Falcon Points

Justify's failed drug test casts light on a bigger problem in gambling

Justify's failed drug test casts light on a bigger problem in gambling
Santaanita.com

In 2018, Justify won horse racing's Triple Crown, sweeping the Kentucky Derby, Preakness and Belmont Stakes. It was the second time a horse had accomplished the feat since 2015. Before that, the last winner was in 1978. It is one of the most difficult accomplishments in sports.

The horses that have won it are instantly enshrined in history and compared to the all-time greats, like Secretariat and Seattle Slew. When American Pharoah won in 2015, that was indeed the case. He would go on to win the Breeders' Cup Classic, becoming the first horse to win the Triple Crown and the Classic. It was an amazing year, and he was truly a brilliant race horse who captivated fans around the country.

When Justify won just three years later, it did not feel the same. He beat a very suspect group of three year olds, and was not impressive doing it. And then he retired as if his connections were afraid to see him lose against older horses and taint his legacy. No one compared him to any of the all time greats. It simply felt weird.

Now it makes sense

As the memory of Justify was slipping into history, a bombshell broke on Wednesday. Joe Drape of the New York Times dropped an in depth piece on the horse. Justify failed a drug test after the Santa Anita Derby. He should have been disqualified from his win in the race, and would not have even been in the Triple Crown. But the ruling was put off, kept under wraps, and the horse was allowed to race. After he won the Triple Crown, the board lessened the penalty for use of the particular drug he was caught with, effectively changing the rules to avoid a bad look.

Then it was somehow kept under wraps for two years.

Bad looks all around

As a longtime fan and supporter of the sport, stories like this are beyond frustrating, and goes to a deeper problem: Inconsistent rules. Each state has its own set of rules, and they are not all enforced consistently. When Maximum Security was disqualified from the Kentucky Derby, it was a controversy of the first order. Whether or not it was the right call varies from state to state, and even track to track. Stewards make those calls, and they are subjective. What is enforced in one place is not in another. Not everyone plays by the same standards.

Why Justify?

There is no reason to doubt Drape's reporting. He is one of the best in the business, especially when it comes to the news of the sport, and his story is well worth your time. So the real question is why?

The California Horse Racing Board took almost a month to confirm the results, ostensibly because they wanted to be sure. But that put them up against the Derby, and a DQ at that point would have been problematic. There is nothing wrong in being sure and getting the ruling right. But then once the horse wins the Triple Crown, imagine the outrage had it gone public.

There were three real problems; the lack of transparency, changing the rules and potential conflict of interest. Some of the board members are horse owners; the chairman owns horses raced by Justify's high profile trainer, Bob Baffert.

The board may have very well been, er, justified in all of its moves. But these three issues make it a very bad look.

The ruling that it was accidental, then, is easy to question. Baffert has had a ton of success and does not need to cheat, but he is not the only one in the barn or with contact to the horses. So it is possible the ruling was the right thing, but the way it happened is simply unacceptable. That the rules were changed after the Triple Crown makes it look even worse.

Black eyes? 

Those calling it yet another black eye on a sport that has had its share this year - the deaths at Santa Anita and the Derby itself - are merely scratching the surface. The sport has no eyes left. They have been beaten so hard it doesn't begin to tell the story. I have seen it all over the years; fixed races, horses being held back, inconsistent rulings, high profile cheating trainers. There are more good people than bad in racing, as there is in all of life. But it's always the bad that get the attention and ruin it for everyone else. Were these bad people? No. But when you try to hide something like this, there is no way to spin it into a positive.

The biggest issue - players have no rights

Lost in all this is the person who bets. Those of us who bet against Justify have no recourse. As sports betting becomes legal everywhere, these are issues that will impact more than horse racing. We already see it in boxing and MMA; you bet on a fight, lose and then a few days later whoever won failed a drug test and is disqualified. What if you bet on the Saints to cover Monday night, and two days after Deshaun Watson is suspended for PEDs and should have never played? While that is extreme - you made your decision based on the fact that he was playing - the player has no voice.

Horse racing should be more cognizant of that than any sport. Without betting, it does not exist. With sports betting coming to more states, horseplayers will gravitate away, especially as controversies like this keep happening. It is a sport that has been filled with controversy with years. Horse racing is where steroids started. Everyone in the sport should be aware of that.

There aren't a lot of us broken down horseplayers left. Decisions like this make it harder to keep trusting that the races we are betting on are honest.

The final analysis

Justify's breeding rights were sold for $60 million. As for his legacy? Most considered him the worst Triple Crown winner in history before. This won't do anything but reinforce that, but the breeding money spends just the same. Drape's story doesn't really change anything in the grand scheme. It simply casts light on a problem that needs to be dealt with whenever gambling and people's investments are involved: Transparency. Honestly. Consistency.

I won't hold my breath.

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Astros' young guns are making an impact! Composite Getty Image.

The Houston Astros walked out of Phoenix with a three-game sweep of the Diamondbacks, but the biggest win of the series might not have been in the standings, it could’ve been the emergence of their latest young spark plug.

Once again, the pitching carried the load. Brandon Walter continued his breakout season with another strong showing, and right now, he looks like Houston’s third starter if the playoffs began today. Behind him, Ryan Gusto and Colton Gordon have quietly helped stabilize a rotation ravaged by injuries. All three own ERAs under 4.5, a luxury the Astros couldn’t have anticipated heading into the year. Another thing they couldn't have anticipated was Lance McCullers' ERA this season being almost seven.

Walter’s rise comes at the same time the McCullers situation grows murkier. After starting the season late, he’s on the injured list again, this time with a blister on his pitching hand. Though the issue isn’t related to his arm, the “vibes” simply haven't been there. He’s struggled in four of his last five starts, and one wonders whether a "phantom" IL stint might be in his future, especially with Cristian Javier and Spencer Arrighetti progressing in rehab assignments. The roster squeeze is coming, and McCullers might not make the cut.

Crushing dingers!

Offensively, the conversation begins and ends with Brice Matthews. The first-round pick has quickly shifted from injury fill-in to potential staple, nearly winning the series by himself with three home runs across the first two games. His athleticism has popped in the field, and while contact concerns remain, the power and energy are real. Matthews is the only prospect of his pedigree ready to contribute, so the club made a wise decision to take a shot on upside, and Matthews delivered. That's why we were so emphatic about the Astros elevating Matthews. Get him in the lineup as a DH if you have to, whatever it takes, this offense needs pop. Then lo and behold, not only does he give the offense a lift, his defense also helped seal a win against Arizona.

Veteran slugger Christian Walker might be heating up too, posting a .348 average with three home runs and an .895 OPS in July. That’s a promising development, especially in a month when the Astros have flipped their typical formula. The pitching has been average — 18th in ERA, 18th in WHIP, 21st in opponent batting average — but the offense has been elite: top-five in slugging, OPS, and runs scored.

Injury bug

Still, questions persist. Chief among them is the health of Yordan Alvarez. His recent comments about his hand injury — specifically, his uncertainty and acknowledgement that rest hasn’t helped — were troubling. If surgery isn’t an option and time off isn’t working, what is the long-term solution? At this point, fans are right to worry about whether Alvarez will ever fully return to the dominant form he once showed.

Trade deadline

With the trade deadline one week away, general manager Dana Brown has to weigh all of this. The pitching could soon be bolstered by returns from the IL. But the offense, especially with no clear return dates for Alvarez, Jeremy Peña, Jake Meyers, and Isaac Paredes, might need immediate help. Despite the sweep, Houston scored just three and four runs in the final two games of the Diamondbacks series. If they’re serious about contending for a championship, another bat may be required. They'll see much better pitching in the postseason.

If the Astros do decide to add an arm, a power right-handed reliever could make sense. With Bryan Abreu the only truly dominant righty in the bullpen, a little late-inning muscle wouldn’t hurt.

Bottom line: the Astros are winning, and they're doing it in multiple ways. But with health concerns piling up and playoff positioning tightening, there’s still plenty of work ahead. Fortunately for Houston, they may have just found another foundational piece in the most unexpected place, a rookie who’s already changing the conversation.

There's so much more to get to! Don't miss the video below as we examine the topics above and much, much more!

The MLB season is finally upon us! Join Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and Charlie Pallilo for the Stone Cold ‘Stros podcast which drops each Monday afternoon, with an additional episode now on Thursday.

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