Falcon Points

Justify's failed drug test casts light on a bigger problem in gambling

Justify's failed drug test casts light on a bigger problem in gambling
Santaanita.com

In 2018, Justify won horse racing's Triple Crown, sweeping the Kentucky Derby, Preakness and Belmont Stakes. It was the second time a horse had accomplished the feat since 2015. Before that, the last winner was in 1978. It is one of the most difficult accomplishments in sports.

The horses that have won it are instantly enshrined in history and compared to the all-time greats, like Secretariat and Seattle Slew. When American Pharoah won in 2015, that was indeed the case. He would go on to win the Breeders' Cup Classic, becoming the first horse to win the Triple Crown and the Classic. It was an amazing year, and he was truly a brilliant race horse who captivated fans around the country.

When Justify won just three years later, it did not feel the same. He beat a very suspect group of three year olds, and was not impressive doing it. And then he retired as if his connections were afraid to see him lose against older horses and taint his legacy. No one compared him to any of the all time greats. It simply felt weird.

Now it makes sense

As the memory of Justify was slipping into history, a bombshell broke on Wednesday. Joe Drape of the New York Times dropped an in depth piece on the horse. Justify failed a drug test after the Santa Anita Derby. He should have been disqualified from his win in the race, and would not have even been in the Triple Crown. But the ruling was put off, kept under wraps, and the horse was allowed to race. After he won the Triple Crown, the board lessened the penalty for use of the particular drug he was caught with, effectively changing the rules to avoid a bad look.

Then it was somehow kept under wraps for two years.

Bad looks all around

As a longtime fan and supporter of the sport, stories like this are beyond frustrating, and goes to a deeper problem: Inconsistent rules. Each state has its own set of rules, and they are not all enforced consistently. When Maximum Security was disqualified from the Kentucky Derby, it was a controversy of the first order. Whether or not it was the right call varies from state to state, and even track to track. Stewards make those calls, and they are subjective. What is enforced in one place is not in another. Not everyone plays by the same standards.

Why Justify?

There is no reason to doubt Drape's reporting. He is one of the best in the business, especially when it comes to the news of the sport, and his story is well worth your time. So the real question is why?

The California Horse Racing Board took almost a month to confirm the results, ostensibly because they wanted to be sure. But that put them up against the Derby, and a DQ at that point would have been problematic. There is nothing wrong in being sure and getting the ruling right. But then once the horse wins the Triple Crown, imagine the outrage had it gone public.

There were three real problems; the lack of transparency, changing the rules and potential conflict of interest. Some of the board members are horse owners; the chairman owns horses raced by Justify's high profile trainer, Bob Baffert.

The board may have very well been, er, justified in all of its moves. But these three issues make it a very bad look.

The ruling that it was accidental, then, is easy to question. Baffert has had a ton of success and does not need to cheat, but he is not the only one in the barn or with contact to the horses. So it is possible the ruling was the right thing, but the way it happened is simply unacceptable. That the rules were changed after the Triple Crown makes it look even worse.

Black eyes? 

Those calling it yet another black eye on a sport that has had its share this year - the deaths at Santa Anita and the Derby itself - are merely scratching the surface. The sport has no eyes left. They have been beaten so hard it doesn't begin to tell the story. I have seen it all over the years; fixed races, horses being held back, inconsistent rulings, high profile cheating trainers. There are more good people than bad in racing, as there is in all of life. But it's always the bad that get the attention and ruin it for everyone else. Were these bad people? No. But when you try to hide something like this, there is no way to spin it into a positive.

The biggest issue - players have no rights

Lost in all this is the person who bets. Those of us who bet against Justify have no recourse. As sports betting becomes legal everywhere, these are issues that will impact more than horse racing. We already see it in boxing and MMA; you bet on a fight, lose and then a few days later whoever won failed a drug test and is disqualified. What if you bet on the Saints to cover Monday night, and two days after Deshaun Watson is suspended for PEDs and should have never played? While that is extreme - you made your decision based on the fact that he was playing - the player has no voice.

Horse racing should be more cognizant of that than any sport. Without betting, it does not exist. With sports betting coming to more states, horseplayers will gravitate away, especially as controversies like this keep happening. It is a sport that has been filled with controversy with years. Horse racing is where steroids started. Everyone in the sport should be aware of that.

There aren't a lot of us broken down horseplayers left. Decisions like this make it harder to keep trusting that the races we are betting on are honest.

The final analysis

Justify's breeding rights were sold for $60 million. As for his legacy? Most considered him the worst Triple Crown winner in history before. This won't do anything but reinforce that, but the breeding money spends just the same. Drape's story doesn't really change anything in the grand scheme. It simply casts light on a problem that needs to be dealt with whenever gambling and people's investments are involved: Transparency. Honestly. Consistency.

I won't hold my breath.

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Miami (6-7) at Houston (8-5)

Sunday, 1 p.m. EST, CBS

BetMGM Odds: Texans by 3.

Against the spread: Dolphins 5-8; Texans 5-6-2.

Series record: Texans lead 8-3.

Last meeting: Dolphins beat Texans 30-15, on Nov. 27, 2022, in Miami.

Last week: Dolphins beat Jets 32-26 in OT; Texans were off, beat Jaguars 23-20 on Dec. 1.

Dolphins offense: overall (19), rush (24), pass (14), scoring (23).

Dolphins defense: overall (9), rush (7), pass (11), scoring (T14).

Texans offense: overall (18), rush (16), pass (17), scoring (11).

Texans defense: overall (5), rush (10), pass (7), scoring (T12).

Turnover differential: Dolphins minus-2; Texans plus-10.

Dolphins player to watch

QB Tua Tagovailoa, who has been one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL at throwing with anticipation and accuracy since he returned from a concussion in Week 8. Tagovailoa leads the NFL with a 73.8% completion rate and threw for 300 yards for the third straight game last week vs. the Jets. Tagovailoa is the first player in NFL history to have at least 40 pass attempts, multiple touchdown passes and no interceptions in three consecutive games within a single season.

Texans player to watch

QB C.J. Stroud has thrown for at least 225 yards in each of his six home games this season and is 11-4 in 15 starts in Houston, including the playoffs. He has thrown for 3,117 yards with 15 touchdowns and nine interceptions this season.

Key matchup

Houston RB Joe Mixon vs. Miami’s run defense. Mixon ran for 101 yards in Houston’s previous game for his seventh 100-yard game this season. He ranks third in the NFL by averaging 88.7 yards rushing a game. This week he’ll face a run defense that ranks seventh in the NFL by holding teams to 105.6 yards a game.

Key injuries

Miami LT Terron Armstead is dealing with a knee injury that limited him to just five snaps last week. He did not practice Wednesday… LBs Bradley Chubb (knee) and Cameron Goode (knee) could make their season debut, depending on how this week of practice goes, coach Mike McDaniel said. … WRs Tyreek Hill (wrist) and Jaylen Waddle (hamstring), RB Raheem Mostert (hip), and LB Anthony Walker Jr. (hamstring) were among those limited in practice Wednesday. … Houston S Jalen Pitre is expected to miss a second straight game with a shoulder injury. … DE Denico Autry was limited in practice Wednesday because of a knee injury.

Series notes

Houston won the first seven meetings in this series. … Miami didn’t get its first win against the Texans until a 44-26 victory in 2015. … The Dolphins have won the past two meetings. … These teams first met in the season opener in 2003 when Houston got a 21-20 win on a late field goal.

Stats and stuff

Three of Miami’s final four games of the season are on the road. … K Jason Sanders needs 13 points Sunday to reach 800. He also needs one field goal to reach 177, which would give him the second-most field goals made in franchise history. … TE Jonnu Smith needs 100 yards receiving to reach 792 and set a franchise record for most yards receiving by a tight end in a single season. Smith had three catches for 44 yards, including the game-winning TD vs. the Jets last week after having no receptions during regulation. … Tagovailoa needs a completion rate of 70% or better on Sunday to reach eight consecutive games completing at least 70% of his passes. That would tie him with Joe Montana (1989) and Drew Brees (2017-18) for the longest streak in NFL history. … The Dolphins gave up a season-high 402 yards to the Jets last week. Aaron Rodgers burned Miami’s pass defense for 319 yards, and Miami’s secondary allowed a combined 223 yards by Garrett Wilson and Davante Adams. … Houston can clinch the AFC South title for the second straight year with a win and a loss by Indianapolis Sunday. … The Texans rank second in the NFL with 84 tackles for loss. … Their 42 sacks also rank second. … WR Nico Collins had eight receptions for 119 yards for his fourth 100-yard game this season in Houston’s previous game. He has had at least 75 yards receiving and a TD reception in each of his four home games this season. … TE Dalton Schultz had five receptions for 61 yards and a score in Week 13. He has had at least five catches in two of his past three games. … LB Azeez Al-Shaai will serve the first game of a three-game suspension for an illegal hit to the head of QB Trevor Lawrence Sunday. … DE Danielle Hunter is one of two players in the NFL this season with at least 15 tackles for loss (15) and 10 sacks (10 1/2). It’s his sixth career season with at least 10 sacks. He has eight tackles for loss and five sacks combined in his past three games. … DE Will Anderson has had a sack in his past two home games. … LB Henry To’oTo’o has had at least five tackles in four straight games. … CB Derek Stingley had his third interception of the season in his previous game. … CB Kamari Lassiter had a career-high eight tackles, including a tackle for loss in Week 13. … S Jimmie Ward has had an interception in his past two home games. He also had an interception in his previous game against Miami in 2022 while with San Francisco.

Fantasy tip

Collins has 456 yards receiving and four touchdown receptions in four home games this season.

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