THE Z REPORT
Lance Zierlein: What would this year's draft look like if the Texans had not traded up for Deshaun Watson in 2017?
Lance Zierlein
Apr 18, 2018, 8:27 am
What if the Texans had not traded up for Deshaun Watson? Tim Warner/Getty Images
Deshaun Watson was electrifying in a very short sample size. Deshaun Watson threw for 19 touchdowns in seven games and 18 in his six starts. The Texans offense never scored less than 33 points in any of Watson’s final five starts before he was felled by a season-ending knee injury. Deshaun Watson’s six game run as a starter was the most productive of any quarterback in the league during that time. Deshaun Watson is our quarterback!
But what if he wasn’t?
What if Rick Smith never pulled the trigger on the trade that sent the Texans 2018 first round draft pick to Cleveland in exchange for the pick that eventually became Deshaun Watson? Let’s roll back the clock and take peek into what might have been if the Texans hadn’t taken Watson and still had a first round pick this year.
The Texans draft a tackle
I poured through my old notes on Texans needs in 2017 and which players were potential fits for them at pick #25. With the right tackle spot in flux and with Duane Brown’s contract an issue, I believe the Texans would have drafted Ryan Ramczyk from the Wisconsin.
Ramczyk could have projected as an early right tackle starter with the potential to move the left tackle. Or, the Texans may have seen him as a future guard if things didn’t work well at tackle. In any case, he would have likely been a starter all season long just as he was for the Saints.
But what would they have done at quarterback? It would have been Tom Savage. Duh. Sure, they may have added another quarterback to complete for the starting position, but I’m sure it wouldn’t have mattered. The defense would have had the same issues, there would have been the same Duane Brown issue and the offensive line wouldn’t have been good enough. In other words, they still would have been drafting about fourth.
The mythical 2018 debates
In this scenario, the Texans would still be in Quarterback Purgatory and this entire draft run-up would have been a sh*t-show of sports talk, message boards and Twitter arguments about this draft pick:.
Trade up: There would be a contingent of Texans fans/media who would have demanded that the Texans do everything in their power to move to the #1 spot and draft Sam Darnold. The Texans don’t have a second round pick so it would have likely cost them next year’s first rounder and maybe one other 3rd round pick.
Best available: While everyone would clearly be in full panic mode regarding the quarterbacks, there would definitely be a group of fans who would argue vehemently that sitting tight and taking Saquon Barkley (if he’s there) would make life so much easier on whoever was at quarterback. If it wasn’t Barkley, fans would also argue that J.J. Watt’s best days may be behind him and taking Bradley Chubb to pair with Mercilus and Clowney means the Texans would potentially rival Jacksonville for most killer defensive front in the league.
To Josh or not to Josh: We all know that UCLA’s Josh Rosen is being hit for lack of coachability and lack of leadership skills. The football talent is clear. If the Texans had the fourth pick of the draft, there is no doubting that. Josh Allen has a monster arm, great size and good mobility, but his college production never matched all that raw talent. There is no doubt in my mind that debating “the Joshes” would be something that would happen on a daily basis with talk show hosts, writers, and social media.
Lamar Jackson hive: The most explosive player in this draft might be Lamar Jackson. In. This. Draft. There is no doubt in my mind that Baker Mayfield and Lamar Jackson would be the fan’s choice of who the pick should be. However, have you heard Lamar Jackson mentioned at #4 or anywhere inside the top ten for that matter? No. There are some viable reasons involving accuracy and concerns over his size considering how often he runs. I still believe that wouldn’t change the argument points regarding doing whatever the Texans had to in order to get Lamar Jackson.
Free agency run: The Texans obviously could have been in the running for Kirk Cousins. Could they have made a run at trading for Nick Foles? Absolutely.
When it is all said and done, the draft would look like:
Cleveland: Sam Darnold
NY Giants: Bradley Chub
NY Jets: Baker Mayfield
Houston: Josh Allen
Josh Allen or Deshaun Watson, Houston? Who ya got?
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There was a conversation Cleveland guard Donovan Mitchell had during training camp, the topic being all the teams that were generating the most preseason buzz in the Eastern Conference. Boston was coming off an NBA championship. New York got Karl-Anthony Towns. Philadelphia added Paul George.
The Cavs? Not a big topic in early October. And Mitchell fully understood why.
“What have we done?” Mitchell asked. “They don't talk about us. That's fine. We'll just hold ourselves to our standard.”
That approach seems to be working.
For the first time in 36 seasons — yes, even before the LeBron James eras in Cleveland — the Cavaliers are atop the NBA at the 25-game mark. They're 21-4, having come back to earth a bit following a 15-0 start but still better than anyone in the league at this point.
“We've kept our standards pretty high,” Cavaliers coach Kenny Atkinson said. “And we keep it going.”
The Cavs are just one of the surprise stories that have emerged as the season nears the one-third-done mark. Orlando — the only team still unbeaten at home — is off to its best start in 16 years at 17-9 and having done most of that without All-Star forward Paolo Banchero. And Houston is 16-8, behind only the Cavs, Boston, Oklahoma City and Memphis so far in the race for the league's best record.
Cleveland was a playoff team a year ago, as was Orlando. And the Rockets planted seeds for improvement last year as well; an 11-game winning streak late in the season fueled a push where they finished 41-41 in a major step forward after a few years of rebuilding.
“We kind of set that foundation last year to compete with everybody,” Rockets coach Ime Udoka said. “Obviously, we had some ups and downs with winning and losing streaks at times, but to finish the season the way we did, getting to .500, 11-game winning streak and some close losses against high-level playoff teams, I think we kind of proved that to ourselves last year that that's who we're going to be.”
A sign of the respect the Rockets are getting: Oddsmakers at BetMGM Scorebook have made them a favorite in 17 of 24 games so far this season, after favoring them only 30 times in 82 games last season.
“Based on coaches, players, GMs, people that we all know what they're saying, it seems like everybody else is taking notice as well,” Udoka said.
They're taking notice of Orlando as well. The Magic lost their best player and haven't skipped a beat.
Banchero's injury after five games figured to doom Orlando for a while, and the Magic went 0-4 immediately after he tore his oblique. Entering Tuesday, they're 14-3 since — and now have to regroup yet again. Franz Wagner stepped into the best-player-on-team role when Banchero got hurt, and now Wagner is going to miss several weeks with the exact same injury.
Ask Magic coach Jamahl Mosley how the team has persevered, and he'll quickly credit everyone but himself. Around the league, it's Mosley getting a ton of the credit — and rightly so — for what Orlando is doing.
“I think that has to do a lot with Mose. ... I have known him a long time,” Phoenix guard Bradley Beal said. “A huge fan of his and what he is doing. It is a testament to him and the way they’ve built this team.”
The Magic know better than most how good Cleveland is, and vice versa. The teams went seven games in an Eastern Conference first-round series last spring, the Cavs winning the finale at home to advance to Round 2.
Atkinson was brought in by Cleveland to try and turn good into great. The job isn't anywhere near finished — nobody is raising any banners for “best record after 25 games” — but Atkinson realized fairly early that this Cavs team has serious potential.
“We’re so caught up in like the process of improve, improve, improve each game, improve each practice," Atkinson said. “That’s kind of my philosophy. But then you hit 10-0, and obviously the media starts talking and all that, and you’re like, ‘Man, this could be something special brewing here.’”