THE Z REPORT
Lance Zierlein: Value picks for your NFL fantasy drafts
Aug 22, 2018, 6:34 am
Jimmy Garappolo has some value. San Francisco 49ers
I’ve been a long-time radio host here in Houston, but there are people around the country who know me as an NFL draft writer for NFL.com. What most of those people don’t realize (and many here in Houston if my guess is correct) is that I’ve also been an NFL fantasy football writer for the Houston Chronicle, Rotoworld, and FantasyGuru.com.
I have a feel for how successful NFL general managers draft and for how successful fantasy owners draft. While the methodology may be different, there is an underlying truth that exists in both realms. Drafting well with your earliest picks gives you a good chance to be a playoff team, but excelling in the middle rounds of a draft is often the key to building a championship team.
The word “sleeper” gets thrown around quite a bit and I’ve found that different people have different definitions of what a sleeper really is. Instead, I’m going to give you some “value” picks that you should be keeping your eyes on for your fantasy drafts and auctions.
* The ADP (average draft positioning) of each player is based upon a 12-team, PPR league and was found on FantasyFootballCalculator.com
Quarterbacks
Jimmy Garoppolo, SF, ninth round: Garoppolo generated some heat at the end of last season by going 6-0 to end the year, but his touchdown production was underwhelming during that stretch. However, if you plan on waiting for a quarterback, it might make sense to grab a Kyle Shanahan coached player. Matt Schaub (2009) finished fourth in fantasy scoring at QB, Robert Griffin, III (2012) finished fifth, and Matt Ryan (2016) finished second. The 49ers are an average bunch at best at WR, but Shanahan has a great feel for putting his QBs in position to succeed.
Running Back
Kenyan Drake, MIA, fourth round: While some may not see the fourth round as “value” round, Drake has been coming off the board at around the 20th RB spot. Over his last two games of 2017, Drake wowed head coach Adam Gase with 56 touches for 334 yards. Sure, he’s got Frank Gore, who will be getting some work as well, but Drake is clearly the more explosive player on the ground and through the air and it should show up this season.
Wide Receivers / Tight Ends
Trent Taylor, SF, Late Round/Undrafted: Taylor will be flying under the radar in most leagues, but it was obvious from the 49ers practices against the Texans that Garoppolo is in love with his safety blanket, Taylor, from the slot. Don’t be shocked if Taylor becomes the most targeted receiver on the team and a sneaky effective option in PPR leagues.
Calvin Ridley, ATL, 10th round: While Ridley has been going in the 10th/11th round in many drafts, he could come off the board just a little bit earlier in some leagues due to his name value out of Alabama. To be honest, I think he could be a value pick beyond the eighth round. Ridley has homerun long speed and has game-ready route running skills that should translate into open opportunities. With much attention expected to head Julio Jones’ way from defenses, Ridley could make real noise - even as a rookie.
David Njoku, CLE, ninth round: I will admit that while many owners like to target the top tier tight ends relatively early in the draft, I prefer to search for value with ascending tight end talent in the back half of the draft. Njoku fits that mold. Njoku played in all 16 games, but started just five and yet still managed to finish with 32 catches for 386 yards and 4 TDs. Both Tyrod Taylor and Baker Mayfield have shown a willingness to target tight ends in the past which should bode well for Njoku’s rise into the top eight TEs in the fantasy world.
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It’s May 1, and the Astros are turning heads—but not for the reasons anyone expected. Their resurgence, driven not by stars like Yordan Alvarez or Christian Walker, but by a cast of less-heralded names, is writing a strange and telling early-season story.
Christian Walker, brought in to add middle-of-the-order thump, has yet to resemble the feared hitter he was in Arizona. Forget the narrative of a slow starter—he’s never looked like this in April. Through March and April of 2025, he’s slashing a worrying .196/.277/.355 with a .632 OPS. Compare that to the same stretch in 2024, when he posted a .283 average, .496 slug, and a robust .890 OPS, and it becomes clear: this is something more than rust. Even in 2023, his April numbers (.248/.714 OPS) looked steadier.
What’s more troubling than the overall dip is when it’s happening. Walker is faltering in the biggest moments. With runners in scoring position, he’s hitting just .143 over 33 plate appearances, including 15 strikeouts. The struggles get even more glaring with two outs—.125 average, .188 slugging, and a .451 OPS in 19 such plate appearances. In “late and close” situations, when the pressure’s highest, he’s practically disappeared: 1-for-18 with a .056 average and a .167 OPS.
His patience has waned (only 9 walks so far, compared to 20 by this time last year), and for now, his presence in the lineup feels more like a placeholder than a pillar.
The contrast couldn’t be clearer when you look at José Altuve—long the engine of this franchise—who, in 2024, delivered in the moments Walker is now missing. With two outs and runners in scoring position, Altuve hit .275 with an .888 OPS. In late and close situations, he thrived with a .314 average and .854 OPS. That kind of situational excellence is missing from this 2025 squad—but someone else may yet step into that role.
And yet—the Astros are winning. Not because of Walker, but in spite of him.
Houston’s offense, in general, hasn’t lit up the leaderboard. Their team OPS ranks 23rd (.667), their slugging 25th (.357), and they sit just 22nd in runs scored (117). They’re 26th in doubles, a rare place for a team built on gap-to-gap damage.
But where there’s been light, it hasn’t come from the usual spots. Jeremy Peña, often overshadowed in a lineup full of stars, now boasts the team’s highest OPS at .791 (Isaac Paredes is second in OPS) and is flourishing in his new role as the leadoff hitter. Peña’s balance of speed, contact, aggression, and timely power has given Houston a surprising tone-setter at the top.
Even more surprising: four Astros currently have more home runs than Yordan Alvarez.
And then there’s the pitching—Houston’s anchor. The rotation and bullpen have been elite, ranking 5th in ERA (3.23), 1st in WHIP (1.08), and 4th in batting average against (.212). In a season where offense is lagging and clutch hits are rare, the arms have made all the difference.
For now, it’s the unexpected contributors keeping Houston afloat. Peña’s emergence. A rock-solid pitching staff. Role players stepping up in quiet but crucial ways. They’re not dominating, but they’re grinding—and in a sluggish AL West, that may be enough.
Walker still has time to find his swing. He showed some signs of life against Toronto and Detroit. If he does, the Astros could become dangerous. If he doesn’t, the turnaround we’re witnessing will be credited to a new cast of unlikely faces. And maybe, that’s the story that needed to be written.
We have so much more to discuss. Don't miss the video below as we examine the topics above and much, much more!
The MLB season is finally upon us! Join Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and Charlie Pallilo for the Stone Cold ‘Stros podcast which drops each Monday afternoon, with an additional episode now on Thursday!
*ChatGPT assisted.
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