BEEFING UP
Joel Blank: What is missing from the Rockets? Another big man to add depth
Jan 29, 2018, 6:00 am
What's missing?
Is the glass half-full, or is the glass half empty? Depending on your answer to that question, we can judge your level of optimism or pessimism as the Rockets get closer to the postseason. If the glass is half-full, then you are ecstatic about the additions of Chris Paul, P.J. Tucker, and Luc Mbah a Moute and the fact that your Rockets team has the second best record in the entire league. On top of that, they’ve taken the season series from the defending champion Warriors, winning two out of three meetings. If you answered the glass is half empty, then you are worried about what happens when the Rockets stop making threes, you have a bit of discomfort in thinking about a seven game series against a Gregg Popovich-coached team that will try and take away the three and force you to play a half court game. Then there's the team you are obsessed with, the defending champion Golden State Warriors, who seem to do everything well. Regardless of how you answered the question, what's the answer? What's missing from this year's Houston Rockets?
We all know the Rockets have plenty of star power, and can score with anyone in the NBA. We know with the additions of Tucker and Mbah a Moute, the Rockets have improved their defense immensely and taken steps to improve the end of the floor that was mostly scrutinized at the end of last season. Chris Paul has helped to solidify both ends of the floor and give the team a second "go-to guy", while bolstering the defense as one of the league leaders in steals year after year. The most glaring weakness that this team has heading towards the trade deadline is a lack of depth on the front line and a lack of quality low post defenders that can stack up with the size and style of play that teams have implemented against Houston in the past that has sent the Rockets squad packing prematurely in the playoffs. Clint Capela has been great and is a perfect fit for what the Rockets try to do on both ends of the floor. He is a leading candidate for the Most Improved Player award and is the best rim protector the team has. The fact is, he can't do it alone. Nene has been a nice addition to the squad, but over the past season and a half, no matter how hard they have tried to keep him fresh and ready for the playoffs, he has been dinged up, injured and can't be counted on to play major minutes. Tarik Black is a good, young big man, but he has shown that he isn't quite ready for the big time when he has gotten opportunities to play and makes too many mistakes to be put on the floor when the lights are their brightest. Given the Rockets past problems in the playoffs when facing big front lines, they need to be looking for solutions now, rather than searching for answers in a panic later. Need I remind you of how the Blazers eliminated Houston from the post season with Robin Lopez and a steady dose of LaMarcus Aldridge, or when Aldridge and Gasol and company beat a more talented and athletic Rockets team and sent them home without even suiting up Kawhi Leonard in the deciding game? Daryl Morey and his staff have long memories and a short window, so you know they are already crunching the numbers and making calls to try and eliminate the last glaring weakness this team may have.
In the last three games the Rockets have played, they have gone against different variations of size up front that could give them problems if they faced a team with a similar style in the playoffs. Miami ran out an athletic center in Hassan Whiteside, and a combination of very athletic and very long position players around him that gave the Rockets fits as they were able to easily contest shots on the perimeter, defend passing lanes and alter shots all over the floor while still crashing the boards. Whiteside was virtually unstoppable in the first quarter where he had his way with any and all Rockets defenders and finished with 22 points and 13 rebounds. Against the Pelicans in New Orleans on Friday, the Rockets ran up against the biggest front line in the NBA and it gave them problems. DeMarcus Cousins and Anthony Davis combined for 42 points and 24 rebounds while they dominated in the paint on both ends of the floor. Yesterday against the Phoenix Suns, a game that should have been an easy victory was made more difficult by Tyson Chandler in the middle grabbing 15 rebounds, altering shots and adding 11 points. The fact is, the Rockets are a good team that is getting better, but in order to help solidify their chances to get to the NBA finals and achieve all of their team goals, they need to add depth to the front line.
With the trade deadline looming Feb. 8, the question is can Daryl Morey do it again? Every year since he has become the Rockets general manager he has made at least one trade and I don't expect this year to be any different. Last year he was able to add a prolific scorer off the bench in Lou Williams. In other years he has just looked to add depth for the future. This year, with the team on the cusp of competing for a championship, it may be the most important year he dabbles in to the art of making a deal. What makes it more difficult this year is that the Rockets have a very solid rotation and can't afford to give up too much to get an extra big man for the stretch run. You have seen what this team looks like when it is missing one or more of their key players, and sometimes it's not very pretty. So while I expect Morey to explore any and all trade possibilities and probably pull the trigger on a minor deal before the deadline, the True Value may be lurking after Feb. 8.
Once the trade deadline has passed, it is common practice for teams that will not be going to the playoffs to buy out veteran players and try to save some overall money from their bottom line. This is a win-win for the veteran players released, because for whatever money they give up, they are given a chance to play for a team that is most likely going to the playoffs and competing for the opportunity to win a title. The Rockets are a team any veteran released or bought out would love to play for. Not only would the player recoup a portion of whatever money he gave up in a buyout by getting a playoff share from a squad virtually guaranteed to go deep in the Western Conference, but most guys want a shot to compete for a ring and the Rockets definitely give them a chance to do just that. So, with all that being said, who might be available and on the open market when the Rockets start looking for potential upgrades on the front line? here are three names to keep an eye on in the next few months, as possible big men the Rockets could add to their roster before they embark on their playoff push and quest to bring a title to H-Town:
Chandler is an experienced, veteran big man who lives around the rim on both ends of the floor. On offense, he is the master of the pick-and-roll and lob or alley-oop. On the other end of the floor, Chandler is a smart defender that still can alter and block shots while cleaning the glass and playing solid low post defense. The fact that he played with Chris Paul in New Orleans is an added plus as the two of them already have great chemistry and he would be an easy fit and addition to the team. The one draw back is that he has one more year on his contract after this season at 13.5 million dollars and he may not be willing to walk away from that in a buyout? That also limits his value in a trade as no team is going to want to absorb the addition to their salary cap in 2018-19.
Monroe is another experienced big man that knows how to score down low when his number is called, but more importantly he has always been an above-average rebounder and solid defender in the paint. Monroe has played on some below-average teams like the Suns, Bucks and Pistons, but has always found a way to get his numbers and impress opposing players, coaches and scouts. He recently has been asked to come off the bench which is a plus for any team that adds him, as they don't have to worry about ego or demands to be in the starting lineup. The bottom line is that when asked, he has stepped up and performed at a high level and he has a desire to get to the postseason and win as he gets older and into the twilight years of his career. He is a free agent at the end of the year, so there would be no long-term drawbacks to a buyout from the Suns and potentially adding him to the Rockets roster.
Here is an experienced big man that has won at the highest level, and has played for the Rockets biggest rival. As a member of the Golden State Warriors, Bogut not only proved to be a big man that can play in an up-tempo style, but he played effectively by altering and blocking shots, rebounding, and staying active on the defensive end. The fact that he played in Golden state only helps in the argument of why the Rockets should add him to their roster as he may not know the plays and terminology, but he definitely knows the strategy and tendencies of the team, coaching staff and players. The Lakers released Bogut a few weeks ago at the start of January, so he is out there and available and trying to decide what team he wants to play for. There are already rumors that the Rockets are in the mix and that he and Daryl Morey have spoken about the possibilities. Look for the Rockets to see what they can do at the deadline and then explore the possibility of adding Bogut over the final two and a half months of the regular season, The one draw back is that Bogut has turned the Rockets down in the past as he chose the Cavs over Houston in a similar situation 2 years ago, and that might not sit well with players and management.
The fact of the matter is, there are about 26 other teams that would love to be in the situation the Rockets are in. They would love to be title contenders looking to tweak their roster and give them a better shot of beating the Warriors and putting them over the top. Even if the red and white aren't able to add anybody up front and they finish out the year with the 15 guys that got them this far, they still have a legitimate shot to dethrone the champs and beat Golden State. At the end of the day, that's all you can ask for. Regardless, it should be fun to watch and interesting to keep an eye on as we head towards the trade deadline.
There's no denying that this year's World Series champs (LA Dodgers) have some serious firepower on their roster. And one of the ways they were able to assemble such a talented team involved players like Shohei Ohtani being willing to differ their money.
Just this week, there was some speculation that the Yankees could do something similar when restructuring Gerrit Cole's contract, that would allow them more flexibility in the present.
The Yankees ended up calling Cole's bluff about opting out, and no adjustment was made to the contract.
But this situation got us thinking, would the Astros consider a tactic like this to maximize the roster? At this point, it doesn't seem all that likely. Just last year, the team handed out a $95 million contract to Josh Hader, without any differed money.
The other factor that also has to come into play is the tax threshold. The organization would have to give the okay to go over it again in order to make a splash signing this offseason. Which unfortunately does not sound like the plan right now when listening to GM Dana Brown at the Winter Meetings.
Astros pitcher hires a new agent
Now that MLB free agency is in full swing, most of the attention moving forward will be focused on players like Alex Bregman, Pete Alonso, and Juan Soto.
But for Astros fans, there might be someone else to keep an eye on this offseason and next. Starting pitcher Hunter Brown quietly hired super agent Scott Boras recently.
With Brown still another season away from his first year of arbitration, he should be with the Astros for the foreseeable future.
However, the hiring of Boras does raise some interesting questions. Why make the move now? Certainly, Brown could use some more cash, as he's set to make less than a million in 2025.
Perhaps Brown wants to land some HEB commercials to fatten his wallet. And if Bregman does leave the team in free agency, a spot will open up for another player, in theory. And three of the players in the HEB ads are represented by Boras (Jose Altuve, Lance McCullers Jr. and Bregman).
Jeremy Pena has been stacking cash from Taquerias Arandas for several years now, maybe Brown would like an opportunity to do an endorsement similar to that.
I say all this half kidding, but Brown does look like the future ace of this staff, and I'm sure there are plenty of advertisers that would have interest in Hunter.
There is another element that could have initiated the hiring of Boras. Would Brown be willing to sign an extension early with the Astros similar to the deal the team made with Cristian Javier?
Their situations are actually pretty comparable, except Javier was one year further into his career (3 years of MLB service time) and eligible for arbitration before agreeing to the extension.
If Brown was heading into arbitration this offseason, it wouldn't be surprising at all for the Astros to be considering a long-term deal with him that buys up all his arbitration years. The 'Stros love these types of contract extensions. We've seen them do it with Bregman, the aforementioned Javier, and others.
One of the main differences though between Brown and Javier is their rookie year numbers. Brown only pitched 20.1 innings in his first season (2022). While Javier pitched 54.1 innings his rookie year. However, his rookie season was in 2020, so Javier completed a full year of service time despite the shortened season. Whereas Brown didn't get called up until September 2022.
Another difference is performance. Javier never posted an ERA over 3.55 in his first three seasons. As opposed to Brown, who had a disastrous year in 2023. He made 29 starts, recording an ERA over 5.
It wasn't until May of 2024 that Brown started using his two-seam fastball with great success and becoming one of the most dominant pitchers in the American League.
The Astros had a bigger sample size to judge Javier. However, if Brown has another quality season in 2025, Houston and Brown should definitely be having conversations about an extension. Especially with Framber Valdez being in the final year of his contract in 2025. Hunter could be the unquestioned ace one year from now.
Still, though, there are some concerns with handing out these early extensions. For example, if the Astros had it to do over again, would they still extend Javier?
After receiving his extension before the 2023 season, he went on to post the highest ERA of his career (4.56), and then blew out his elbow in May 2024.
And if we're going by Luis Garcia's recovery timeline from Tommy John surgery, we may not see Javier pitch at all in 2025.
So even with a sample size of three terrific seasons, the Javier extension looks like a miss with the benefit of hindsight. It will be interesting to see if that deal impacts Dana Brown's decision-making going forward.
Especially since Javier was Dana's first big contract extension as the Astros GM.
Be sure to watch the video as we discuss how the Astros can get the most out of their roster, the pros and cons of signing Hunter Brown early, and much more!
*Catch our weekly Stone Cold ‘Stros podcasts. Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and Charlie Pallilo discuss varied Astros topics. The post for the week generally goes up Monday afternoon. Find all via The SportsMap HOU YouTube channel or listen to episodes in their entirety at Apple, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.
_______________
Fans of Houston sports and Houston food can now score tickets to The Tailgate, CultureMap's all-out party devoted to everyone’s favorite way to get in the gameday spirit. The event, presented by Verizon, goes down from 6-9 pm November 11 at 8th Wonder. Tickets are $75 for VIP and $50 for General Admission. For a limited time, we’re giving you $10 off; use code SPORTSMAP at checkout. Get your tickets now!