The Bills would be elated to see Baker Mayfield still on the board at pick No. 12. Brett Deering/Getty Images
Now that all the big moves of free agency have taken place, it's time to take a look at how the first round of the draft may play out. I'm probably one of the few people that don't have a projected trade in the Top 10. That's because I think the Broncos stay put and take their franchise QB at pick No. 5. My mock draft is a bit different from some the national guys like Mel Kiper Jr. and NFL.com's Lance Zierlein. And I certainly don't have their resume, but I do have the luxury of talking football with guys like Lance, and have co-hosted draft shows in the Houston market the last few years. If you want to see how Lance has the first round shaking out compared to mine, you can read his mock draft here. Below is my first mock, and I'll continue to update it every Thursday up until draft day.
1. Cleveland Browns- USC QB Sam Darnold
The Browns finally get their franchise QB.
2. New York Giants- NCST DE Bradley Chubb
The Giants find a replacement for JPP.
3. New York Jets- UCLA QB Josh Rosen
The Jets grab their QB.
4. Cleveland Browns- Penn St. RB Saquon Barkley
Cleveland finally has some talent on offense, and they get the best player and best QB in the draft.
5. Denver Broncos- Wyoming QB Josh Allen
Many have the Broncos trading out here, but I think they stand pat and take their future QB.
6. Indianapolis Colts- Virginia Tech LB Tremaine Edmonds
The Colts add an incredible playmaker to their defense.
7. Tampa Bay Buccaneers- Ohio St. CB Denzel Ward
The Bucs get the best corner in the draft.
8. Chicago Bears- Notre Dame OG Quenton Nelson
The Bears get maybe the best player in the draft and protect their young QB.
9. San Francisco 49ers- UTSA DE Marcus Davenport
The 49ers need some pass rush and they get it with Davenport.
10. Oakland Raiders- Alabama DB Minkah Fitzpatrick
The Raiders take the best player available and get some secondary help.
11. Miami Dolphins- Washington DT Vita Vea
The Dolphins replace Ndamukong Suh with Vita Vea and don't skip a beat.
12. Buffalo Bills- Oklahoma QB Baker Mayfield
The Bills don't even have to trade up into the Top 10 to get their QB.
13. Washington Redskins- Georgia LB Roquan Smith
Washington needs a physical presence at LB.
14. Green Bay Packers- Louisville CB Jaire Alexander
The Packers go back to the well and select another corner in the first round.
15. Arizona Cardinals- Florida State Safety Derwin James
They get some help in the secondary after the departure on Tyrann Mathieu
16. Baltimore Ravens- Alabama WR Calvin Ridley
Ozzie Newsome adds the best receiver in the draft to help his veteran QB. He'll be a nice pairing with possession WR Michael Crabtree.
17. Los Angeles Chargers- Alabama DT Da'Ron Payne
Payne falls right into the Chargers' lap.
18. Seattle Seahawks- Iowa CB Josh Jackson
Pete Carroll and John Schneider get their replacement for Richard Sherman.
19. Dallas Cowboys- Alabama LB Rashaan Evans
The Cowboys fall apart when Sean Lee is out, and he's always injured. Evans will fit in nicely.
20. Detroit Lions- Texas OT/OG Connor Williams
The Lions get some help on their offensive line. Williams can play tackle and guard.
21. Cincinnati Bengals - UTEP OG Will Hernandez
The Bengals line was awful last year.
22. Buffalo Bills- UCF CB Mike Hughes
Hughes should step in and start right away.
23. New England Patriots- UCLA OT Kolton Miller
The Pats need a LT to replace Nate Solder.
24. Carolina Panthers- Boston College DE Harold Landry
Julius Peppers can't play forever.
25. Tennessee Titans- LSU DE Arden Key
The Titans need pass rush and they address it with Key.
26. Atlanta Falcons- Florida DT Taven Bryan
Dontari Poe left in free agency so the Falcons add a DT.
27. New Orleans Saints- Iowa OC James Daniels
The Saints grab an offensive lineman in the first round for the second straight year.
28. Pittsburgh Steelers- Wake Forest S Jessie Bates
The Steelers still need help in the secondary and they add a playmaker that has range and can cover the slot.
29. Jacksonville Jaguars- Michigan DT Maurice Hurst
Calais Campbell is getting old, so the Jags add some depth on the defensive line.
30. Minnesota Vikings- Georgia OG Isaiah Wynn
The Vikings spent a ton of money on Kirk Cousins, so they add some help on the line.
31. New England Patriots- LSU CB Donte Jackson
The Patriots lost Malcolm Butler and can't stop anybody on defense.
32. Philadelphia Eagles- Boise St. LB Leighton Vander Esch
The Super Bowl champs add to their already stout defense.
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The Houston Astros have looked like one of baseball’s most dangerous teams in recent weeks, riding a hot streak fueled by dominant starting pitching and a red-hot offense that’s erupted for double-digit runs in four of their last eight games. But behind the current success, there are fair questions about whether this pace is truly sustainable as the grind of the season continues.
Yes, the Astros are winning — and winning big — but context matters. Many of their recent victories have come against struggling clubs like the White Sox and Athletics. Even matchups against the Twins and Guardians, while respectable, don’t exactly represent championship-caliber tests. That soft stretch of the schedule has certainly helped Houston pad its win column, but it may not be the best predictor of long-term performance. Houston will be tested in the upcoming series against the Phillies and Cubs.
On the pitching side, the numbers have been impressive, but how repeatable is it? With Lance McCullers Jr. sidelined for at least a couple of weeks, the Astros are relying on a patchwork rotation that includes unproven arms like Colton Gordon, Ryan Gusto, and Brandon Walter. While each has shown flashes, asking them to shoulder the load deep into the summer may be a tall order.
Offensively, Houston is firing on all cylinders. But scoring 10 or more runs every other game simply isn’t sustainable over a 162-game season. Regression is inevitable; the question is how the team responds when the bats cool down or the bullpen is asked to carry more weight.
Amid all this, rookie third baseman Cam Smith continues to shine. Just a few months into his major league career, Smith is producing at a level that suggests he’s not just a key piece of the future — he’s already one of the team’s most valuable players. His batting average sits just a point behind Jose Altuve’s, and his OPS is even higher. If the Astros were forced to choose two players to build around long-term, factoring in youth and contract status, the logical duo might be Smith and breakout pitcher Hunter Brown.
So what about the big picture? Is this team a true World Series contender?
Oddsmakers currently have Houston with the seventh-best odds to win it all, and only the Yankees and Tigers rank higher among American League teams. The core is still there, the experience is undeniable, and if the pitching continues to hold — especially with the anticipated return of Spencer Arrighetti and a healthy McCullers — the Astros have every reason to believe they’ll be in the mix deep into October.
But that’s a big “if.” The ceiling is still high, and with Cam Smith emerging as a star in real time, this team might just have another gear. Whether they can reach it when the competition stiffens, that remains to be seen.
There's so much more to cover! Don't miss the video below as we examine the topics above and much, much more!
The MLB season is finally upon us! Join Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and Charlie Pallilo for the Stone Cold ‘Stros podcast which drops each Monday afternoon, with an additional episode now on Thursday.
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