THE Z REPORT
Lance Zierlein: Value picks for your NFL fantasy drafts
Aug 22, 2018, 6:34 am
Jimmy Garappolo has some value. San Francisco 49ers
I’ve been a long-time radio host here in Houston, but there are people around the country who know me as an NFL draft writer for NFL.com. What most of those people don’t realize (and many here in Houston if my guess is correct) is that I’ve also been an NFL fantasy football writer for the Houston Chronicle, Rotoworld, and FantasyGuru.com.
I have a feel for how successful NFL general managers draft and for how successful fantasy owners draft. While the methodology may be different, there is an underlying truth that exists in both realms. Drafting well with your earliest picks gives you a good chance to be a playoff team, but excelling in the middle rounds of a draft is often the key to building a championship team.
The word “sleeper” gets thrown around quite a bit and I’ve found that different people have different definitions of what a sleeper really is. Instead, I’m going to give you some “value” picks that you should be keeping your eyes on for your fantasy drafts and auctions.
* The ADP (average draft positioning) of each player is based upon a 12-team, PPR league and was found on FantasyFootballCalculator.com
Quarterbacks
Jimmy Garoppolo, SF, ninth round: Garoppolo generated some heat at the end of last season by going 6-0 to end the year, but his touchdown production was underwhelming during that stretch. However, if you plan on waiting for a quarterback, it might make sense to grab a Kyle Shanahan coached player. Matt Schaub (2009) finished fourth in fantasy scoring at QB, Robert Griffin, III (2012) finished fifth, and Matt Ryan (2016) finished second. The 49ers are an average bunch at best at WR, but Shanahan has a great feel for putting his QBs in position to succeed.
Running Back
Kenyan Drake, MIA, fourth round: While some may not see the fourth round as “value” round, Drake has been coming off the board at around the 20th RB spot. Over his last two games of 2017, Drake wowed head coach Adam Gase with 56 touches for 334 yards. Sure, he’s got Frank Gore, who will be getting some work as well, but Drake is clearly the more explosive player on the ground and through the air and it should show up this season.
Wide Receivers / Tight Ends
Trent Taylor, SF, Late Round/Undrafted: Taylor will be flying under the radar in most leagues, but it was obvious from the 49ers practices against the Texans that Garoppolo is in love with his safety blanket, Taylor, from the slot. Don’t be shocked if Taylor becomes the most targeted receiver on the team and a sneaky effective option in PPR leagues.
Calvin Ridley, ATL, 10th round: While Ridley has been going in the 10th/11th round in many drafts, he could come off the board just a little bit earlier in some leagues due to his name value out of Alabama. To be honest, I think he could be a value pick beyond the eighth round. Ridley has homerun long speed and has game-ready route running skills that should translate into open opportunities. With much attention expected to head Julio Jones’ way from defenses, Ridley could make real noise - even as a rookie.
David Njoku, CLE, ninth round: I will admit that while many owners like to target the top tier tight ends relatively early in the draft, I prefer to search for value with ascending tight end talent in the back half of the draft. Njoku fits that mold. Njoku played in all 16 games, but started just five and yet still managed to finish with 32 catches for 386 yards and 4 TDs. Both Tyrod Taylor and Baker Mayfield have shown a willingness to target tight ends in the past which should bode well for Njoku’s rise into the top eight TEs in the fantasy world.
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A new challenge awaits, and the Astros know what’s at stake
Jun 27, 2025, 2:05 pm
The Houston Astros didn’t just sweep the Philadelphia Phillies. They sent a message.
In three tightly contested games against one of the best teams in baseball, the Astros leaned on their elite pitching and timely offense to secure a statement sweep. Hunter Brown was electric in the finale, shutting down the Phillies’ lineup and showing the kind of dominance that’s become a defining feature of his game. Bryan Abreu slammed the door with four strikeouts to close out the win, and rookie Cam Smith delivered the deciding blow — an RBI single in the eighth to drive in Isaac Paredes, lifting the Astros to a 2-1 victory.
It wasn’t a series filled with offensive fireworks, but that’s exactly the point. Both teams sent out top-tier pitching throughout the series, and Houston was the team that kept finding a way. For much of the season, the Astros’ inconsistent offense might’ve been a concern in a series like this. But this time, it felt different. The bats showed up just enough, and the pitching did the rest.
Now, with Houston on pace for 96 wins at the halfway point, the question becomes: Is the league officially on notice?
Maybe. Maybe not. But one thing is certain, the Astros have the third-best record in baseball, they’re 17-7 in one-run games, and they’re playing with the kind of rhythm that’s defined their near-decade of dominance. Unlike last year’s uneven campaign, this version of the Astros looks like a team that’s rediscovered its edge. Whether or not they need to take care of business against the Cubs to validate it, their recent run leaves little doubt: when Houston is clicking, there are very few teams built to stop them.
Off the field, however, a bit of long-term uncertainty is starting to creep in. Reports surfaced this week that extension talks with shortstop Jeremy Peña have been put on hold as he recently signed with super-agent Scott Boras. The combination has led many to wonder if Peña might follow the same free-agent path as Alex Bregman, Carlos Correa, and others before him. Boras clients rarely settle early, and Peña, now one of the most valuable shortstops in the game, could command a price tag the Astros have historically avoided paying.
If Peña and even Hunter Brown are likely to get priced out of Houston, the front office may need to pivot. Isaac Paredes could be the most logical extension candidate on the roster. His approach — particularly his ability to pull the ball with authority — is tailor-made for Daikin Park and the Crawford Boxes. Last year, Paredes struggled to leave the yard at Wrigley Field, but in Houston, he’s thriving. Locking him in long term would give the Astros offensive stability and the kind of value they’ve typically targeted.
As for Cam Smith, the breakout rookie is far from free agency and will remain a cost-controlled piece for years. That’s exactly why his contributions now, like his clutch eighth-inning knock to beat Philadelphia, matter so much. He's one more reason why the Astros don’t just look good right now. They look dangerous.
And the rest of the league is starting to feel it.
There's so much more to get to! Don't miss the video below as we examine the topics above and much, much more!
The MLB season is finally upon us! Join Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and Charlie Pallilo for the Stone Cold ‘Stros podcast which drops each Monday afternoon, with an additional episode now on Thursday.
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