup - Group B
Morocco -.5   +126 1*

Spain vs Portugal- FIFA World Cup - Group B
Over 2      1*

6/16

Australia vs France - FIFA World Cup - Group C
France Team Total Over 2     MAX BET 5*

Iceland vs Argentina - FIFA World Cup - Group D
Argentina Team total over 1.5   3*

Denmark vs Peru - FIFA World Cup - Group C
PASS  (plenty of Peru futures)

Nigeria vs Croatia - FIFA World Cup - Group D
Over 2           2*
6/17

Serbia vs Costa Rica - FIFA World Cup - Group E
PASS

Mexico vs Germany - FIFA World Cup - Group F
PASS

Switzerland vs Brazil - FIFA World Cup - Group E
Brazil -1     3*

6/18

South Korea vs Sweden - FIFA World Cup - Group F
PASS

Panama vs Belgium - FIFA World Cup - Group G
PASS

England vs Tunisia - FIFA World Cup - Group G
PASS
 

6/19

Japan vs Colombia - FIFA World Cup - Group H
Colombia Moneyline    2*

Senegal vs Poland - FIFA World Cup - Group H
Over 2           2*

Egypt vs Russia - FIFA World Cup - Group A
PASS



For any questions or comments reach me @JerryBoKnowz on Twitter


 

 

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THE LEFT TURN

NASCAR: Coca-Cola 600 preview, picks

Watch out for Ryan Blaney this weekend. Photo via: Wiki Commons

It’s a Memorial Day Tradition; The NASCAR Cup Series heads home to Charlotte for the annual Coca-Cola 600. This race is probably the third most crucial race all season, behind the Daytona 500 and the Season Finale at Phoenix. Anyone who wins this race will always be able to say that they were Coke 600 champions. No race on the schedule is as long as this one, because of this there will be a 4th stage added to the race. Teams will be provided 13 sets of tires, and if the last few weeks have been any indication, they will need all the tires they can get. With the race being as long as it is, there is a good possibility this could be an attrition race and the driver that survives will more than likely win. The record for the most cautions in NASCAR history was 22 cautions, at this same race in 2005. Come Sunday, I bet we get close to that number.

What's the deal with all of these tire failures? Last week in the All-Star race we saw drivers like Kyle Busch, Kyle Larson, and Erik Jones all crash out because they had a flat. There are many factors that could be contributing to this, for one the tires are much wider and the sidewalls are much more narrow. Because of this, the tire falloff is much shorter, so now instead of going maybe 40-45 laps on one set of tires, drivers can now only go 25-30 laps. The other major facet is that a lot of teams are running much lower air pressures to get the car to handle better by being closer to the ground. Goodyear and NASCAR usually require the right side tires to run around 51-52 PSI, the rule however isn’t enforced for the left side tires, so drivers will push the limits to see how much they can take out to make the car faster. The fact that we were seeing such tire ware on smooth surfaces like Texas and Atlanta is a clear sign that there is a problem, but not all of it is on Goodyear. Only time will tell how this develops on tracks with old abrasive surfaces, like when they go back to Bristol in the fall.

One of NASCAR’s newest teams, Trackhouse racing, made a bit of a surprise announcement this week. Starting at Watkins Glenn in August, the team will run a third car with a series of international drivers, starting with 2007 Formula 1 World Champion Kimi Raikkonen. This is something that I think is interesting for the sport. I am a bit surprised that another team hasn’t already done this before. Having drivers like Kimi, one of the more world renowned racers in F1, can really bring a whole new audience to NASCAR. There have been rumors on whom some of the other drivers might be, from Daniel Riccardo to even Lewis Hamilton. There will be a lot of intrigue about who will be the next driver.

The driver that I have winning this weekend is Ryan Blaney. After winning the All-Star race, it seems like Roger Penske and the rest of the Ford camp are picking up steam. Overall, Blaney tends to struggle at this track with an 18.8 average finish, but if last week is any indication of how his car will run on mile and halves like Charlotte, he will be a fierce contender for the win.

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