Jerry Bo: NFL futures, odds and trends

The defending champion Eagles are third favorites to repeat.

According to the latest numbers, The San Fransisco 49ers are receiving the top amount of money wagered on futures with 10% of the total dollars. Surprisingly, they also lead the way with the total amount of tickets wagered on them to win the Super Bowl with 8%. Right behind them, you can find the Rams, Packers, Vikings, Patriots, and shockingly, the Gruden led Raiders.

So what do these numbers mean from a bigger picture? When trying to figure out where the public is betting behind and where sharps are sticking their dollars, look into these percentages. If the amount of dollars is higher than that of the total amount of tickets being placed on a particular team, then thats where the professional money is. In other words, the pros money outweighs that of the novice bettors although the volume might indicate differently. When picking not just futures but week by week, keep an eye out on the public money and what it does to the line. Sometimes, that will tell you what you need to know before backing a side. In most cases, you want to find your self on the sharp side and not the public.

2018 Super Bowl odds

New England Patriots    7/1
Minnesota Vikings    10/1
Philadelphia Eagles    10/1
Pittsburgh Steelers    10/1
Los Angeles Rams    12/1
Green Bay Packers    14/1
Atlanta Falcons    16/1
New Orleans Saints    16/1
Houston Texans    20/1
Jacksonville Jaguars    20/1
Los Angeles Chargers    20/1
San Francisco 49ers    20/1
Dallas Cowboys    25/1
Kansas City Chiefs    25/1
New York Giants    25/1
Carolina Panthers    33/1
Denver Broncos    33/1
Oakland Raiders    33/1
Baltimore Ravens    40/1
Detroit Lions    40/1
Tennessee Titans    40/1
Seattle Seahawks    50/1
Cleveland Browns    66/1
Indianapolis Colts    66/1
Tampa Bay Buccaneers    66/1
Arizona Cardinals    100/1
Buffalo Bills    100/1
Chicago Bears    100/1
Cincinnati Bengals    100/1
Miami Dolphins    100/1
Washington Redskins    100/1
New York Jets    150/1

Odds as of 8/7/2018

MVP race

Finding the MVP in the NFL usually comes with a specific flavor. The taste, is that of the quarterback position, hoisting the award the last 5 years in a row, Even more impressive, they have taken the prize 10 of the previous 11 seasons. It took the monstrous 2,097 yard, 13 total touchdown 2012 performance of Adrian Peterson to put a break in the decade-long trend.

Past winners
2007    Tom Brady    New England Patriots    Quarterback
2008    Peyton Manning (3)    Indianapolis Colts Quarterback
2009    Peyton Manning (4)    Indianapolis Colts Quarterback
2010    Tom Brady (2)    New England Patriots    Quarterback
2011    Aaron Rodgers    Green Bay Packers    Quarterback
2012    Adrian Peterson    Minnesota Vikings  Running back
2013    Peyton Manning (5)    Denver Broncos Quarterback
2014    Aaron Rodgers (2)    Green Bay Packers Quarterback
2015    Cam Newton    Carolina Panthers    Quarterback
2016    Matt Ryan    Atlanta Falcons    Quarterback
2017    Tom Brady (3)    New England Patriots    Quarterback


Aaron Rodgers +550
Tom Brady +800
Carson Wentz +850
Drew Brees +1500
Jimmy Garoppolo +1500  
Russell Wilson +2000
Cam Newton +2000
Deshaun Watson +2000
Matt Ryan +2200
Kirk Cousins +2200
Philip Rivers +2500
Ben Roethlisberger +2500
Derek Carr +3000
Andrew Luck +3000
Jared Goff +3000
Matthew Stafford +3300
Dak Prescott +3500
Le'Veon Bell +4000
Marcus Mariota +4000
Todd Gurley +4000
David Johnson +4500  
Antonio Brown +5000
Case Keenum +5000
Eli Manning +5000
Ezekiel Elliott +5000
Jameis Winston +5000
Patrick Mahomes +5500
Alex Smith +6000
Kareem Hunt +6000
Leonard Fournette +6000
LeSean McCoy +6000
Saquon Barkley +6000
Alvin Kamara +6600
Blake Bortles +6600
Julio Jones +7000
Joe Flacco +7500
Mitch Trubisky +9000
AJ Green +10000
Andy Dalton +10000
DeAndre Hopkins +10000
Devonta Freeman +10000
JJ Watt +10000
Rob Gronkowski +10000
Sam Bradford +12500
Tyrod Taylor +12500
Nick Foles +12500
Dalvin Cook +12500

Odds as of 8/7/2018

The rookie race

When trying to predict which rookie will be the biggest breakout, certain trends stand out. Some, as in no position other than quarterback, running back, and wide reciever has ever won the offensive award. In other words, omit tight ends from the OROY category, and you have a class dominated by the Running back position winning the award 33 times, the other two positions both 9 times (QB/RB).

In the last 5 years, quarterbacks have only won the award one time, but If you go back a little further, from 2008- 2012, quarterbacks won it 4 out of 5 years.

With Alvin Kamara (RB) winning the award last year, running backs haven't gone back to back since Clinton Portis backdoored the Chicago Bears Anthony Thomas, back in 2002

In the 51 years of existence of the award for the best incoming offensive player, 70.9% have been first-round picks. Even further, 86.2%  were drafted in the first two rounds, so those searching for the deep flyer, guess again.

Or, you can tell that to Broncos former running back Mike Anderson, who did so after being selected in the sixth round with the 189th pick of the 2000 draft.

Past winners
2000    Mike Anderson    Denver Broncos Running back    
2001    Anthony Thomas    Chicago Bears Running back    
2002    Clinton Portis    Denver Broncos Running back    
2003    Anquan Boldin    Arizona Cardinals    Wide receiver
2004    Ben Roethlisberger    Pittsburgh Steelers Quarterback    
2005    Cadillac Williams    Tampa Bay Buccaneers   Running back
2006    Vince Young    Tennessee Titans    Quarterback
2007    Adrian Peterson    Minnesota Vikings  Running back
2008    Matt Ryan    Atlanta Falcons    Quarterback
2009    Percy Harvin    Minnesota Vikings    Wide receiver
2010    Sam Bradford    St. Louis Rams  Quarterback
2011    Cam Newton    Carolina Panthers    Quarterback
2012    Robert Griffin III    Washington Redskins Quarterback    
2013    Eddie Lacy    Green Bay Packers    Running back
2014    Odell Beckham Jr.    New York Giants Wide receiver    
2015    Todd Gurley    St. Louis Rams   Running back
2016    Dak Prescott    Dallas Cowboys  Quarterback
2017    Alvin Kamara    New Orleans Saints    Running back

2018 NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year odds

Saquon Barkley +140
Baker Mayfield +400  
Josh Allen +900          
Josh Rosen +900        
Sony Michel +1000    
Rashaad Penny +1400
Calvin Ridley +1600    
Derrius Guice +1600  * Update: Suffered torn ACL in 1st preseason game.
Sam Darnold +1600   
Royce Freeman +1800           
Lamar Jackson +2000
Christian Kirk +3300   
Courtland Sutton +3300        
D.J. Moore +3300        
James Washington +3300      
Ronald Jones +3300   

Odds as of 8/7/2018

For any questions or comments reach me @JerryBoKnowz on Twitter.


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Now my job: Texans feast on Lions

Photo by Getty Images.

Thanksgiving is full of tradition. There's the typical family gathering, large meal, and of course, football. Sometimes, new traditions are added and old ones are retired. I think the Texans did both in their impressive 41-25 win over the Lions in Detroit. Old traditions were carried on (Lions losing on Thanksgiving), some were put to rest (Texans not being able to get turnovers), and new ones were started (multiple passing touchdowns by Deshaun Watson in six straight games).

The fact that this defense got three turnovers in the game was unbelievable! They got all three in the first quarter within the span of eight plays. JJ Watt's pick-six was insane. He went for a batted ball, ended up catching it, and ran it in. They forced Jonathan Williams to fumble on the Lions' very next play from scrimmage and recovered it. On the Lions' next possession, the Texans recovered yet another fumble after the challenge was reversed. Great call by the coaching staff to challenge and win. The defense looked good. Tyrell Adams stood out because he was in on those two fumbles, made 17 total tackles with 14 of them being solo tackles. They also brought pressure that seemed to make Matthew Stafford very inaccurate and resulted in four sacks. I give defensive coordinator Anthony Weaver credit for knowing he needs to blitz to get pressure, but the run defense has to improve.

The offense kept the tempo up in this game as well. The spread and hurry-up were used to keep the Lions already staggered defense off balance. Knowing the Lions were without a couple defensive backs, I thought it would be the perfect marriage of their defense and the Texans' offense. A buddy asked before the game about the line (Texans -3.5) and the over/under (52.5). I told him bet the Texans and the over because neither team can play defense and both have good quarterbacks. Offensive coordinator Tim Kelly put together another good game plan and Watson executed it flawlessly. One route combo I saw later on in the game I particularly enjoyed. Two receivers were tight to the left side. Cooks ran a hook/curl and settled in the middle of the zone while Fuller ran a vertical route. Duke Johnson ran a swing route to that same side. It left Cooks wide open as the attention went to Johnson in the flat, Fuller deep, and the action to the other play side. Route combos are important because it gives the quarterback different reads as he goes through his progressions and lets him pick apart the defense based on what he sees. Combine that with Watson's play and the way Kelly has changed his play calling now that he's liberated from he who shall not be named, we're seeing a beautiful thing.

As good as things were, there's still room for improvement. The defense gives up way too many easy yards, both run and pass. They can't get pressure bringing only four and will often give up big plays if the blitz is picked up. Plus the run defense is still an issue as evidenced by the Lions' first possession of the second half. The Lions ran the ball 10 plays straight for a total of 58 yards on that drive. Utterly ridiculous! Watson was good (17/25 318 yards and four touchdowns), but he missed two more touchdowns with passes slightly off, and continues to hold onto the ball too long at times. The difference between these two issues I've presented here is the fact that Watson has so played well, his "issues" are minor and very correctable, while the defense is terrible and there's no easy fix in sight. But let Romeo Crennel and Anthony Weaver tell it, they're getting the most out of these guys and they're playing disciplined.

The thought that this team may actually creep into the playoff picture may take shape better after next week if they can beat the Colts. I doubt it, but it is getting interesting. Let's see what else happens around them because they need help getting there.

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