BETTING ON SPORTS

Keys to being a winning sports gambler

Keys to being a winning sports gambler
Want to build your bankroll? Follow these tips. Jay K. Stark

The NFL season has come to a close and now degenerate gamblers (like myself), turn the page to other sports. In the gambling world, football is king and handles the most bets and money wagered. Let's take a look how other sports measure up during the regular season:

Total amount bet on each sport

According to the UNLV center for gaming research, from 1992-2017 the order regarding handle for the dominant sports:
Football
Basketball
Baseball

Over the years, NFL has dominated, but according to well-known bookmaker Jimmy Vaccaro, NCAA football has gained ground in the past few years. Professional football leads the way, and maybe it's the fact that the stage is set up perfect for the NFL to display its product. During the season, the week gives fans several chances to watch and bet Nationally televised games on Monday, Thursday and Sunday nights. Not only that, but Sundays also provide us with the opportunity to end our week with over 10 hours of games. College football gives us a full Saturday slate with mediocre games during the week.

Professional football gives us the least amount of games with 256 scheduled contest in a season. The NBA schedules teams for 82 games during the regular season giving us 1230 games to bet on. The MLB takes the crown in length, where the season consists of 162 games for a yearly total of 2,430.

Does the number of games in a season for each given sport affect the popularity in terms of wagering? Let’s take a look how much books won on each sport.

Percent of total amount bet that casino won


With the exception of a few years, Basketball regularly holds the highest win percentage for casinos. Just last year, basketball profited almost twice as much as baseball. Again, the variance in basketball is what makes it tough. A vast percentage of NBA and NCAA games are decided by free throws and fouls in the closing moments. In the NFL, the way the scoring system is set, we know what to look for. Scores come in increments of 3 and 7 (rare safety 2). This makes it easier to predict what scores are needed in the closing moments of the game.

For example, Team X leads by 7 points. The opposing team holds the final possession. Team Y won't settle for a field goal knowing they need a touchdown and extra point to tie the game. With the scoring set this way, the key numbers of  3,7,10,6 and 4 are vital.

In Basketball, close games are measured more by the number of possessions that separates the two teams. In a 2-3 point game, teams know they can win or tie it up with a single shot. In the 4-6 point range, it takes two possessions. Knowing this, the end of basketball games are very unpredictable as teams will foul and extend games trying to maximize their chances of coming back. Late free throws and bad fouls can decide whether or not you cash tickets.

Baseball has the less variation and that’s why it holds the best value in terms of betting. Most run lines in baseball are set at 1.5, giving actual weight to each run. All three competitions are considered "team" sports, but when handicapping baseball the greatest unit of measure used is Pitching vs. Batting matchups, making it somewhat of a 1 vs. 1 contest. Yes, fielding, base running, and other things factor in, but when you narrow it down, Pitching advantages are what drive the final number. In football and basketball, it takes more to be in sync as a whole. Also, the MLB season gives us many more chances to bet making the sample size bigger when tallying up final numbers for the year. If you consider yourself a good bettor, then opportunities are what you're looking for.

Sports betting should be treated as a long-term investment. Most recreational gamblers risk too much of their bankroll on single games. The difference between a novice gambler and a pro is the professional possesses a bankroll separate from their other finances. From that total figure, a pro gambler can spilt up their plays into percentages of the total bankroll. You see all the time where sports touts are claiming 10-50 unit plays, that’s absurd. Using that theory, a tout can go 1-4 but still profit, if the one play was larger than the rest. While that sounds appealing, flip it around, and you can also lose by going 4-1 if the one loss was bigger than the other plays combined. Making some plays abnormally large makes it difficult for a gambler to be consistent over time.

Overbetting is the most common mistake made by gamblers. Many systems recommend making plays 1% of your bankroll. How many times do we see wagers of $100? Wagering a Benjamin would mean that your bankroll sits at $10,000, and how many actual gamblers are sitting on that much separate from other finances?  

It's a long race, far from a sprint. Take your time and never chase losses. Stick to a method of betting that works for you and follow it consistently. If you do it just for fun or to "make the game interesting," by all means step outside and take your chances. But, if this is what you plan on doing for an extended period and rely on as an income, read into the numbers and give yourself the best odds at winning long term.

For any questions or comments reach me @JerryBoKnowz on twitter

Data used from UNLV for gaming research.

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The Rockets are in it to win it this year. Composite Getty Image.

While the rolling Astros have a week of possible World Series preview matchups against the Phillies and Cubs, it’s the Rockets who made the biggest local sports headline with their acquisition of Kevin Durant. What a move! Of course there is risk involved in trading for a guy soon to turn 37 years old and who carries an injury history, but balancing risk vs. reward is a part of the game. This is a fabulous move for the Rockets. It’s understood that there are dissenters to this view. Everyone is entitled to an opinion, including people with the wrong opinion! Let’s dig in.

The Rockets had a wonderful season in winning 52 games before their disappointing first-round playoff loss to the Warriors, but like everyone else in the Western Conference, they were nowhere close to Oklahoma City’s caliber. While they finished second in the West, the Rockets only finished four games ahead of the play-in. That letting the stew simmer with further growth among their young players would yield true championship contention was no given for 2025-26 or beyond.

Kevin Durant is one of the 10 greatest offensive players the NBA has ever seen. Among his current contemporaries only Stephen Curry and Nikola Jokic make that list. For instance, Durant offensively has clearly been better than the late and legendary Kobe Bryant. To view it from a Houston perspective, Durant has been an indisputably greater offensive force than the amazing Hakeem Olajuwon. But this is not a nostalgia trip in which the Rockets are trading for a guy based on what he used to be. While Durant could hit the wall at any point, living in fear that it’s about to happen is no way to live because KD, approaching his 18th NBA season, is still an elite offensive player.

As to the durability concern, Durant played more games (62) this past season than did Fred VanVleet, Jabari Smith, and Tari Eason. The season before he played more games (75) than did VanVleet, Dillon Brooks, and Alperen Sengun. In each of the last two seasons Durant averaged more minutes per game (36.9) than any Rocket. That was stupid and/or desperate of the Suns, the Rockets will be smarter. Not that the workload eroded Durant’s production or efficiency. Over the two seasons he averaged almost 27 points per game while shooting 52 percent from the floor, 42 percent from behind the three-point line, and 85 percent from the free throw line. Awesomeness. The Rockets made the leap to being a very good team despite a frankly crummy half-court offense. The Rockets ranked 21st among the 30 NBA teams in three-point percentage, and dead last in free throw percentage. Amen Thompson has an array of skills and looks poised to be a unique star. Alas, Thompson has no credible jump shot. VanVleet is not a creator, Smith has limited handle. Adding Durant directly addresses the Rockets’ most glaring weakness.

The price the Rockets paid was in the big picture, minimal, unless you think Jalen Green is going to become a bonafide star. Green is still just 23 years old and spectacular athletically, but nothing he has done over four pro seasons suggests he’s on the cusp of greatness. In no season has Green even shot the league average from the floor or from three. His defense has never been as good as it should be given his athleticism. Compared to some other two-guards who made the NBA move one year removed from high school, four seasons into his career Green is waaaaaay behind where Shae Gilgeous-Alexander, Anthony Edwards, and Devin Booker were four seasons in, and now well behind his draft classmate Cade Cunningham. Dillon Brooks was a solid pro in two seasons here and shot a career-best from three in 2024-2025, but he’s being replaced by Kevin Durant! In terms of the draft pick capital sent to Phoenix, five second round picks are essentially meaningless. The Rockets have multiple extra first round picks in the coming years. As for the sole first-rounder dealt away, whichever player the Rockets would have taken 10th Wednesday night would have been rather unlikely to crack the playing rotation.

VanVleet signs extension

Re-signing Fred VanVleet to a two-year, 50 million dollar guarantee is sensible. In a vacuum, VanVleet was substantially overpaid at the over 40 mil he made per season the last two. He’s a middle-of-the-pack starting point guard. But his professionalism and headiness brought major value to the Rockets’ kiddie corps while their payroll was otherwise very low. Ideally, Reed Sheppard makes a leap to look like an NBA lead guard in his second season, after a pretty much zippo of a rookie campaign. Sheppard is supposed to be a lights-out shooter. For the Rockets to max out, they need two sharpshooters on the court to balance Thompson’s presence.

For Astro-centric conversation, join Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and me for the Stone Cold ‘Stros podcast which drops each Monday afternoon, with an additional episode now on Thursday. Click here to catch!

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