FIXING THE PROBLEMS
Lance Zierlein: Texans need a lot of work to repair the damage
Lance Zierlein
Feb 21, 2018, 11:25 am
Bob McNair needs to take his car to the shop. Now. Bob Levey/Getty Images
For all of us who drive, one of the worst feeling in the world is when your car doesn’t start. Obviously it’s not a good thing because you can’t get to where you want to go, but the scariest part is not knowing how bad the issue is and how expensive the fix is going to be.
Some of the worst issues with the car can be taking place even while the car is able to run. It is slowly deteriorating and the price of repair is mounting with every few times you drive. That’s the silent killer. Sure, your car issues might be as simple as a replacing the battery, but it could be much worse and much more expensive. You don’t know until you get it into the shop.
Under Drayton McLane, the Astros were a solid vehicle that ran fairly well for years, but he stopped changing the oil, starting grinding the gears and didn’t bring the Astros in when he saw the check engine light. The result? He ruined the car. He ran it into the ground. The price of repair was so costly that it made more sense to get a new car which is what the Astros had to do with their 100-loss seasons and their early round draft picks. They have a new owner that is taking care of the car so far. All is well.
Bob McNair’s car
The Houston Texans aren’t broken, but they aren’t running well and they could do substantial damage if they don’t bring it in for repairs during free agency and the draft. Their air conditioning (secondary) used to work fine, but it’s getting old and running out of freon (talent) and needs to all new parts. The tires (offensive line) were low quality to begin with and now they are completely worn and provide no traction. Oh, and they need another tight end.
Free agency is a chance to make quick fixes to your issues as a team. Sometimes they can be long-term fixes like when Johnathan Joseph was signed in 2011. Some of the fixes are short-term like with Danieal Manning from 2011. And of course, some fixes simply don’t work at all like with Jeff Allen and Ahman Green. This year, the free agent market isn’t great and it’s looking more and more like the Texans opportunity to fix their problems may be nothing more than patchwork options until they can get new talent drafted over the next couple of seasons.
Free agent opportunities
The Texans must sign an offensive lineman and they must sign someone in the secondary. We all know they have overwhelming needs at guard, tackle, cornerback and safety. Signing a guard and/or tackle is a must. They don’t have a first or second round pick so the opportunity to get a good offensive tackle who is ready to play early on is slim. The Texans could choose to sign Nate Solder away from the Patriots, but keep in mind that he’s a band-aid option and an expensive one.
Adding a guard via free agency is a possibility, but with three picks in the third round (they will get a third third rounder with a compensatory pick for A.J. Bouye), the Texans should be able to find a capable guard who has a chance to step in and start right away. Now I’m not saying one tackle and one guard is all it takes. They need at least one tackle and one guard. They could sign Andrew Norvell or even Josh Sitton who was cut by the Bears and still draft a guard.
In the secondary, Johnathan Joseph is done, Kareem Jackson is on his last legs and may need to try a move to safety to extend his career, and Kevin Johnson was largely disappointing last season. The Texans must sign a free agent like Malcolm Butler to give their secondary a fighting chance in coverage. And while signing a cornerback should be mandatory, so should drafting one -- or two. Safety is a need, but if you do a good job of evaluating, making a splashy signing or draft pick isn’t necessary to find help.
The Astros and the Rockets seem to be running like brand new models. The Texans better get their repairs made quickly to keep up with the rest of the teams in the neighborhood.
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While we wait to see whether the Texans get to avoid facing Patrick Mahomes in Kansas City Saturday, Houston and another "Show Me" state team popped into the news this week. There is irony in St. Louis Cardinals third baseman Nolan Arenado exercising his no-trade clause to prevent him from being traded to the Astros. Obviously, Arenado sees the Astros as no longer the behemoth they were for several seasons. Well, neither is Arenado. The Astros were last an elite ballclub in 2022 (and have the World Series trophy to prove it). Arenado was last an elite player in 2022 when he finished third in National League Most Valuable Player Award voting. The Astros were still good the last two years though no longer special. Arenado was a little above mediocre in 2023 and plain mediocre in 2024. If he’s trying to squeeze additional money beyond the 74 million dollars left on the three years remaining on his contract in order to approve the trade, he’s in fantasyland. Arenado is highly overpaid at his level of performance the last two seasons. More reasonably, he’s probably hoping he can funnel himself to the Yankees, Mets, or Phillies, all of whom may be in the third baseman market, and all of whom are stronger looking organizations than the Astros project to be over the next three seasons. You probably can add the Red Sox to that list.
The purported terms of the deal the Astros had put the cart before the horse with the Cardinals had the Redbirds paying off some of Arenado’s deal to get rid of the rest of the money from their books, leaving the Astros on the hook for three years and 45 million dollars or so. Three years at 15 mil per for a guy in serious decline over the last two years and who turns 34 years old in April? No thanks. That would be bolting shut the door shut on Alex Bregman. Maybe that should read further bolting shut the door.
Consider the following, with which I made my Stone Cold ‘Stros podcast compadres recoil in horror this week:
In 2024 Nolan Arenado had 578 at bats and produced 39 extra base hits.
In 2023 Jose Abreu had 540 at bats and produced 42 extra base hits.
It’s not advanced calculus. The abysmal Abreu had fewer ABs than Arenado yet delivered more extra base hits. Check please! Granted, while Abreu was also generally feeble defensively at first base, Arenado is still a solid glove man at the hot corner, though not the guy who won Gold Gloves the first ten seasons of his career. But you get the point. The 2024 Astro most comparable offensively to Arenado for time played...Jon Singleton.
In the Kyle Tucker trade the Astros acquired Isaac Paredes who is best suited defensively to play third. The highest hope of return in the deal is Cam Smith, a third baseman by trade, though he may wind up at first base or in the outfield. There is also Brice Matthews to consider. Maybe Matthews winds up succeeding Jeremy Pena at shortstop. Or maybe he better projects as a third baseman.
Taking on three years of Arenado and blocking prospects would be silly. Moving him to first base would diminish his defensive value. At his 15 million dollar salary Arenado will make within a couple million of what Tucker projects to make in 2025 via salary arbitration. This with Arenado not half the player Tucker is presently. Although his offensive numbers are inflated from his eight seasons playing in the hitting haven that is Denver (career OPS at Coors Field is .982, everywhere else .795), Arenado is a very legitimate Hall of Fame candidate. He’s been a better player over his career than Bregman has been over his. But in neither 2023 nor 2024 was Arenado as good as Bregman. There’s little reason to think Arenado will be the better player in 2025. Obviously the pay grade would be significantly different but it would be an interesting (nicer word for it) look for the Astros to take on a declined player for his age 34, 35, and 36 seasons, while they got all squirrely over paying Kyle Tucker beyond his age 33 season (Tucker has six seasons to play before he turns 34). Arenado is one of numerous reasons why the Astros reasonably see it as stretching to the limit in offering Bregman six years through his age 36 season.
The Astros are trying to thread the needle of staying competitive (which doesn’t require excellence in the American League West) while ideally getting the payroll below the Competitive Balance Tax thresholds. It’s not as if Jim Crane is being a payroll cheapskate. The Astros presently project to be in the top eight in CBT payroll. The 2025 Astros will suffer because of the financial dead weights that are Abreu, Rafael Montero, and to large if not full extents Lance McCullers and Cristian Javier. At least neither the Mariners nor Rangers have done anything to their roster that moves the needle. They still could, but haven’t yet.
For Texans’ conversation, catch Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and me on our Texans On Tap podcasts. Thursdays feature a preview of the upcoming game, and then we go live (then available on demand) after the final gun of the game: Texans on Tap - YouTube
The Astros are always in season for discussion. Our Stone Cold ‘Stros podcasts drop Mondays: Click here to watch!