The Z Report

Lance Zierlein: Luhnow is hoping for his own Tyreek Hill ending

Lance Zierlein: Luhnow is hoping for his own Tyreek Hill ending
Jeff Luhnow is facing a lot of questions over his latest trade. Bob Levey/Getty Images

Well, you wanted a closer to help round out the Houston Astros chances at repeating as a World Series champion. Hell, I wanted a closer too. I wanted one badly! Now we got one. Somehow, this isn’t what I had in mind.

The Astros decided to cash-in their goodwill within the community and trade for a talented, yet troubled closer from the Toronto Blue Jays, Roberto Osuna. Twitter and sports talk radio is full of opinions regarding Osuna and the Astros decision to add him after serving a 75-game suspension for domestic abuse, but where will everyone stand in October?

When the Chiefs drafted Tyreek

All of us have seen how this could end up playing out. We saw it in May of 2016 when the Kansas City Chiefs drafted wideout Tyreek Hill from West Alabama in the fifth round. Hill had been a running back at Oklahoma State but was dismissed from the school after being charged with domestic abuse and later plead guilty to punching and choking his pregnant girlfriend and received three years of probation. Hill eventually landed at West Alabama.

I was on the set of NFL Now’s broadcast of the 2016 NFL Draft and I was visibly dumbfounded that Hill was actually drafted by an NFL team. I simply couldn’t hide it. I didn’t think there was any chance that he would be drafted considering his guilty plea of such heinous charges. Chiefs fans weren’t too crazy about it either. Here is a sampling of some of the things were said on the comment section of Hill’s NFL.com draft profile:

Homework, time and talent

An executive from a separate AFC team told me they loved Hill’s talent and did their homework and believed that Hill might have beat the case, but that financial concerns over legal fees and fear of jail time caused him to plea out. However, pleading guilty to abusing a pregnant woman was just something they were not prepared to defend to their fans and media so they took Hill off the board.

The Chiefs did their own investigating and they believed that Hill was worth taking a chance on. He had elite speed, immense talent and they ultimately believed in the person. Despite the initial anger from fans and scrutiny of media, Kansas City was repaid with a rookie season that included twelve touchdowns combined (6 receiving, 3 rushing, 2  kick returns, 1 punt return) and a first team All-Pro designation.

After two years in the league, Hill is a two-time Pro Bowler and beloved by Chiefs fans. Chants of “Ty-Reek, Ty-Reek, Ty-Reek” rang through the Arrowhead stadium, Hill’s rookie season as the Chiefs clinched their first division title since 2010.

The Astros, like the Chiefs in 2016, are banking on their homework, the talent and time. There is no way the Astros haven’t done their homework on Osuna. Anything negative that comes out beyond this point is going to be extremely damning, but the Astros must believe they can fade it. They are getting a very talented player for a very modest price and history tells us that over time talented players who perform at a high level are shown forgiveness - especially by the local fanbase.

Paradigm shift for Luhnow and Astros?

I’m not here to argue whether or not the Astros decision to trade for Osuna is right or wrong. To be honest, the details of what went down haven’t been made public and the courts haven’t weight in just yet. What I can work off of, however, is that Major League Baseball suspended Osuan for 75 games and there was no appeal. Maintaining an adherence to “innocent until proven guilty” is challenging for all of us with that such a harsh suspension levied against Osuna.

As stated prior, I believe you will see fan anger over Osuna subside if he’s able to get guys out. It will also help his cause if the team starts winning and gets hot going into the playoffs. Is it right that our attitudes are tied to winning? Of course not, but that’s the way it is. Fight it if you want, but you’ll always find that few people show up at your meetings.

Then again, if Osuna struggles to find his form after sitting out for much of this season, Astros General Manager Jeff Luhnow will find himself in the crosshairs of a portion of the fanbase. This is the kind of move that can help remove the cloak of invincibility that he deserved to wear after building the Astros into a World Series winner.

The national media is going to stay on the Astros for using their ridiculous “zero tolerance” comment at the same time they traded for a player serving a substantial suspension for domestic violence. I still don’t understand why Luhnow would make such a potentially risky move  when there were other arms out there. My guess is that he simply couldn’t pass up on the perceived value.

The Astros have a great clubhouse and appear to love each other like brothers. It will be interesting to see how Osuna fits in with this tightly-knit crew. I guess time will tell whether Osuna is the next Tyreek Hill or if he becomes the player and the trade that caused Astros fans to fall out of love with this general manager.

 

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The Astros addressed a lot of needs in this year's draft. Photo by Tim Warner/Getty Images.

The Houston Astros entered the 2025 MLB Draft with limited capital but a clear objective: find talent that can help sustain their winning ways without needing a full organizational reboot. With just under $7.2 million in bonus pool money and two forfeited picks, lost when they signed slugger Christian Walker, the Astros needed to be smart, aggressive, and a little bold. They were all three.

 

A swing on star power

 

With the 21st overall pick, Houston selected Xavier Neyens, a powerful left-handed high school bat from Mt. Vernon, Washington. At 6-foot-4, Neyens is raw but loaded with tools, a slugger with plus power and the kind of bat speed that turns heads.

He’s the Astros’ first high school position player taken in the first round in a decade.

If Neyens develops as expected, he could be the next cornerstone in the post-Altuve/Bregman era. Via: MLB.com:

It’s possible we’ll look back at this first round and realize that the Astros got the best power hitter in the class. At times, Neyens has looked like an elite hitter who’d easily get to that pop, and at times the swing-and-miss tendencies concerned scouts, which is why he didn’t end up closer to the top of the first round. He was announced as a shortstop, but his size (6-foot-4) and his arm will profile best at third base.

Their next big swing came in the third round with Ethan Frey, an outfielder/DH from LSU who was one of the most imposing college hitters in the country.

He blasted 13 home runs in the SEC and helped lead the Tigers to a championship.

 

Filling the middle

 

In the fourth round, the Astros grabbed Nick Monistere, an infielder/outfielder out of Southern Miss who won Sun Belt Player of the Year honors.

 

He doesn’t jump off the page with tools, but he rakes, hitting .323 with 21 home runs this past season, and plays with a chip on his shoulder.

They followed that up with Nick Potter, a right-handed reliever from Wichita State. He projects as a fast-moving bullpen piece, already showing a mature approach and a “fastball that was regularly clocked in the upper-90s and touched 100 miles per hour.”

From there, Houston doubled down on pitching depth and versatility. They took Gabel Pentecost, a Division II flamethrower, Jase Mitchell, a high school catcher with upside, and a host of college arms, all in hopes of finding the next Spencer Arrighetti or Hunter Brown.

 

Strategy in motion

 

Missing multiple picks, Houston leaned into two things: ceiling and speed to the majors. Neyens brings the first, Frey and Monistere the second. And as they’ve shown in recent years, the Astros can develop arms with late-round pedigree into major league contributors.

The Astros didn’t walk away with flashy headlines, they weren’t drafting in the top 10. But they leave the 2025 draft with a clear direction: keep the farm alive with bats that can produce and arms that can fill in the gaps, especially with the club managing injuries and an aging core.

If Neyens becomes the slugger they hope, and if Frey or Monistere climbs fast, this draft could be another example of Houston turning limited resources into lasting impact.

You can see the full draft tracker here.


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