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Lance Zierlein: I started an Astros Civil War

Lance Zierlein
Lance Zierlein: I started an Astros Civil War
Jose Altuve continues to pile up massive numbers. Photo by Bob Levey/Getty Images

I would like to take this opportunity to apologize for my role in starting the Great Astros Civil War of 2018. It was unintentional. I promise. I didn’t begin my Twitter comments with hate in my heart—I simply said what I thought all Astros fans were thinking. I had no idea that so many of us are not on the same page.

It started innocently enough with a graphic that was re-tweeted to me.

Of course, I took one look at that tweet and retweeted it adding the comment:

“Uh...........‘real possibility’ ??? Yeah..... it's already a thing.”

Now, it was my understanding that we were all on the same page here as Astros fans. Remember that incredible World Series win and the subsequent celebrations? Remember Altuve’s three-homer game in Boston? Remember Altuve’s MVP season and third batting crown in four years? Yeah, that didn’t really matter to some of you who are ready for a Saturday Twitter scrap.

To begin with, my first thought was “Wait…. it’s Jeff Bagwell and not Craig Biggio? I thought it was probably Biggio.” I actually tweeted that and it definitely touched off a skirmish. The sabermetric watchdogs feverishly searched BaseballReference.com to hit me with as many forms of “WAR” as they could to prove that Bagwell > Biggio. Baggy’s 1994 was astounding. As baseball historian Bill James pointed out years ago, it was one of the great offensive seasons of all time. With that said, he never reached that level again for the rest of his career.

Bagwell‘s numbers were great, but also heavy on power (in the midst of the most infamously tarnished era in baseball) and light on production when it matters most—in the playoffs. Bagwell played in 33 postseason contests with a career batting average of .226 and an OPS of .685. As a point of reference, his career average was .297 with an OPS of .948. Altuve’s best season didn’t come in his fourth year. No, his best work has come over the last two seasons with this year’s MVP season as his finest.

Oh, and about the postseason. He’s played in 24 career playoff games with a batting average of .268, but an OPS of .842 which is higher than his .816 career OPS. Did I mention he has 7 postseason home runs to Bagwell’s 2? And Altuve is getting better with each passing season. Did Bagwell ever figure out how to quiet those hands and improve his contact? No. Did Biggio ever learn to lay off the slider away? No. Altuve, on the other hand, was so disappointed in his approach to curveballs that he worked tirelessly on it in the offseason and ended up hitting over .400 against the pitch this season.

There were Bagwell vs. Biggio battles. There were Bagwell vs. Altuve arguments and there was even an Altuve vs. Joe Morgan argument made by one fan that believed that Morgan was a better Astros second baseman than Altuve *eye roll emoji*. I understand the argument that Altuve hasn’t reached the statistical achievements of Bagwell or Biggio, but that’s an apples to oranges argument since we are simply waiting for time to pass so the sample size is more even. He’s on a Pete Rose pace in terms of hits. He doesn’t have to get to 3,000 hits or 400 home runs for him to match or pass Bagwell or Biggio as the greatest Astro ever.  No. Altuve did something in the postseason that will live with Astros fans forever. Altuve as the undisputed “greatest Astro” is just a matter of time. Tick. Tock. Tick. Tock.

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Is leadership the main problem for Houston? Composite Getty Image.

With the Astros now officially ten games under .500 for the season, manager Joe Espada is taking a lot of heat from the fanbase for the team's struggles.

While we don't agree with the sentiment, we even hear fans clamoring for the return of Dusty Baker and Martin Maldonado, thinking the Astros wouldn't be in this mess if they were still here.

Which is ridiculous. First of all, Maldonado has been awful for the White Sox, hitting .048 (even worse than Jose Abreu's .065). And for those of you that think his work with the pitching staff justifies his pathetic offense. Let me say this: Where was Maldy's game calling genius for Hunter Brown, Cristian Javier, and Framber Valdez last year? All of them regressed significantly.

And as far as Baker is concerned, we have no idea how much a difference he would make, we can only speculate. Baker would also be dealing with a pitching staff ravaged with injuries. And let's not forget, Baker was the guy that refused to move Jose Abreu down in the batting order, even though he would finish the regular season with the ninth-worst OPS in baseball.

The reality of the situation is managers can only do so much in baseball. Which leads us to something else that needs to be considered. Is Espada being handcuffed by the front office? Espada and GM Dana Brown both said recently that Jon Singleton was going to get more at-bats while they give Abreu time off to try to figure things out. Yet, there Abreu was in the lineup again in the opening game of the Cubs series.

It makes us wonder how much power does Espada truly have? The Astros have some other options at first base. Yainer Diaz may only have eight games played at the position, but how much worse could he be than Abreu defensively? Abreu already has four errors, and Diaz is obviously a way better hitter. Victor Caratini isn't considered a plus offensive player, but his .276 batting average makes him look like Babe Ruth compared to Abreu. Let him catch more often and play Diaz at first. Starting Diaz at first more often could also lengthen his career long-term.

Maybe that's too wild of a move. Okay, fine. How about playing Mauricio Dubon at first base? I understand he doesn't have much experience at that position, but what's the downside of trying him there? If he can play shortstop, he can play first base. He's driving in runs at a higher rate (11 RBIs) than everyone on the team outside of Kyle Tucker and Yordan Alvarez. And he's producing like that as part-time player right now.

The other criticism we see of Espada is his use of Jon Singleton to pinch hit late in games. Let's be real, though, who else does Espada have on the roster to go to? Batting Abreu late in games in which you're trailing should be considered malpractice. Espada can only use who he has to work with. This all really stems from the Astros poor farm system.

They don't have anyone else to turn to. The draft picks the club lost from the sign-stealing scandal are really hurting them right now. First and second rounders from 2020 and 2021 should be helping you in 2024 at the big league level.

Maybe they go to Astros prospect Joey Loperfido soon, but after a hot start he has only two hits in his last six games.

Finally, we have to talk about what seems like a committee making baseball decisions. Lost in a committee is accountability. Who gets the blame for making poor decisions?

As time continues to pass it looks like moving on from former GM James Click was a massive mistake. He's the guy that didn't sign Abreu, but did trade Myles Straw (recently DFA'd) for Yainer Diaz and Phil Maton. He also built an elite bullpen without breaking the bank, and helped the club win a World Series in 2022.

The reality of the situation is Dusty Baker and James Click are not walking back through that door. And all good runs come to an end at some point. Is this what we're witnessing?

Don't miss the video above as we hit on all the points discussed and much more!

Catch Stone Cold 'Stros (an Astros podcast) with Charlie Pallilo, Brandon Strange, and Josh Jordan. We drop two episodes every week on SportsMapHouston's YouTube channel. You can also listen on Apple Podcast, Spotifyor wherever you get your podcasts.

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