PLAYOFF TEST

Joel Blank: Timberwolves will not be an easy out for Rockets

Joel Blank: Timberwolves will not be an easy out for Rockets
Karl Anthony Towns did not play well in Game 1, but he is a matchup nightmare. Tim Warner/Getty Images

Before all the Kool Aid drinking Rockets fans get their underwear in a wad, I'm not predicting a Timberwolves upset in this opening round match up with the Rockets. What I am telling rational Rockets fans that will listen and be objective is that this Minnesota team is better than most No. 8 seeds that come about each year in the NBA Playoffs, and Game 1 of the series bore that out.

 This is a team of talented veterans that were sitting in the top 4 of the Western conference for most of the year until their All-NBA G/F Jimmy Butler missed 17 straight games during the heat of the playoff race. In that time,the team started a free fall that took them all the way to 8th spot, where they needed a win on the final night of the regular season just to get in. Without that injury, this team probably would have had home court in the first round and been a formidable opponent and sure fire contender in the West.

With all that said, they still can rock the boat if they can find a way to upset the top seeded Rockets. That was then, this is now and Minnesota has a good mix of talent and coaching that can still put it together before it's too late. Also keep in mind that the Rockets road to the conference finals is much tougher than that of the Warriors, even as the #1 seed. If Houston can find a way to get past Minnesota, they will play the winner of the Thunder/Jazz series and be in for a physical and demanding test against two of the hottest second half teams in the West. Portland plays uptempo and that plays right into the Warriors' hands and the Pelicans, should they upset the Blazers, are beat up and missing Boogie Cousins. Regardless of what's ahead, let's take a look at what the T-Wolves bring to the table in round 1. 

It begins and ends with Jimmy Butler, a native of Tomball, Texas who lives in Houston in the off season. He would like nothing better than to put on a show in his home town and shock the world. For most of the season he was an MVP candidate until he went down with that knee injury that forced him to miss those 17 games. He averaged 22 points a game shooting 47% from the field and is their end-all, be-all. He has a good relationship with head coach Tom Thibeodeau, having played for him in two seprate cities, knows how to score and has a wealth of playoff experience. It's his team and if they are to show up and play well, it has to start with Bulter.

Karl Anthony Towns is one of the best young centers in the league. More importantly, he is one of the best all around players in the NBA.  In just his third year in the league he averaged 21 points and 12 rebounds per game, which were totals on par with his career averages. KAT also shot 42% from 3 point range, which means he will constantly force Clint Capella away from the basket and out on the perimeter to guard him. This will open up the lane for penetration and cause the Rockets to have to rotate and help from the weak side in the paint, lmiting the teams' rim protection.

Andrew Wiggins is a very talented young player that has yet to maximize his abilities on the highest level of competition.  He has all the tools to be a star in  In this league, but whether you blame it on the system or his inability to adapt to the more physical style of the NBA, he has yet to achieve the lofty goals set by basketball experts who scouted him when he entered the draft. With that said, he averaged 18 points a game and 5 rebounds and will be a formidable opponent for Trevor Ariza or any of the other Rockets "wings" who are forced to guard him on the perimeter. The biggest drawback to Wiggins' game, maybe his head coach who does not let his team play fast. Thibodeu insists on calling plays and sets on almost every offensive trip down the floor. If Minnesota is able to hang with Houston in a game or in this series, look for it to be because they are playing fast and maximizing their talents on the offensive end. 

Minnesota is a talented roster of players playing for a bit of a control freak. If Thibodeau could just take it down a notch and just let his young "Timberpuppies" run like it was an iditarod, they might have a better chance againt the high scoring Rockets. Slowing the ball down on every offensive posession stifles the athleticism and talent of Butler, Wiggings and Towns, as well as the rest of the veteran squad and in the process plays right into Houston's hands.

Aside from the Wolves version of a Big 3, the Timberwolves have a few other players that are worth noting in this series. 

Jamal Crawford is consistently one of the best sixth men in the league and Rockets fans know him well. "J-Crossover" has killed Houston over his career and has filled it up off the bench for many opponents that the Rockets have struggled with, especially in the playoffs. Most recently he came off the pine for the Clippers and provided a spark  in the Western Conference Semi Finals in 2016.

Jeff Teague  Is a savvy, veteran point guard that has been an All Star and runs the Wolves system on both ends of the floor. Teague average 14 points and 7 assists on the season and only turned the ball over 2 and a 1/2 times per contest. He is a 37% 3 point shooter and makes 85% of his free throws. He is steady and he is proven. Taj Gibson is another savy veteran who is counted on to stabilize the offense and energize the defense. He almost single handely led the Wolves to the post season with his defense against the Nuggets in the win or go home final game of the regular season. He made key play after key play while getting multiple stops against a much bigger and more physically gifted player in Nikola Jokic. Look for him to lead the low post defense against any Rockets players attacking the rim. In short these three guys won't make mistakes and could be key if Minnesota is to make it a series.

One other factor for Minnesota has to be their head coach. Thibodeau is a defensive minded coach that directed the Celtics "D" when they won it all in 2008. He is a desciple of Jeff Van Gundy and therefore, he knows how to scheme and make adjustments from game to game in a seven game series. He is one of the best X's and O's coaches in the NBA and will look to throw defensive wrinkles at the Rockets, especially in how and when they double team Harden and Paul. The biggest drawback for Thibodeau and company may be the lack of personnel capable of executing his game plan as the series wears on.

In the end, this series should come down to defense and the Rockets have a huge advantage. As good as Minnesota is on offense, and they are good, averaging over 109 points per game, they are not nearly as effective on defense.

Towns is lazy and seemingly loses interest and picks up silly fouls. Butler and Taj Gibson are quality defenders but can't do it alone. The rest of the Minnesota team is either undersized, older, or less talented when it comes to getting stops at critical times and keeping up with Houston. The Rockets have younger legs and too much talent to be slowed down or stopped by this Timberwolves team. I look for the Rockets to take the series in five games, but don't be surprised if the Wolves put up a decent fight.

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Have the Astros turned a corner? Photo by Logan Riely/Getty Images.

After finishing up with the Guardians the Astros have a rather important series for early May with the Seattle Mariners heading to town for the weekend. While it’s still too early to be an absolute must-win series for the Astros, losing the series to drop seven or eight games off the division lead would make successfully defending their American League West title that much more unlikely.

Since their own stumble out of the gate to a 6-10 record the Mariners have been racking up series wins, including one this week over the Atlanta Braves. The M’s offense is largely Mmm Mmm Bad, but their pitching is sensational. In 18 games after the 6-10 start, the Mariners gave up five runs in a game once. In the other 17 games they only gave up four runs once. Over the 18 games their starting pitchers gave up 18 earned runs total with a 1.44 earned run average. That’s absurd. Coming into the season Seattle’s starting rotation was clearly better on paper than those of the Astros and Texas Rangers, and it has crystal clearly played out as such into the second month of the schedule.

While it’s natural to focus on and fret over one’s own team's woes when they are plentiful as they have been for the Astros, a reminder that not all grass is greener elsewhere. Alex Bregman has been awful so far. So has young Mariners’ superstar Julio Rodriguez. A meager four extra base hits over his first 30 games were all Julio produced down at the ballyard. That the Mariners are well ahead of the Astros with J-Rod significantly underperforming is good news for Seattle.

Caratini comes through!

So it turns out the Astros are allowed to have a Puerto Rican-born catcher who can hit a little bit. Victor Caratini’s pedigree is not that of a quality offensive player, but he has swung the bat well thus far in his limited playing time and provided the most exciting moment of the Astros’ season with his two-out two-run 10th inning game winning home run Tuesday night. I grant that one could certainly say “Hey! Ronel Blanco finishing off his no-hitter has been the most exciting moment.” I opt for the suddenness of Caratini’s blow turning near defeat into instant victory for a team that has been lousy overall to this point. Frittering away a game the Astros had led 8-3 would have been another blow. Instead, to the Victor belong the spoils.

Pudge Rodriguez is the greatest native Puerto Rican catcher, but he was no longer a good hitter when with the Astros for the majority of the 2009 season. Then there’s Martin Maldonado.

Maldonado’s hitting stats with the Astros look Mike Piazza-ian compared to what Jose Abreu was doing this season. Finally, mercifully for all, Abreu is off the roster as he accepts a stint at rookie-level ball in Florida to see if he can perform baseball-CPR on his swing and career. Until or unless he proves otherwise, Abreu is washed up and at some point the Astros will have to accept it and swallow whatever is left on his contract that runs through next season. For now Abreu makes over $120,000 per game to not be on the roster. At his level of performance, that’s a better deal than paying him that money to be on the roster.

Abreu’s seven hits in 71 at bats for an .099 batting average with a .269 OPS is a humiliating stat line. In 2018 George Springer went to sleep the night of June 13 batting .293 after going hitless in his last four at bats in a 13-5 Astros’ win over Oakland. At the time no one could have ever envisioned that Springer had started a deep, deep funk which would have him endure a nightmarish six for 78 stretch at the plate (.077 batting average). Springer then hit .293 the rest of the season.

Abreu’s exile opened the door for Joey Loperfido to begin his Major League career. Very cool for Loperfido to smack a two-run single in his first game. He also struck out twice. Loperfido will amass whiffs by the bushel, he had 37 strikeouts in 101 at bats at AAA Sugar Land. Still, if he can hit .225 with some walks mixed in (he drew 16 with the Space Cowboys) and deliver some of his obvious power (13 homers in 25 games for the ex-Skeeters) that’s an upgrade over Abreu/Jon Singleton, as well as over Jake Meyers and the awful showing Chas McCormick has posted so far. Frankly, it seems unwise that the Astros only had Loperfido play seven games at first base in the minors this year. If McCormick doesn’t pick it up soon and with Meyers displaying limited offensive upside, the next guy worth a call-up is outfielder Pedro Leon. In January 2021 the Astros gave Leon four million dollars to sign out of Cuba and called him a “rapid mover to the Major Leagues.” Well…

Over his first three minor league seasons Leon flashed tools but definitely underwhelmed. He has been substantially better so far this year. He turns 26 May 28. Just maybe the Astros offense could be the cause of fewer Ls with Loperfido at first and Leon in center field.

Catch our weekly Stone Cold ‘Stros podcast. Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and I discuss varied Astros topics. The first post for the week generally goes up Monday afternoon (second part released Tuesday) via YouTube: stone cold stros - YouTube with the complete audio available via Apple Podcast, Spotify, or wherever you get your podcasts.

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