The Z Report
Lance Zierlein: Odds and End$ - I’ve got your props
This is the time of year when the fantasy football owners out there are scouring the internet trying to glean as much information as they can about rookies, sleepers, expected targets for receivers, and emerging running backs.
For those who like to play the “game within the game”, this is the time of year they start looking for “futures” and finding the best values on the board. Because I love each and every one of you like you were my seventh or eighth child (I only have five), I’ve decided to give you action junkies my thoughts on some of the prop bets that I see right now. As for your fantasy ballers, I’ll get to you next week.
Offensive Rookie of the Year
Derrius Guice (WAS) 10:1 * Update: Suffered torn ACL in 1st preseason game.
Sam Darnold (NYJ) 17:1
Calvin Ridley (ATL) 20:1
Saquon Barkley is the favorite at even money, but what fun is that? Sam Darnold has a good chance to be the man from start to finish with the Jets so 17:1 odds is a great value. Calvin Ridley is getting 23:1 odds which is terrific value considering his ability to hit big plays and his quarterback who can air it out. Derrius Guice is off to a strong start and I like him getting 10:1 better than Barkley at EVEN.
Defensive Rookie of the Year
Roquan Smith (CHI) 3.5:1
Tremaine Edmunds (BUF) 9:1
Darius Leonard (IND) 20:1
I’m not going to lie, fading Broncos rookie DE Bradley Chubb at 3:1 won’t be easy, but the 2018 draft was the heavy with LB talent so let’s stick with these three. Roquan Smith is set to have a strong year right out of the gate and getting 3.5:1 is actually decent value. Tremaine Edmunds was as productive as they come in college and he has the athletic ability to translate that production into the pros. Leonard is flying under the radar somewhat, but he’s a great athlete who could end up playing all three downs for the Colts.
Leonard Fournette (JAX) 8.5:1
When you consider that Fournette had 268 carries last year, that young RBs are always most likely to get a heavy workload, and that Blake Bortles is the quarterback…. Well, you can see why I see this as such a value ticket.
Most Receiving Yards
Odell Beckham (NYG) 10:1
When he’s healthy (and happy?), Beckham might be the most talented receiver in the game today. Granted, it might not be safe to consider Beckham a happy camper right now, but he seems to believe that his contract will get worked out. If it does, then look out. If it doesn’t, he’s in a contract year and will likely be on his best behavior. Getting 10:1 for a talent like Beckham is great value.
Kirk Cousins OVER 25.5 Pass TDs
Alex Smith UNDER 23.5 Pass TDs
Ezekiel Elliott OVER 12.5 Rush TDs
Leonard Fournette OVER 10.5 Rush TDs
Michael Thomas OVER 7.5 Receiving TDs
Adam Thielen OVER 5.5 Receiving TDs