Draft Day
Joshua Jordan Mock 3.0: Draft plan for the Saints and Cowboys
Apr 20, 2018, 1:43 pm
Can the Saints put together back-to-back elite drafts? David Grunfeld/Nola.Com
My mock is a bit different from some the national guys like Mel Kiper Jr. and NFL.com's Lance Zierlein. And I certainly don't have their resume, but I do have the luxury of talking football with guys like Lance, and have co-hosted draft shows in the Houston market the last few years. If you want to see how Lance has the first round shaking out compared to mine, you can read his mock draft here. This week, I'm going to highlight the Saints and Cowboys selections and team needs. No, I'm not a Saints or Cowboys fan, but the Texans don't have a pick until the 3rd round, and I know we have some New Orleans and Dallas fans living among us.
1. Cleveland Browns- USC QB Sam Darnold
The Browns finally get their franchise QB. I'm not buying the Josh Allen rumors yet.
2. New York Giants- NCST DE Bradley Chubb
The Giants find a replacement for JPP.
3. New York Jets- Wyoming QB Josh Allen
The Jets grab their QB, and I think they pass on Rosen. Allen has insane upside, so I think he's the pick.
4. Cleveland Browns- Penn St. RB Saquon Barkley
Cleveland selects the best player and best QB in the draft.
5. Denver Broncos- Oklahoma QB Baker Mayfield
Many have the Broncos trading out here, but I think they stand pat and take their future QB.
6. Indianapolis Colts- Virginia Tech LB Tremaine Edmonds
The Colts add an incredible playmaker to their defense.
7. Tampa Bay Buccaneers- Ohio St. CB Denzel Ward
The Bucs get the best corner in the draft.
8. Chicago Bears- Notre Dame OG Quenton Nelson
The Bears get one of the best players in the draft and protect their young QB.
9. San Francisco 49ers- Georgia LB Roquan Smith
This week, I'm going with Lance's advice and moving Roquan Smith into my Top 10. If you missed Lance Zierlein shaming me last week, you can check it out here.
10. TRADE--------- Buffalo Bills via Raiders- UCLA QB Josh Rosen
The Bills trade with the Raiders to jump in front of Miami and grab their QB. Adam Gase and the Dolphins are rumored to be interested in Rosen, so the Bills make their move.
11. Miami Dolphins- UTSA DE Marcus Davenport
The Dolphins add a pass rusher and have no other choice than to roll with Tannehill another year.
12. TRADE--------- Oakland Raiders via Bills- Washington DT Vita Vea
The Raiders get their guy and collect some picks in the process.
13. Washington Redskins- Alabama DB Minkah Fitzpatrick
Washington gets a steal and adds to the secondary.
14. Green Bay Packers- Florida State S Derwin James
The Packers shock the world and take a safety in the first round.
15. Arizona Cardinals- Notre Dame OT Mike McGlinchey
The Cardinals upgrade their putrid offensive line.
16. Baltimore Ravens- Alabama WR Calvin Ridley
Ozzie Newsome adds the best receiver in the draft to help his veteran QB. He'll be a nice pairing with possession WR Michael Crabtree.
17. Los Angeles Chargers- Alabama DT Da'Ron Payne
The Chargers bolster their defense.
18. Seattle Seahawks- Iowa CB Josh Jackson
Pete Carroll and John Schneider get their replacement for Richard Sherman. Jackson has size and terrific ball skills. He has Seahawk written all over him.
19. Dallas Cowboys- SMU WR Courtland Sutton
The Cowboys run up to the podium and select Sutton to replace Dez Bryant. Courtland Sutton has the potential to be a player similar to Brandon Marshall, if things go well.
I previously had Dallas taking a linebacker or defensive tackle, but receiver is so thin in this draft, and they have to replace Dez. The Cowboys traded up to draft Bryant in 2010, and they may do the same thing this year. Calvin Ridley ending up in Dallas would not surprise me.
If the Cowboys take a defensive player in the first round, I think a linebacker or defensive tackle is most likely. This defense is not the same when Sean Lee is out, and he has been injured a lot over his career. Alabama LB Rashaan Evans or Boise St. LB Leighton Vander Esch would make a lot of sense here. Florida DT Taven Bryan could be in play here as well.
20. Detroit Lions- Boston College DE Harold Landry
The Lions get some help on their defensive line. Ziggy Ansah is playing on the franchise tag.
21. Cincinnati Bengals - Florida DT Taven Bryan
The Bengals get good value with Bryan.
22. TRADE---------Oakland Raiders via Bills- Louisville CB Jaire Alexander
The Raiders take the extra pick from the Bills and get some much-needed help at corner.
23. New England Patriots- UCF CB Mike Hughes
The Pats replace Malcolm Butler at CB.
24. Carolina Panthers- UCLA OT Kolton Miller
The Panthers find some protection for Cam Newton.
25. Tennessee Titans- Alabama LB Rashaan Evans
Tennessee gets a great player, and they fill a big need at linebacker.
26. Atlanta Falcons- Michigan DT Maurice Hurst
Dontari Poe left in free agency, so the Falcons add a DT.
27. New Orleans Saints- Boise St. LB Leighton Vander Esch
The Saints add a playmaker on the second level. I think New Orleans has to keep upgrading the defense, because they have a real shot at a championship in 2018. Give Brees one more year to win it all. He already has plenty of weapons to do it. I would love to take a pass rusher here, but the Saints shouldn't reach. Vander Esch is a playmaker, just take him. Sean Payton is always tempted to take an offensive player in every round, and it worked out with the Alvin Kamara pick in the 3rd round last year. But the Saints have a great o-line and terrific skill players, so now's the time to go all-in and invest in the defense.
They may look for a receiver to complement Michael Thomas, because it looks like Willie Snead could end up in Baltimore. The problem with 1st round WRs is, they typically don't contribute much in their rookie year, and this might be the last great season we see from Drew Brees. If I'm drafting for New Orleans, I'm going with the same approach as the Rams and Eagles. Use all of your capital to try to win it all this year.
Finally, this is a great TE group, so they may go that route in round one. Once again, you don't see many rookie TEs make a big contribution in their first season. Rookie linebackers however, are very often plug-and-play guys.
28. Pittsburgh Steelers- Alabama S Ronnie Harrison
He just feels like a Steeler.
29. Jacksonville Jaguars- Louisville QB Lamar Jackson
Blake Bortles will have competition.
30. Minnesota Vikings- Georgia OG Isaiah Wynn
The Vikings spent a ton of money on Kirk Cousins, so they add some help on the line to protect him.
31. New England Patriots- Texas OL Connor Williams
Belichick isn't afraid to draft Longhorns, and Williams can move to guard if he can't hang at tackle.
32. Philadelphia Eagles- South Carolina TE Hayden Hurst
The Super Bowl champs add another toy for Carson Wentz.
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So where does one turn now in Houston for mediocre, overpriced salsa? I kid, I kid. While wondering if Breggy Baked Beans are on the horizon. Congrats to Alex Bregman and agent Scott Boras for landing an on its face outlandish three-year 120-million dollar contract with the Boston Red Sox. With deferred money part of the deal the contract will be valuated in the neighborhood of “only” three years 90 million. Would Bregman have taken that from the Astros if offered? The Astros’ six-year 156-million dollar proposal was 26 mil per season. Bregman has the right to opt out after each of the first two seasons of his BoSox deal. If his decline (while still a very good player) of the last two seasons continues, or even if he holds steady, there is near zero chance of Bregman opting out unless he hates life in New England. At the end of the three years, will Bregman be able to land a three-year 66 million-dollar deal when he’s about to turn 34 years old? That plus the 90 mil with deferrals accounted for in his new deal would total 156 million. Massachusetts taxes personal income of just over a million dollars and upward at a nine percent rate. Playing half his games in the Bay State, Bregman will pay Massachusetts tax on half his salary.
Reminders...
Bregman obviously had an excellent Astros’ career, among non-pitchers he is top 10 all-time, but the excellence was frontloaded. Over Bregman’s first three big seasons he compiled a .289 batting average and .924 OPS. Elite numbers. Over the five seasons since: .261 and .795. Good, nothing legendary. After his monster MVP runner-up 2019 season (stats aided by the juiced balls of that season) Bregman was on a strong early Hall of Fame track. Now not so much, without some offensive resurgence. Fenway Park should suit Bregman well. He’ll bang singles and doubles off of the Green Monster, though the much higher than Crawford Boxes wall will not goose his home run numbers. In his time with the Astros Bregman mashed at Fenway with a .375 batting average and 1.240 OPS. That’s in a statistically not very significant 98 regular season plate appearances.
It is myth that Bregman in the postseason was some relentless hitting machine. He posted phenomenal numbers over seven Division Series batting .333 with an OPS over 1.000. Over 68 American League Championship Series and World Series games: batting average .196, OPS sub-.700.
For his career, Bregman’s worst month of performance by far has been April (plus any days in March, .737 OPS). In 2024 Bregman was baseball garbage into mid-May. Should a typical slow start happen again, we’ll see what the Fenway faithful patience level is. By far, Bregman’s best batting month has been August (.992 OPS). As it works out, both Astros-Red Sox series are in August this year. First in Boston August 1-3 then in Houston August 11-13.
Who's on third?
Over the last two seasons combined, new Astros’ third baseman Isaac Paredes has been as good offensively as Bregman. That includes Paredes pretty much stinking for two months in Chicago after being dealt from the Rays to the Cubs. Paredes, who turns 26 years old on Tuesday, was an AL All-Star last season. Bregman, who turns 31 March 30, was last an All-Star in 2019. The defensive drop-off from Bregman to Paredes is a fairly steep one.
There is no question that Bregman’s official departure weakens the Astros via a domino effect. Had Bregman wound up staying here, Paredes would have shifted to second base with Jose Altuve primarily in left field. Now, 600-plus plate appearances that Bregman would have taken project to be divided among Mauricio Dubon, Ben Gamel, Zach Dezenzo, and others. That projects as a substantial offensive downgrade. The lineup net result of the Astros’ offseason is negative. Christian Walker and Paredes joining the infield in lieu of Jon Singleton and Bregman is fine. Kyle Tucker out, hodge-podge in in the outfield, oh boy.
Alex Bregman is an unquestioned gamer, leader, and would seem to have the temperament to take well to the more intense baseball environment of Boston relative to that in Houston. Yankee fans should reeeeally love him now!
New beginnings
Considering baseball wasn’t invented until more than a century later, the poet Alexander Pope did not have baseball in mind when in 1732 he wrote “Hope springs eternal (in the human breast).” It works though. Other than the Chicago White Sox and Colorado Rockies, Major League teams have convened in Florida or Arizona thinking if things break right this could be their year! I’d probably put the Miami Marlins in with the ChiSox and Rockies. Many Astros’ fans are strongly disgruntled over the departures of Bregman and Kyle Tucker. This team still has “gruntlement” potential. The batting order appears Morganna-level (Google as necessary) top heavy, but one through five stacks well versus most other lineups. In the American League only the Mariners, Yankees, and maybe Royals have starting pitching rotations that should rate above the Astros’ rotation. Let the countdown to Opening Day begin!
Spring training is up and running. Join Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and me for the Stone Cold ‘Stros podcast which drops each Monday afternoon, with an additional episode now on Thursday. Click here to catch!
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