HIDDEN COST REPORT
Money over merit: Exploring Jose Abreu's true cost for the Houston Astros
May 29, 2024, 2:41 pm
This is a bad look. Composite Getty Image.
Since rejoining the Astros this week, Jose Abreu has gone 1-6 at the plate, boosting his batting average from an abysmal .099 to a horrid .105 while making a mess of playing first base. This was after going 0-7 at Triple A Sugar Land last week.
And the Astros have dropped both games in Seattle against the division-leading Mariners since Abreu’s been back.
You’ll notice that the Astros recalled Abreu while on the road – you think to avoid the embarrassment of fans boo’ing him at Minute Maid Park? Of course the Astros are aware of their fans' smoldering disgust with Abreu.
It’d be unfair to jeer Abreu, actually. He’s trying. He just can’t do it anymore. He’s washed. What do fans expect, Abreu to retire from baseball and tell the Astros they don’t have to pay the $30+ million still on his contract? Ain’t gonna happen. Contracts are guaranteed in baseball and even if Abreu would be OK with ripping up the deal, the players union would refuse to let the Astros off the hook for the money.
If you want to blame somebody for the Abreu disaster, point a finger at Astros owner Jim Crane for OK’ing the deal to sign him, point another finger at Crane-whisperer Jeff Bagwell for brokering the deal, and a pinky at general manager Dana Brown for supporting the idea of bringing Abreu back to the big leagues.
At least Brown appears to be an Abreu backer. Although he should think twice before making ridiculous comments about Abreu. Explaining why he thought Abreu was ready to face Major League pitching despite going 0-7 including three strikeouts and hitting into a double play, Brown said, with a straight face, “It’s not really about the hits. We want to make sure he’s getting quality at bats.”
Three strikeouts in seven at bats? Grounding into a double play? Quality at bats?
This is how they play baseball in the Bizarro World. It’s not really about hits? How about the final score of games? Do those matter? Because the Astros have lost both games since Abreu rejoined the team.
This is the same Dana Brown who said the Astros were sending Joey Loperfido back to the minors because he strikes out too much. Checking the back of Loperfido’s baseball card (Brown’s favorite hobby), the rookie batted .333 with 13 hits in 39 at bats during his stay with the Astros. Abreu has eight hits in 77 at bats.
Wait I forgot, it’s not really about the hits.
So what is really about? It’s the money. The Astros signed Abreu to a $58.5 million contract before last season. The contract has all this season plus next season on the books.
Playing someone just because you’re paying him stupid money is an idiotic reason. Jose Abreu was awful last season, and this year he’s taking awful to new lows. He is hurting the team. Everybody can see it. Well, almost everybody.
Fans sure see it. If they can’t boo Abreu at Minute Maid Park this week, they can unload on X (formerly Twitter). Here are some of the kinder comments.
“Please just end the Jose Abreu experiment.”
“You have to get Jose Abreu off this team.”
“This team deserves every loss it gets as long as it continues to play Jose Abreu at first base.”
“He is straight up cancer to the team.”
So what is the solution? The team said it struggled deciding what to do to make room for Abreu rejoining the team. They decided on sending Loperfido back to the minors.
The right answer what to do about Abreu – then and now - is staring them in the face and they refuse to accept it.
Suck it up and pay Abreu to stay away.
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Pharrell Williams is ringing in my ears. Why? Because I’m happy of course (2013 music reference)! Less than one week to spring training opening for the Astros in West Palm Beach. The pitchers and catchers are required to report a few days before the rest. A number of guys among the rest will arrive early, but let’s focus on some pitcher/catcher issues. Catchers first.
We know Yainer Diaz is the primary starter, with Victor Caratini a solid complement in the final year of his two-year contract. Diaz had a fine season overall in his first as the primary backstop, but he has a couple of clear areas that need improvement if stardom is to be on his horizon. His pitch-framing metrics were poor. Maybe it’s as simple as more experience under the belt improving them. At the plate, Yainer brings major value for what he does when doing it as a catcher. Still, to be a bonafide great offensive catcher, Diaz needs to rediscover more of the home run power he displayed as a rookie. In 2023 Diaz smashed 23 home runs in 355 at bats. In 2024 he had 230 more at bats, and hit seven fewer home runs. He had a 30-game midseason homer drought (immediately after going deep in four consecutive games), and then went the final 31 games of the season (29 plus the two playoff losses) without clearing a fence. Diaz did bat .309 over those 61 games so it’s not as if he turned into Martin Maldonado, but you want more sock from a guy batting fourth or fifth in the lineup. Diaz’s slugging percentage tumbled from .531 to .448. Among catchers overall, 16 homers and the .766 OPS he posted in 2024 is fine, but that is not a great offensive player overall. The other area where Yainer needs a step up is plate discipline. With his 585 at bats last year he walked only a pitiful 24 times. As a result, despite his excellent .299 batting average Diaz’s on-base percentage was just .325. Jon Singleton posted a .321 OBP while batting .234.
Caratini is a solid pro whose switch-hitting adds flexibility. He was sensational as a pinch-hitter albeit in just 19 at bats (8-19, .421). Manager Joe Espada has some playing time juggling to do. Free agent signee Christian Walker will play almost every day at first base when healthy. Diaz or Caratini getting starts there will be very limited. Yordan Alvarez targeted for fewer starts in left field gobbles up more designated hitter games. However Jose Altuve winds up splitting his defensive time between second base and left field, closing in on his 35th birthday in May, using him at DH about once per week would make sense.
On the mound, barring injury the starting rotation is set. Off of their 2024 performances Framber Valdez, Hunter Brown, and Ronel Blanco are as solid a one-two-three punch as there is in the American League. Only unanimously-voted American League Cy Young Award winner Tarik Skubal posted a better qualifying earned run average (2.39) than Blanco’s 2.80 and Valdez’s 2.91. After tweaking his arsenal following an atrocious opening seven-start stretch to his season, Brown posted a 2.46 ERA the rest of the way. Framber may have a couple hundred million dollars riding on his 2025 performance as barring an extension he heads toward free agency. Will Brown and Blanco’s performance hold up after each set professional career highs in innings pitched? The fourth rotation spot initially goes to Spencer Arrighetti, who showed much promise pitching to a 3.18 ERA after the All-Star break. Kyle Tucker trade acquisition Hayden Wesneski has first dibs on the fifth spot. The Cy-Fair high school grad and Sam Houston State product flashes some solid stuff, but absolutely must do a better job keeping his pitches in the ballpark. In 190 big league innings pitched Wesneski has been hammered for 35 home runs. In 2024 he showed so improvement in that area yielding 12 dingers in 67 2/3 innings.
The two sure things so far as bullpen roles are concerned are Josh Hader and Bryan Abreu. Hader’s seasons in one word from 2020-2024: Meh, stupendous, atrocious, phenomenal, mediocre. The odd years have been the fabulous ones. Abreu moves up the totem pole with the salary dump (eight and a half of 14 million anyway) trade of Ryan Pressly. After Hader and Abreu most tickets are punched. Tayler Scott, Kaleb Ort, Forrest Whitley, and Bryan King all figure to have spots. The 32-year-old Scott faded over the last two months after having blown away anything he’d done previously in MLB. The 33-year-old Ort also way outpitched his prior big league resume. Former mega-prospect Whitley is out of minor league options, and opportunity knocks. King appears the only definitely makes the club lefty reliever.
Spring training doors open next week. Join Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and me for the Stone Cold ‘Stros podcast which drops each Monday afternoon, with an additional episode now on Thursday. Click here to catch!
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