The defending champion Eagles are third favorites to repeat. Eagles.com
According to the latest numbers, The San Fransisco 49ers are receiving the top amount of money wagered on futures with 10% of the total dollars. Surprisingly, they also lead the way with the total amount of tickets wagered on them to win the Super Bowl with 8%. Right behind them, you can find the Rams, Packers, Vikings, Patriots, and shockingly, the Gruden led Raiders.
So what do these numbers mean from a bigger picture? When trying to figure out where the public is betting behind and where sharps are sticking their dollars, look into these percentages. If the amount of dollars is higher than that of the total amount of tickets being placed on a particular team, then thats where the professional money is. In other words, the pros money outweighs that of the novice bettors although the volume might indicate differently. When picking not just futures but week by week, keep an eye out on the public money and what it does to the line. Sometimes, that will tell you what you need to know before backing a side. In most cases, you want to find your self on the sharp side and not the public.
2018 Super Bowl odds
New England Patriots 7/1
Minnesota Vikings 10/1
Philadelphia Eagles 10/1
Pittsburgh Steelers 10/1
Los Angeles Rams 12/1
Green Bay Packers 14/1
Atlanta Falcons 16/1
New Orleans Saints 16/1
Houston Texans 20/1
Jacksonville Jaguars 20/1
Los Angeles Chargers 20/1
San Francisco 49ers 20/1
Dallas Cowboys 25/1
Kansas City Chiefs 25/1
New York Giants 25/1
Carolina Panthers 33/1
Denver Broncos 33/1
Oakland Raiders 33/1
Baltimore Ravens 40/1
Detroit Lions 40/1
Tennessee Titans 40/1
Seattle Seahawks 50/1
Cleveland Browns 66/1
Indianapolis Colts 66/1
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 66/1
Arizona Cardinals 100/1
Buffalo Bills 100/1
Chicago Bears 100/1
Cincinnati Bengals 100/1
Miami Dolphins 100/1
Washington Redskins 100/1
New York Jets 150/1
Odds as of 8/7/2018
MVP race
Finding the MVP in the NFL usually comes with a specific flavor. The taste, is that of the quarterback position, hoisting the award the last 5 years in a row, Even more impressive, they have taken the prize 10 of the previous 11 seasons. It took the monstrous 2,097 yard, 13 total touchdown 2012 performance of Adrian Peterson to put a break in the decade-long trend.
Past winners
2007 Tom Brady New England Patriots Quarterback
2008 Peyton Manning (3) Indianapolis Colts Quarterback
2009 Peyton Manning (4) Indianapolis Colts Quarterback
2010 Tom Brady (2) New England Patriots Quarterback
2011 Aaron Rodgers Green Bay Packers Quarterback
2012 Adrian Peterson Minnesota Vikings Running back
2013 Peyton Manning (5) Denver Broncos Quarterback
2014 Aaron Rodgers (2) Green Bay Packers Quarterback
2015 Cam Newton Carolina Panthers Quarterback
2016 Matt Ryan Atlanta Falcons Quarterback
2017 Tom Brady (3) New England Patriots Quarterback
2018 NFL MVP ODDS
Aaron Rodgers +550
Tom Brady +800
Carson Wentz +850
Drew Brees +1500
Jimmy Garoppolo +1500
Russell Wilson +2000
Cam Newton +2000
Deshaun Watson +2000
Matt Ryan +2200
Kirk Cousins +2200
Philip Rivers +2500
Ben Roethlisberger +2500
Derek Carr +3000
Andrew Luck +3000
Jared Goff +3000
Matthew Stafford +3300
Dak Prescott +3500
Le'Veon Bell +4000
Marcus Mariota +4000
Todd Gurley +4000
David Johnson +4500
Antonio Brown +5000
Case Keenum +5000
Eli Manning +5000
Ezekiel Elliott +5000
Jameis Winston +5000
Patrick Mahomes +5500
Alex Smith +6000
Kareem Hunt +6000
Leonard Fournette +6000
LeSean McCoy +6000
Saquon Barkley +6000
Alvin Kamara +6600
Blake Bortles +6600
Julio Jones +7000
Joe Flacco +7500
Mitch Trubisky +9000
AJ Green +10000
Andy Dalton +10000
DeAndre Hopkins +10000
Devonta Freeman +10000
JJ Watt +10000
Rob Gronkowski +10000
Sam Bradford +12500
Tyrod Taylor +12500
Nick Foles +12500
Dalvin Cook +12500
Odds as of 8/7/2018
The rookie race
When trying to predict which rookie will be the biggest breakout, certain trends stand out. Some, as in no position other than quarterback, running back, and wide reciever has ever won the offensive award. In other words, omit tight ends from the OROY category, and you have a class dominated by the Running back position winning the award 33 times, the other two positions both 9 times (QB/RB).
In the last 5 years, quarterbacks have only won the award one time, but If you go back a little further, from 2008- 2012, quarterbacks won it 4 out of 5 years.
With Alvin Kamara (RB) winning the award last year, running backs haven't gone back to back since Clinton Portis backdoored the Chicago Bears Anthony Thomas, back in 2002
In the 51 years of existence of the award for the best incoming offensive player, 70.9% have been first-round picks. Even further, 86.2% were drafted in the first two rounds, so those searching for the deep flyer, guess again.
Or, you can tell that to Broncos former running back Mike Anderson, who did so after being selected in the sixth round with the 189th pick of the 2000 draft.
Past winners
2000 Mike Anderson Denver Broncos Running back
2001 Anthony Thomas Chicago Bears Running back
2002 Clinton Portis Denver Broncos Running back
2003 Anquan Boldin Arizona Cardinals Wide receiver
2004 Ben Roethlisberger Pittsburgh Steelers Quarterback
2005 Cadillac Williams Tampa Bay Buccaneers Running back
2006 Vince Young Tennessee Titans Quarterback
2007 Adrian Peterson Minnesota Vikings Running back
2008 Matt Ryan Atlanta Falcons Quarterback
2009 Percy Harvin Minnesota Vikings Wide receiver
2010 Sam Bradford St. Louis Rams Quarterback
2011 Cam Newton Carolina Panthers Quarterback
2012 Robert Griffin III Washington Redskins Quarterback
2013 Eddie Lacy Green Bay Packers Running back
2014 Odell Beckham Jr. New York Giants Wide receiver
2015 Todd Gurley St. Louis Rams Running back
2016 Dak Prescott Dallas Cowboys Quarterback
2017 Alvin Kamara New Orleans Saints Running back
2018 NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year odds
Saquon Barkley +140
Baker Mayfield +400
Josh Allen +900
Josh Rosen +900
Sony Michel +1000
Rashaad Penny +1400
Calvin Ridley +1600
Derrius Guice +1600 * Update: Suffered torn ACL in 1st preseason game.
Sam Darnold +1600
Royce Freeman +1800
Lamar Jackson +2000
Christian Kirk +3300
Courtland Sutton +3300
D.J. Moore +3300
James Washington +3300
Ronald Jones +3300
Odds as of 8/7/2018
For any questions or comments reach me @JerryBoKnowz on Twitter.
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After finishing up with the Guardians the Astros have a rather important series for early May with the Seattle Mariners heading to town for the weekend. While it’s still too early to be an absolute must-win series for the Astros, losing the series to drop seven or eight games off the division lead would make successfully defending their American League West title that much more unlikely.
Since their own stumble out of the gate to a 6-10 record the Mariners have been racking up series wins, including one this week over the Atlanta Braves. The M’s offense is largely Mmm Mmm Bad, but their pitching is sensational. In 18 games after the 6-10 start, the Mariners gave up five runs in a game once. In the other 17 games they only gave up four runs once. Over the 18 games their starting pitchers gave up 18 earned runs total with a 1.44 earned run average. That’s absurd. Coming into the season Seattle’s starting rotation was clearly better on paper than those of the Astros and Texas Rangers, and it has crystal clearly played out as such into the second month of the schedule.
While it’s natural to focus on and fret over one’s own team's woes when they are plentiful as they have been for the Astros, a reminder that not all grass is greener elsewhere. Alex Bregman has been awful so far. So has young Mariners’ superstar Julio Rodriguez. A meager four extra base hits over his first 30 games were all Julio produced down at the ballyard. That the Mariners are well ahead of the Astros with J-Rod significantly underperforming is good news for Seattle.
Caratini comes through!
So it turns out the Astros are allowed to have a Puerto Rican-born catcher who can hit a little bit. Victor Caratini’s pedigree is not that of a quality offensive player, but he has swung the bat well thus far in his limited playing time and provided the most exciting moment of the Astros’ season with his two-out two-run 10th inning game winning home run Tuesday night. I grant that one could certainly say “Hey! Ronel Blanco finishing off his no-hitter has been the most exciting moment.” I opt for the suddenness of Caratini’s blow turning near defeat into instant victory for a team that has been lousy overall to this point. Frittering away a game the Astros had led 8-3 would have been another blow. Instead, to the Victor belong the spoils.
Pudge Rodriguez is the greatest native Puerto Rican catcher, but he was no longer a good hitter when with the Astros for the majority of the 2009 season. Then there’s Martin Maldonado.
Maldonado’s hitting stats with the Astros look Mike Piazza-ian compared to what Jose Abreu was doing this season. Finally, mercifully for all, Abreu is off the roster as he accepts a stint at rookie-level ball in Florida to see if he can perform baseball-CPR on his swing and career. Until or unless he proves otherwise, Abreu is washed up and at some point the Astros will have to accept it and swallow whatever is left on his contract that runs through next season. For now Abreu makes over $120,000 per game to not be on the roster. At his level of performance, that’s a better deal than paying him that money to be on the roster.
Abreu’s seven hits in 71 at bats for an .099 batting average with a .269 OPS is a humiliating stat line. In 2018 George Springer went to sleep the night of June 13 batting .293 after going hitless in his last four at bats in a 13-5 Astros’ win over Oakland. At the time no one could have ever envisioned that Springer had started a deep, deep funk which would have him endure a nightmarish six for 78 stretch at the plate (.077 batting average). Springer then hit .293 the rest of the season.
Abreu’s exile opened the door for Joey Loperfido to begin his Major League career. Very cool for Loperfido to smack a two-run single in his first game. He also struck out twice. Loperfido will amass whiffs by the bushel, he had 37 strikeouts in 101 at bats at AAA Sugar Land. Still, if he can hit .225 with some walks mixed in (he drew 16 with the Space Cowboys) and deliver some of his obvious power (13 homers in 25 games for the ex-Skeeters) that’s an upgrade over Abreu/Jon Singleton, as well as over Jake Meyers and the awful showing Chas McCormick has posted so far. Frankly, it seems unwise that the Astros only had Loperfido play seven games at first base in the minors this year. If McCormick doesn’t pick it up soon and with Meyers displaying limited offensive upside, the next guy worth a call-up is outfielder Pedro Leon. In January 2021 the Astros gave Leon four million dollars to sign out of Cuba and called him a “rapid mover to the Major Leagues.” Well…
Over his first three minor league seasons Leon flashed tools but definitely underwhelmed. He has been substantially better so far this year. He turns 26 May 28. Just maybe the Astros offense could be the cause of fewer Ls with Loperfido at first and Leon in center field.
Catch our weekly Stone Cold ‘Stros podcast. Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and I discuss varied Astros topics. The first post for the week generally goes up Monday afternoon (second part released Tuesday) via YouTube: stone cold stros - YouTube with the complete audio available via Apple Podcast, Spotify, or wherever you get your podcasts.