The Z Report

Lance Zierlein: Is Jadeveon Clowney worth $15M per year?

Jadeveon Clowney had a big 2017. Houstontexans.com

The Houston Texans are under the direction of a new GM for the first time since 2006, but we still aren’t sure how different the Texans will operate as it pertains to salary extensions and how they handle roster situations.

On one hand, Bernardrick McKinney was just given a 5-year, $50M deal with $21M guaranteed. Now keep in mind that McKinney is the clear-cut thumper in the middle who has accounted for 95 and 129 tackles over the last two seasons to go along with three and five sacks in both years. McKinney has been productive, durable and consistent. McKinney will be compensated like one of the best inside linebackers in the league starting in 2019, so should Jadeveon Clowney expect the same?

The case for extending Clowney now

You have to pay Jadeveon Clowney. When Clowney has been healthy, he’s been a bonafide shop-wrecker and one of the more disruptive defensive ends in the game. Like homeruns in baseball, sacks are the sexy stat used by fans and media members to determine the worth and effectiveness of a player, but Clowney’s impact as a run defender is substantial and should not be undersold. Just google it.

 

Clowney is a plus pass rusher who has increased his sack total in each season and is coming off of a career high 9.5 sacks. This, despite the fact that J.J. Watt and Whitney Mercilus weren’t there to occupy blockers and take some of the offensive line’s attention away from Clowney.

J.J. Watt hasn’t been healthy for two full seasons and Clowney’s importance to this defensive front is now more critical than ever. He may not be an elite pass rusher, but he’s a damn good every down player with an ability to alter the course of a game and he’s only getting better. Clowney’s contract negotiations will likely have to start at $14M per year, but getting a deal done now could save the team millions over the life of the second contract.

The case to wait

Don’t be the desperate boyfriend looking to get married too soon, Texans. There is no reason to put an expensive ring on it until you are absolutely sure that Clowney is going to be the same guy we saw last year.

The version of Clowney that we saw last season played the full year, was great against the run and showed continued improvement as a pass rusher. That’s inarguable. But the question is whether that version of Clowney is what we are going to keep seeing. Let’s remember that this is a player who has missed two, three, and 12 games from 2016 thru 2014. He had to have microfracture surgery as a rookie. If you aren’t concerned about future durability then you might be a fool.

One could argue that Clowney approached 2017 like a contract season since it’s not unusual to get extended before your last season. So if that is the case, let’s see if he can maintain his health for consecutive seasons and let’s see if his growth as a pass rusher will continue to yield fruit. We can act like $14M is the starting point in negotiations, but in real life, the starting point is at least J.J. Watt’s average per year at about $16.6M. Can’t the Texans just wait one more season to find out if Clowney is worth this investment?

And so...?

So I’ve shown you the two arguments that are out there for signing and not signing Clowney before the season starts. I have a hard time imagining a world where Clowney isn’t a Houston Texan next season, but it could very well be with a franchise tag attached to him.

You do have to wonder why the Texans haven’t extended him already, but if I were in charge, I think I might be approaching this the same way the Texans are. Nobody is saying he’s not a very good player who is emerging as a great player, but I think I need to see it for another year.


 

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Keep an eye on Tank Dell this Sunday. Photo by Alex Bierens de Haan/Getty Images.

I remember thinking how in the world can these little frail guys survive at the NFL level? I mean, I saw Joe Theismann and Ed McCaffrey's legs snap. Drew Bledsoe got his chest caved in. Seeing 300-plus pound men cry when injured is humbling. So when a guy like Tank Dell comes along, I'm always a bit apprehensive. Especially when they come with a ton of hype.

For every eight to ten big strong players that get hurt, there's one or two little fellas that have relatively healthy careers. The comp that came to mind when looking at Tank was DeSean Jackson. Listed at 5'10 and weighing a heavy 175 pounds, Jackson was arguably the best “small guy” in NFL history. Dell being about two inches shorter and about ten pounds lighter, while also playing a similar role, is in line to be a similarly electrifying type of player. I put my assessment on the line and doubled down with my predictions on what his, and others' season totals will look like last week:

Tank Dell: 68 catches, 1,105 yards and 6 touchdowns- Dell will be a really good slot, but has some outside skills. Namely, his speed. He's more slippery than if Mick had greased that chicken before Rocky tried catching it. I could see his production going up as the season gets longer because Stroud will begin to look for him more and more as they build chemistry. Yes, I know I only have him with six scores. Keep in mind this is a run first offense. At least that's what we can deduce from looking at where it came from in San Francisco.

In his debut game last week vs the Ravens, he notched three catches for 34 yards on four targets. He was tied for third on the team in targets with Noah Brown and Mike Boone. While Robert Woods and Nico Collins were one and two in targets last week, I think Dell will ascend that list starting this week. Word came down that Noah Brown is headed to IR, meaning he'll miss at least the next four weeks. The chemistry he and fellow rookie C.J. Stroud have developed is palpable. From working out together, to attending UH games together, these two seem to have a nice bond already.

Woods is a solid vet two years removed from an ACL injury. Collins was a third rounder with size who hasn't done a whole lot. Dell is easily the most exciting option at receiver this team has. John Metchie III was expected to be the next guy up. Unfortunately, cancer had him take a backseat, until now. Metchie is back at practice this week, so a debut is imminent. He could potentially challenge for more playing time, but it may take him some time to get used to things and get going again.

As far as my statistical prediction for his season, he only needs to average four catches for 67 yards per game, and get a touchdown every two to three games for the remainder of the season. Given Brown being out the next few games, Metchie not quite being up to speed, Woods being an older player on a short-term deal, and Collins not really being what everyone thought he could be, it leaves things wide open for Dell to step up.

Playmakers come in all shapes and sizes. Levon Kirkland was a 300-pound middle linebacker in a 3-4. Doug Flutie led teams to playoff wins as a 5'9 quarterback. In football, size matters. The bigger, stronger guys normally win out. When it comes to receiving and returns, you want speed, quickness, and agility. Dell has that in spades. Add his competitive nature and chemistry with his quarterback and you have a recipe for a star in the making. I know I'm not the only one hoping the Texans continue Tank-ing.

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