MAKING A PITCH
John Granato: Controversy aside, here is a look at how the Astros bullpen will shape up
Aug 2, 2018, 8:03 am
Colin McHugh is one of the sure things in the pen. Collin McHugh/Facebook
I certainly don’t want to minimize the repercussions of the Roberto Osuna trade . We have had two straight days of non-stop calls on both sides of the issue. It’s the most calls we’ve had on any subject in quite a while. This article will not deal with the moral dilemma of trading for someone facing domestic abuse charges. The bottom line is that love it or hate it Osuna is an Astro. He’s a premier talent and now he’s Houston’s premier talent.
Make no mistake, it’s a heat check for the Astros. They’re finding out how much leeway they have with the fanbase. I’m sure they’re getting plenty of complaints but they’ll still fill the ballpark. I’m a huge fan of the team and not happy about the Osuna trade. I don’t want to root for a guy who’s facing a charge of assault against a woman but I’m not going to stop rooting for the team.
I loved last year’s Astros, maybe my favorite team ever. There was a youthful enthusiasm they brought every night that made sports fun again and unlike our other teams they played their best on the biggest stages and in the biggest moments.
Everyone did except the bullpen. It was an atrocity and despite the numbers this year that have the Astros bullpen as statistically one of baseball’s best, it needed a facelift, especially at the back end. The numbers against the better teams don’t lie.
They had to make a move. Maybe it’s not the move you wanted but it’s a move that had to be made. From a purely baseball standpoint it’s not a home run, it’s a grand slam. To get a 23-year old top-of-the-line closer with years left under your control for your 10th prospect and two guys that you didn’t want anyway is unheard of. If he didn’t have that baggage he wouldn’t have been on the trade market but he does and he’s here now.
Just think, this October you may not have to have your starters finish every big game. You may actually have a closer who can CLOSE and with the addition of Ryan Pressly you may be set up for another September and October run that could end in another parade.
Here’s what we’re looking as we head down the stretch and into the playoffs.
Sure things right now:
Hector Rondon
Collin McHugh
Tony Sipp
Yes that’s right, Tony Sipp. AJ is starting to put him into more high pressure situations and for good reason. He hasn’t given up an earned run in his last 10 outings and just one since May 7. That can be a deceiving stat for a reliever but it’s not for Sipp. He’s pitching well and deserves a shot to pitch when the game is on the line.
Rondon and McHugh are obviously on this list because of their numbers. McHugh should have been an all-star and Rondon has been solid if not great in the closer’s role. He’ll more than likely move into the setup role with Osuna’s arrival and a combination of Pressly, McHugh, Rondon and Osuna in the 7th, 8th and 9th will be formidable against any lineup.
Note: AJ Hinch has often said that he has no such slotted roles in his bullpen but that may have been more because he couldn’t count on anyone to fill those slots. With this new iteration of bullpen you may be seeing more slotted roles going forward.
Unknowns:
Roberto Osuna
Ryan Pressly
While we might not be excited about bringing Osuna into this locker room because of his issue, you have to be excited about his talent. Problem is he hasn’t pitched since May 6. That’s a long time ago. How long will it take for his command to return? Pinpoint accuracy is so important to every pitcher so it may take a while for him to get back to elite closer status.
With Pressly it’ll be important for AJ to get to know him quickly. How often can he use him? Is he comfortable coming in with runners on or does he pitch best starting an inning? What types of hitters does he pitch best against? He’s got a couple months to do it but there will be an adjustment period on both sides.
Where do we fit in?
Brad Peacock
Chris Devenski
Will Harris
Joe Smith
Smith is more than likely out. He hasn’t been here long enough to build up any good will and his performance hasn’t warranted any faith in his ability to perform on the big stage. No offense Joe. It’s a numbers thing.
But he’s not the only one that’ll have to go. In the postseason you’ll have four starters. Either McCullers or Morton will move to the pen depending on who’s hot. That’ll leave just six spots for true relievers. Right now you’d pick Rondon, McHugh, Sipp, Osuna, Pressly and…
Take your choice:
Brad Peacock?
Chris Devenski?
Will Harris?
They all have a special place in AJ’s heart. They all better pick up their game in these last two months if they want to have a place on the mound come October.
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If the Astros were going to win one series and lose the other on their six-game road trip out of the All-Star break, they got it right in taking two out of three games at Seattle then losing two out of three to lousy Oakland. Had they inverted those results, the Astros would not be alone atop the American League West starting this weekend’s series against the Dodgers at Minute Maid Park.
By the schedule the Astros’ sledding now gets tougher. The Dodgers are rolling toward their 11th National League West crown in 12 years, despite their pitching staff having been battered by injuries every bit as much as the Astros’. The Astros will face three rookie starters this weekend. National League Rookie of the Year candidate (non-Paul Skenes division) Gavin Stone goes Friday. Saturday it’s Justin Wrobleski making his fourth big league start, Sunday River Ryan makes his second. 325 million dollar addition Yoshinobu Yamamoto last pitched June 15. Tony Gonsolin is out for the year without throwing a pitch. Clayton Kershaw’s first pitch Thursday marks the first of his season. Tyler Glasnow’s Wednesday return from the Injured List means the Astros won’t face him this weekend.
Aside: Astros’ fan favorite Joe Kelly is back in the Dodgers’ bullpen. He was activated from the IL out of the break, so the opportunity to welcome him back to Minute Maid Park looms!
After the Dodgers, the Pirates hit town with Skenes slated to pitch Monday opposite Jake Bloss. Gulp. Hey, in one game, you never know. Skenes has been the most electric rookie pitcher since Dwight Gooden with the Mets in 1984.
Sleepless in Seattle
The Mariners’ unraveling has reached historic proportions. It’s not easy losing six straight matchups with the lowly Angels but the Mariners were down to the challenge and pulled it off. The M’s have stumble-bummed their way to a 9-20 record over their last 29 games. That’s actually a better winning percentage than the Astros’ had after staggering from the starting gate to a 7-19 mark. Like the Astros did, the Mariners can right their ship, though if they don’t add quality offense before Tuesday’s trade deadline it seems unlikely. Seattle has scored more than two runs in one of its last eight games, the only win among those eight when the Mariners got to Ronel Blanco and Seth Martinez Sunday to avoid an Astros’ sweep. Meanwhile, the Texas Rangers whipping up on the laughingstock Chicago White Sox this week has their World Series title defense very much alive and a threat to overtake both the Astros and Mariners.
The trade deadline is this Tuesday
Tick-tock toward Tuesday’s 5PM Central Time trade deadline. General Manager Dana Brown is on the clock. Let’s start with starting pitchers. Tarik Skubal! Garrett Crochet! Jack Flaherty! Any would be a fabulous addition. If Brown acquires one, he will have done phenomenal work cajoling the trade partner into thinking the Astros’ offer the best. Frankly it seems impossible. The Orioles are in the starting pitcher market. Their farm system runs laps around what the Astros have. Numerous other teams on the hunt for pitching have higher rated minor league talent. The Triple-A Sugar Land Space Cowboys are having a fabulous season, but until the Astros Thursday moved up soon to be 24-year-old Jacob Melton (who was batting just .248 with a .307 on-base percentage at Double-A Corpus Christi) there was not one non-pitcher of any consequence younger than 25 on the roster. Pedro Leon, Shay Whitcomb, Will Wagner, and include Joey Loperfido: it would be shocking if any of them can be the best player in an offer good enough to land one of the potential big trade fish. All four of them wouldn’t be enough to land a Skubal or Crochet.
On the hitter side, if the Blue Jays shop Vlad Jr. and/or the Rays take offers for Paredes, of course Brown better try. Either would be a sharp upgrade over Jon Singleton, and Guerrero can’t become a free agent until after next season, with Paredes under team control through 2027. Reality check time. Seattle’s offense is in dire straits. The Mariners have four prospects rated higher than any Astros’ prospect. If the Mariners didn’t make a winning offer over what the Astros proposed, Seattle GM Jerry Dipoto would look like a timid clown.
That said, there will be several second and third tier starters and relievers moved who would boost the Astros. If Spencer Arrighetti and Jake Bloss are both still in the Astros’ starting rotation after the deadline, Dana Brown will have failed. That said, the Astros could well stand pat and win the Mild, Mild West. They could also finish third.
Go for the gold!
With the Olympics underway, a medal podium-style ranking of the Astros’ greatest trade deadline acquisitions:
No medal but cannot be omitted: Randy Johnson. It was a brief fling with “The Big Unit” in 1998 but it was spectacular. It elevated Houston as a baseball city. In 11 regular season starts Johnson went 10-1 with a 1.28 earned run average. He threw shutouts in his first four Astrodome starts. He spiked attendance like no other player in franchise history. Even though the San Diego Padres beat Johnson twice (Johnson pitched fine, the Astros scored two runs total in the two games) and bounced the Astros in a National League Division Series, and prospects Freddy Garcia and Carlos Guillen included in the deal both went on to have excellent careers, it was a trade that in hindsight you make 100 times out of 100.
Bronze: Jeff Bagwell. Reliever Larry Andersen was outstanding in helping the Boston Red Sox win the AL East in 1990, but the BoSox got swept in the ALCS and Andersen left as a free agent. Bagwell has the greatest offensive resume in Astros’ history (I know, I know, postseason aside) and is quite arguably one of the 10 greatest first basemen of all-time.
Silver: Yordan Alvarez. He has longevity to prove but to this point in his career, while not the all-around player Bagwell was, Yordan is clearly the more destructive force in the batter’s box. Throw in his three monstrously significant home runs in the 2022 Astros’ title run, and his awesome 2023 postseason, and what could still lie ahead for him and the Gold could be his if we revisit this topic 10 years from now. Imagine the Dodgers if they hadn’t gifted Yordan to the Astros for Josh Fields.
Gold: Justin Verlander. Astros’ World Series championships pre-JV, zero. With him, two. Even though his World Series resume is terrible. The finishing piece to the Astros’ initial championship winner in 2017 with a 1.06 ERA in five starts ahead of winning the 2017 ALCS MVP, a second crown in 2022, two Cy Young Awards and a Cy runner-up. Interesting decision to make for the cap on his Hall of Fame plaque. Much more body of work with the Tigers but the championships and legend cemented with the Astros.
*Catch our weekly Stone Cold ‘Stros podcast. Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and I discuss varied Astros topics. The first post for the week generally goes up Monday afternoon (second part released Tuesday) via The SportsMap HOU YouTube channel or listen to episodes in their entirety at Apple, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.