BANKING ON WATSON
John Granato: Hoping Pro Football Focus is wrong about the Texans
Jul 12, 2018, 7:09 am
Pro Football Focus thinks Deshaun Watson is an average quarterback. Tim Warner/Getty Images
If it wasn’t bad enough watching the Texans muddle through another dismal season after Deshaun Watson went down, Pro Football Focus doesn’t think it will be much better this year - not if you look at their NFL roster rankings.
Of the 32 NFL teams, the Texans roster came in 31st. There is no way to spin that. It’s bad. It’s why Rick Smith is no longer working for the organization. There were way too many swings and misses draft after draft.
According to PFF the Texans have one exceptional player in DeAndre Hopkins, a couple just behind him in J.J. Watt and J.D. Clowney and three above average players in D.J. Reader, Zach Cunningham and Aaron Colvin. That’s it. The rest of the roster is a bunch of guys.
That’s where PFF and I disagree.
PFF gave Deshaun a grade of 75.1 which makes him an average NFL quarterback.
My undying love for Deshaun is well documented. I’m biased on this but by what measure can you say that Deshaun Watson was an average NFL quarterback last year? Certainly not by his play. When he got injured he was leading the league in touchdown passes and the Texans had the No. 1 scoring offense. His QB rating of 103 finished just ahead of Tom Brady, Carson Wentz and Jared Goff. How in the world is that average?
Maybe they’re penalizing Deshaun for being injured. That’s about the only explanation. That can’t be though because Aaron Rogers had an 84.4 PFF rating last year and he was injured too.
I’m not saying he’s Aaron Rogers but these ratings shouldn’t take into account your past. They’re based solely on last year’s performance and last year Deshaun was better than Rogers.
Rogers threw more passes and completed more with a better completion percentage but Deshaun threw for more yards, more yards per pass, more touchdowns, made more big plays and had a higher qb rating.
It doesn’t make sense.
But that’s about all I can disagree with. It’s no secret that the Texans have average to below average players everywhere else. It’s why I think they have been so bad on special teams for so long. If your starters aren’t that good how good can your special teams players be any good?
But 31st in the league is a lot lower than I would have thought the Texans roster would be. The only team worse is the Browns but they’re completely overhauling that roster and will be better this year.
The Jets have a better roster than the Texans? Really? The Colts? The Giants? Man.
Objectively looking at the Texans it’s hard to think that this team will win. The offensive line collectively is one of the worst units in the league. Outside of DeAndre Hopkins the receivers are average at best. The running backs are just guys.
Defensively, Kevin Johnson was PFF’s worst corner last year. J-Jo is another year older. Kareem Jackson has to move to safety. The inside linebackers are good but struggle some in pass coverage. We’ll see if Whitney Mercilus returns to All-Pro form. Clowney, J.J. and Reader are among the best when healthy but that’s a big if especially with JJ. It can be a great front 7 but, but, but.
There is one X-factor this season. Deshaun. Number 4 made everyone better last year. He took a crappy offense to the top of the league. Took the worst line in the league and made it serviceable. Took average playmakers and made them special and took Deandre Hopkins to elite status.
He couldn’t make the defense any better though. His 3-3 record as a starter was in large part due to a defense that couldn’t stop anyone late in games. Seattle and New England both drove right down the field to beat the Texans in the final minutes. The other factor was questionably conservative play calls that put the defense back on the field. Hopefully both the defense and the play caller learned some lessons last year.
But the fact of the matter is that with no first or second round picks the Texans could only marginally improve their roster. The offensive line picked up a couple of free agents but no one that moved the needle. The defense grabbed a nice free agent in Aaron Colvin and if Tyrann Mathieu plays like he did early in his career he will be a huge plus. Third round pick Justin Reid has to grow up in a hurry because they’re going to need him with Andre Hal sidelined with lymphoma.
The biggest additions though will be Watt and Whitney Mercilus. PFF gave JJ an 89.3 rating but that was all on past performance. He only played in five games last year with no sacks and 15 total tackles. How that rates so high I can’t tell you. We all know what J.J. can be though and he has to be if the Texans are going to move up from their present status as a bottom dweller.
Everywhere I look the Texans are thought to be a 6 to 9 win team, usually closer to the 6 than the 9. Every preseason preview begins and ends with Deshaun’s health. Everyone is waiting for J.J. to get back to doing J.J. stuff.
Call me an optimist or just plain stupid (many people have), I think they’re going to be the division champ and a scary playoff team.
I’m a homer. I’ll admit it. But I’m not going to dismiss what I saw from Deshaun Watson the past three years. He’s special and when you have that under center you’ve always got a chance to do special things.
Maybe Pro Football focus is right. Maybe their roster just isn’t good enough but the great players make everybody around them better including the head coach. Deshaun did that last year and will do it again this year.
Book it… but not with money. I don’t need that heat if they finish last.
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If the Astros were going to win one series and lose the other on their six-game road trip out of the All-Star break, they got it right in taking two out of three games at Seattle then losing two out of three to lousy Oakland. Had they inverted those results, the Astros would not be alone atop the American League West starting this weekend’s series against the Dodgers at Minute Maid Park.
By the schedule the Astros’ sledding now gets tougher. The Dodgers are rolling toward their 11th National League West crown in 12 years, despite their pitching staff having been battered by injuries every bit as much as the Astros’. The Astros will face three rookie starters this weekend. National League Rookie of the Year candidate (non-Paul Skenes division) Gavin Stone goes Friday. Saturday it’s Justin Wrobleski making his fourth big league start, Sunday River Ryan makes his second. 325 million dollar addition Yoshinobu Yamamoto last pitched June 15. Tony Gonsolin is out for the year without throwing a pitch. Clayton Kershaw’s first pitch Thursday marks the first of his season. Tyler Glasnow’s Wednesday return from the Injured List means the Astros won’t face him this weekend.
Aside: Astros’ fan favorite Joe Kelly is back in the Dodgers’ bullpen. He was activated from the IL out of the break, so the opportunity to welcome him back to Minute Maid Park looms!
After the Dodgers, the Pirates hit town with Skenes slated to pitch Monday opposite Jake Bloss. Gulp. Hey, in one game, you never know. Skenes has been the most electric rookie pitcher since Dwight Gooden with the Mets in 1984.
Sleepless in Seattle
The Mariners’ unraveling has reached historic proportions. It’s not easy losing six straight matchups with the lowly Angels but the Mariners were down to the challenge and pulled it off. The M’s have stumble-bummed their way to a 9-20 record over their last 29 games. That’s actually a better winning percentage than the Astros’ had after staggering from the starting gate to a 7-19 mark. Like the Astros did, the Mariners can right their ship, though if they don’t add quality offense before Tuesday’s trade deadline it seems unlikely. Seattle has scored more than two runs in one of its last eight games, the only win among those eight when the Mariners got to Ronel Blanco and Seth Martinez Sunday to avoid an Astros’ sweep. Meanwhile, the Texas Rangers whipping up on the laughingstock Chicago White Sox this week has their World Series title defense very much alive and a threat to overtake both the Astros and Mariners.
The trade deadline is this Tuesday
Tick-tock toward Tuesday’s 5PM Central Time trade deadline. General Manager Dana Brown is on the clock. Let’s start with starting pitchers. Tarik Skubal! Garrett Crochet! Jack Flaherty! Any would be a fabulous addition. If Brown acquires one, he will have done phenomenal work cajoling the trade partner into thinking the Astros’ offer the best. Frankly it seems impossible. The Orioles are in the starting pitcher market. Their farm system runs laps around what the Astros have. Numerous other teams on the hunt for pitching have higher rated minor league talent. The Triple-A Sugar Land Space Cowboys are having a fabulous season, but until the Astros Thursday moved up soon to be 24-year-old Jacob Melton (who was batting just .248 with a .307 on-base percentage at Double-A Corpus Christi) there was not one non-pitcher of any consequence younger than 25 on the roster. Pedro Leon, Shay Whitcomb, Will Wagner, and include Joey Loperfido: it would be shocking if any of them can be the best player in an offer good enough to land one of the potential big trade fish. All four of them wouldn’t be enough to land a Skubal or Crochet.
On the hitter side, if the Blue Jays shop Vlad Jr. and/or the Rays take offers for Paredes, of course Brown better try. Either would be a sharp upgrade over Jon Singleton, and Guerrero can’t become a free agent until after next season, with Paredes under team control through 2027. Reality check time. Seattle’s offense is in dire straits. The Mariners have four prospects rated higher than any Astros’ prospect. If the Mariners didn’t make a winning offer over what the Astros proposed, Seattle GM Jerry Dipoto would look like a timid clown.
That said, there will be several second and third tier starters and relievers moved who would boost the Astros. If Spencer Arrighetti and Jake Bloss are both still in the Astros’ starting rotation after the deadline, Dana Brown will have failed. That said, the Astros could well stand pat and win the Mild, Mild West. They could also finish third.
Go for the gold!
With the Olympics underway, a medal podium-style ranking of the Astros’ greatest trade deadline acquisitions:
No medal but cannot be omitted: Randy Johnson. It was a brief fling with “The Big Unit” in 1998 but it was spectacular. It elevated Houston as a baseball city. In 11 regular season starts Johnson went 10-1 with a 1.28 earned run average. He threw shutouts in his first four Astrodome starts. He spiked attendance like no other player in franchise history. Even though the San Diego Padres beat Johnson twice (Johnson pitched fine, the Astros scored two runs total in the two games) and bounced the Astros in a National League Division Series, and prospects Freddy Garcia and Carlos Guillen included in the deal both went on to have excellent careers, it was a trade that in hindsight you make 100 times out of 100.
Bronze: Jeff Bagwell. Reliever Larry Andersen was outstanding in helping the Boston Red Sox win the AL East in 1990, but the BoSox got swept in the ALCS and Andersen left as a free agent. Bagwell has the greatest offensive resume in Astros’ history (I know, I know, postseason aside) and is quite arguably one of the 10 greatest first basemen of all-time.
Silver: Yordan Alvarez. He has longevity to prove but to this point in his career, while not the all-around player Bagwell was, Yordan is clearly the more destructive force in the batter’s box. Throw in his three monstrously significant home runs in the 2022 Astros’ title run, and his awesome 2023 postseason, and what could still lie ahead for him and the Gold could be his if we revisit this topic 10 years from now. Imagine the Dodgers if they hadn’t gifted Yordan to the Astros for Josh Fields.
Gold: Justin Verlander. Astros’ World Series championships pre-JV, zero. With him, two. Even though his World Series resume is terrible. The finishing piece to the Astros’ initial championship winner in 2017 with a 1.06 ERA in five starts ahead of winning the 2017 ALCS MVP, a second crown in 2022, two Cy Young Awards and a Cy runner-up. Interesting decision to make for the cap on his Hall of Fame plaque. Much more body of work with the Tigers but the championships and legend cemented with the Astros.
*Catch our weekly Stone Cold ‘Stros podcast. Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and I discuss varied Astros topics. The first post for the week generally goes up Monday afternoon (second part released Tuesday) via The SportsMap HOU YouTube channel or listen to episodes in their entirety at Apple, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.