THE PALLILOG
Let's discuss the most intriguing subplots of Rockets vs. Thunder
Aug 14, 2020, 9:18 am
Composite image by Jack Brame.
Last week in this space I wrote that if planning on winning the short season American League West title the Astros were strongly advised to not get swept in Oakland. They then proceeded to get swept in Oakland. Now after taking two out of three from a bad Giants' team the Astros enter the weekend at 8-10, four and a half games behind the Athletics and presently not even in a Wild Card position. The Astros remain a pretty solid pick to make the eight team AL tournament, but it has been jarring to see them reduced from their superpower status of the last three years to a mediocre squad. Hey, no team would simply roll on after losing its two dominant starting pitchers as the Astros did with Gerrit Cole leaving for the Yankees and then Justin Verlander lasting one start. Add in a decimated bullpen, a thus far awful Jose Altuve, George Springer having missed time to injury and not hitting his weight, and with this season's playoff format 8-10 is nowhere near the end of the world.
The Astros get the lousy Mariners for a three game series this weekend at Minute Maid Park. While it's a tough standard to say anything short of a sweep would be a disappointment, anything short of a sweep would be a disappointment. Certainly with regard to hopes of winning the West. The Astros have seven head-to-head matchups remaining with the A's.
Countdown to liftoff for Rockets vs. Thunder
Speaking of disappointing, what a buzzkill that thanks to a quad strain Russell Westbrook seemingly won't answer the bell for the Rockets to start the playoffs Tuesday. The hope is Westbrook misses no more than one game, and with basically round the clock treatment through the weekend maybe not that. It's simple: with Westbrook the Rockets are slight favorites over Chris Paul and the Oklahoma City Thunder, without him they are underdogs.
The Thunder may also be down a starting guard to start the series after rookie Luguentz Dort sprained a knee Wednesday. That's a vastly lesser loss than Westbrook for the Rockets, but it's a loss. Until his injury Dort started 28 straight games for OKC. He's a well-built tough defender who would take some of the defensive minutes trying to make James Harden's life more difficult. The Thunder backcourt is still strong. Paul had a terrific season and the four and a half month layoff wasn't a bad thing for his now 35-year-old legs which have betrayed CP3 at the end of full uninterrupted seasons in the past. Second year man 22-year-old Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is closing in on all-star level and is the Thunder's leading scorer. Dennis Schroeder is deserving of the Sixth Man of the Year Award.
In the frontcourt Danilo Galinari is very good and very key. We may look back and say whoever had the better series between Gallinari and Robert Covington is on the team headed to the second round. Getting Gilgeous-Alexander, Gallinari, and multiple first round picks in the Paul George to the Clippers trade was magnificent work by Thunder General Manager Sam Presti who is one of the best in the business. Coming into the season exactly no one would have predicted the Thunder to be as good as the Rockets. They have been, including taking the season series 2-1.
Weakness vs. weakness is one of the many subplots of Rockets vs. Thunder. The downsized Rockets are a lousy rebounding team. Giving up second chance opportunities and baskets has been a real problem. The Thunder has a legit big in center Steven Adams, but nonetheless ranks dead last in offensive rebounding percentage.
Another subplot: is Mike D'Antoni coaching for his job in this series? D'Antoni's contract is up at season's end. If the Rockets postseason graph reads 2018 Western Conference Final, 2019 Western Conference Semifinal, 2020 Western Conference out in the first round, how enthused would Tilman Fertitta be about re-upping D'Antoni at an upper tier salary? Despite the unusual circumstances under which this season is playing out, if the Rockets get bounced in the first round the season is an epic failure, the Westbrook for Paul trade looks bad, and the future would not look very bright. Flip the coin with a Rockets' series win, and we have a very interesting presumptive second round Rockets-Lakers matchup to savor.
With only a couple of arenas being used in the Orlando "bubble" there will be weekday matinee games through the first round. No way the Lakers or Clippers would be slotted in those. Rockets-Thunder play game one at 5:30 (Central time) Tuesday, game two 2:30 Thursday, game four 3:00 the following Monday.
Buzzer Beaters:
1. The Texans put on the pads for the first time Friday, inside four weeks to the September 10 season opener at Kansas City.
2. Of course most college football players want to play. They don't (and shouldn't) get to make the decision for institutions. And enough from coaches disingenuously spewing "it's all about the kids."
3. Best sherbet flavors on a blistering hot day: Bronze-lime Silver-orange Gold-watermelon
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With the Astros now officially ten games under .500 for the season, manager Joe Espada is taking a lot of heat from the fanbase for the team's struggles.
While we don't agree with the sentiment, we even hear fans clamoring for the return of Dusty Baker and Martin Maldonado, thinking the Astros wouldn't be in this mess if they were still here.
Which is ridiculous. First of all, Maldonado has been awful for the White Sox, hitting .048 (even worse than Jose Abreu's .065). And for those of you that think his work with the pitching staff justifies his pathetic offense. Let me say this: Where was Maldy's game calling genius for Hunter Brown, Cristian Javier, and Framber Valdez last year? All of them regressed significantly.
And as far as Baker is concerned, we have no idea how much a difference he would make, we can only speculate. Baker would also be dealing with a pitching staff ravaged with injuries. And let's not forget, Baker was the guy that refused to move Jose Abreu down in the batting order, even though he would finish the regular season with the ninth-worst OPS in baseball.
The reality of the situation is managers can only do so much in baseball. Which leads us to something else that needs to be considered. Is Espada being handcuffed by the front office? Espada and GM Dana Brown both said recently that Jon Singleton was going to get more at-bats while they give Abreu time off to try to figure things out. Yet, there Abreu was in the lineup again in the opening game of the Cubs series.
It makes us wonder how much power does Espada truly have? The Astros have some other options at first base. Yainer Diaz may only have eight games played at the position, but how much worse could he be than Abreu defensively? Abreu already has four errors, and Diaz is obviously a way better hitter. Victor Caratini isn't considered a plus offensive player, but his .276 batting average makes him look like Babe Ruth compared to Abreu. Let him catch more often and play Diaz at first. Starting Diaz at first more often could also lengthen his career long-term.
Maybe that's too wild of a move. Okay, fine. How about playing Mauricio Dubon at first base? I understand he doesn't have much experience at that position, but what's the downside of trying him there? If he can play shortstop, he can play first base. He's driving in runs at a higher rate (11 RBIs) than everyone on the team outside of Kyle Tucker and Yordan Alvarez. And he's producing like that as part-time player right now.
The other criticism we see of Espada is his use of Jon Singleton to pinch hit late in games. Let's be real, though, who else does Espada have on the roster to go to? Batting Abreu late in games in which you're trailing should be considered malpractice. Espada can only use who he has to work with. This all really stems from the Astros poor farm system.
They don't have anyone else to turn to. The draft picks the club lost from the sign-stealing scandal are really hurting them right now. First and second rounders from 2020 and 2021 should be helping you in 2024 at the big league level.
Maybe they go to Astros prospect Joey Loperfido soon, but after a hot start he has only two hits in his last six games.
Finally, we have to talk about what seems like a committee making baseball decisions. Lost in a committee is accountability. Who gets the blame for making poor decisions?
As time continues to pass it looks like moving on from former GM James Click was a massive mistake. He's the guy that didn't sign Abreu, but did trade Myles Straw (recently DFA'd) for Yainer Diaz and Phil Maton. He also built an elite bullpen without breaking the bank, and helped the club win a World Series in 2022.
The reality of the situation is Dusty Baker and James Click are not walking back through that door. And all good runs come to an end at some point. Is this what we're witnessing?
Don't miss the video above as we hit on all the points discussed and much more!
Catch Stone Cold 'Stros (an Astros podcast) with Charlie Pallilo, Brandon Strange, and Josh Jordan. We drop two episodes every week on SportsMapHouston's YouTube channel. You can also listen on Apple Podcast, Spotifyor wherever you get your podcasts.