The Z Report
Lance Zierlein: Odds and End$ - I’ve got your props
Aug 8, 2018, 12:34 pm
Leonard Fournette could be in for a big year. Photo by Elsa/Getty Images
This is the time of year when the fantasy football owners out there are scouring the internet trying to glean as much information as they can about rookies, sleepers, expected targets for receivers, and emerging running backs.
For those who like to play the “game within the game”, this is the time of year they start looking for “futures” and finding the best values on the board. Because I love each and every one of you like you were my seventh or eighth child (I only have five), I’ve decided to give you action junkies my thoughts on some of the prop bets that I see right now. As for your fantasy ballers, I’ll get to you next week.
Offensive Rookie of the Year
Derrius Guice (WAS) 10:1 * Update: Suffered torn ACL in 1st preseason game.
Sam Darnold (NYJ) 17:1
Calvin Ridley (ATL) 20:1
Saquon Barkley is the favorite at even money, but what fun is that? Sam Darnold has a good chance to be the man from start to finish with the Jets so 17:1 odds is a great value. Calvin Ridley is getting 23:1 odds which is terrific value considering his ability to hit big plays and his quarterback who can air it out. Derrius Guice is off to a strong start and I like him getting 10:1 better than Barkley at EVEN.
Defensive Rookie of the Year
Roquan Smith (CHI) 3.5:1
Tremaine Edmunds (BUF) 9:1
Darius Leonard (IND) 20:1
I’m not going to lie, fading Broncos rookie DE Bradley Chubb at 3:1 won’t be easy, but the 2018 draft was the heavy with LB talent so let’s stick with these three. Roquan Smith is set to have a strong year right out of the gate and getting 3.5:1 is actually decent value. Tremaine Edmunds was as productive as they come in college and he has the athletic ability to translate that production into the pros. Leonard is flying under the radar somewhat, but he’s a great athlete who could end up playing all three downs for the Colts.
Rushing Leader
Leonard Fournette (JAX) 8.5:1
When you consider that Fournette had 268 carries last year, that young RBs are always most likely to get a heavy workload, and that Blake Bortles is the quarterback…. Well, you can see why I see this as such a value ticket.
Most Receiving Yards
Odell Beckham (NYG) 10:1
When he’s healthy (and happy?), Beckham might be the most talented receiver in the game today. Granted, it might not be safe to consider Beckham a happy camper right now, but he seems to believe that his contract will get worked out. If it does, then look out. If it doesn’t, he’s in a contract year and will likely be on his best behavior. Getting 10:1 for a talent like Beckham is great value.
Kirk Cousins OVER 25.5 Pass TDs
Alex Smith UNDER 23.5 Pass TDs
Ezekiel Elliott OVER 12.5 Rush TDs
Leonard Fournette OVER 10.5 Rush TDs
Michael Thomas OVER 7.5 Receiving TDs
Adam Thielen OVER 5.5 Receiving TDs
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C.J. Stroud and the Houston Texans are looking for answers after their passing game couldn’t get going in a loss to the Green Bay Packers.
Houston’s passing attack had been a strength all season, and the Texans ranked fifth in yards passing per game through their first six games. But on Sunday at Lambeau Field, Stroud was limited to a career-low 86 yards in the 24-22 loss, which snapped a three-game winning streak.
Stroud was 10 of 21 and didn’t have a touchdown pass for the first time this season. The second-year player was under duress for much of the day and was sacked four times and hit seven other times.
“We have to go back to the drawing board and see what those issues were,” coach DeMeco Ryans said. “As we watch the film, we’ll see what happened, starting for me the communication and just guys being on the details of the job.”
'Everything is on the table. We have to get it fixed' #Texans coach DeMeco Ryans on offensive line and if personnel changes are being contemplated @KPRC2 pic.twitter.com/AwK0rqeU2z
— Aaron Wilson (@AaronWilson_NFL) October 21, 2024
The Texans scored a season-high 41 points in a win over New England a week earlier in which Stroud threw a season-best three touchdown passes despite being without star receiver Nico Collins.
They were unable to replicate that success Sunday with Collins out for the second of at least four games after a hamstring injury landed him on injured reserve.
Stefon Diggs led the team with five receptions against the Packers, but they only amounted to 23 yards. Tank Dell, who the Texans expected to step up with Collins out, was targeted four times but didn’t have a catch.
Stroud discussed the importance of getting Dell more involved in the offense.
“We have to find a way to try and get him the rock early and often and then go from there,” he said. “It has to be a focus for us, not only just him, but the whole offense clicking early. That is really my job to get the ball out on time and to where it is supposed to go. So yeah, that definitely has to be fixed.”
Ryans spoke about his confidence is getting Dell going.
'I have all the faith in Tank' #Texans coach DeMeco Ryans expressed confidence in Tank Dell ability to get back to making explosive plays again as he did as a rookie @KPRC2 pic.twitter.com/bojBEx3lYo
— Aaron Wilson (@AaronWilson_NFL) October 21, 2024
What's working
The Texans have forced seven turnovers combined in their last two games after they hadn’t caused any in their previous three games.
Houston scored 16 points off three turnovers Sunday. The Texans had two interceptions and recovered a fumble on a punt. In their win over the Patriots, they scored 17 points off a season-high four turnovers.
What needs help
The Texans won’t get to where they want to be this season if Stroud doesn’t get back on track. Before Sunday, last year’s AP Offensive Rookie of the Year was averaging more than 262 yards passing a game, giving the team confidence that the problems in the passing game are fixable.
Ryans knows the line must give Stroud more time to throw and said the coaching staff will focus on improving in that area this week.
Stock up
RB Joe Mixon continued to shine Sunday in his second game back after missing three games with an ankle injury. Mixon, who is in his first season in Houston after a trade from Cincinnati, had 25 carries for 115 yards and two touchdowns against Green Bay.
Mixon is confident the Texans will rebound this week if they quit making mistakes.
“Does it look I’m worried? I’m not worried at all,” he said. “Like I said, we got a ... good football team. At the end of the day, we are our own worst enemy.”
Stock down
Dell was unable to help Stroud get the passing game going. The second-year player had a solid rookie season with 709 yards receiving and seven touchdowns in 11 games before breaking his leg. But he hasn’t been able to build on that success this year and has just 194 yards receiving with one score in six games.
Injuries
LB Azeez Al-Shaair (knee), LB Henry To’oTo’o (concussion), CB Kamari Lassiter (shoulder) and S Jimmie Ward (groin) all missed Sunday’s game and it’s unclear if any of these starters can return this week.
Key number
3 — Safety Calen Bullock had his third interception Sunday to tie Dunta Robinson and Jumal Rolle for most interceptions by a rookie in franchise history through the first seven games. He leads NFL rookies in interceptions this season and is tied for third-most among all players.
Next steps
The AFC South-leading Texans (5-2) return to division play Sunday when they host the second-place Colts (4-3), who have won two in a row and four of five.