THE PALLILOG
Let's discuss who will be the Astros' best offensive player this season
Apr 2, 2021, 12:21 pm
The Astros hammered the A's on Opening Day. Composite image by Jack Brame.
Even if the biggest Astros' homer ever, I presume you don't have them going 162-0 this season. But if you do, one down 161 to go! For the record put me down for 91 wins to edge out the A's for a reclaiming of the American League West title.
Who will be the Astros' best offensive player this season? Alex Bregman seems the most logical guess. He has two monster seasons to his name and is just 27 years old. Carlos Correa turns 27 in September. He's had zero monster full seasons, but has the talent for one and with free agency looming Correa could not be more incentivized for a huge 2021. Jose Altuve turns 31 next month. His best seasons are quite likely behind him, but you know Altuve wants to reestablish his excellence after an awful short-season 2020. What numbers could a (cross your fingers) healthy Yordan Alvarez amass over a first full season? Michael Brantley is consistently outstanding, but only in 2014 did he have a season that would be in the hunt for Astros' offensive MVP this season.
Francisco Lindor signing a 10 year 341 million dollar extension with the Mets doesn't help the Astros' hope of keeping Correa beyond 2021. Correa's best baseball has been better than Lindor's best, but Lindor has been much more durable and consistent. Other than that new Mets' owner Steve Cohen is worth 14 billion dollars give or take, the Lindor contract is crazy. Teams shouldn't be forced to match other teams' daffiness, but Correa no doubt is using the Lindor deal as a benchmark for his own.
Final Four
What a day Saturday with the Houston Cougars playing the Baylor Bears at the Final Four for a spot in Monday night's National Championship game. Kelvin Sampson has done a much heralded beyond stupendous job with the Cougar program. What Scott Drew has built at Baylor is no less impressive, in some ways even more so. The Bears are the rightful favorites (by five points). Baylor was tested by much stiffer competition over the course of the season, and after its first round wipeout of Hartford Baylor has beaten a stouter slate of opponents to get to the Final Four.
Baylor is definitely the better shooting team, as a squad over 40 percent behind the three point line. The Cougars definitely will have to score better than they did in getting through Rutgers, Syracuse, and Oregon State. It's certainly possible that Marcus Sasser and Quentin Grimes fill it up from deep. Consistently getting shots is a must. Baylor's defense is much better than what UH has seen to date. The Bears took control of their wins over Villanova and Arkansas with runs sparked by multiple forced turnovers. For all of Baylor's strengths it's not a great rebounding team. The Coogs have pummeled opponents with their offensive rebounding.
Geez, does UH even stand a chance? Of course it does. In a best of seven series the Bears would be a clear choice over the Cougars. In a best of one you never know.
By the same token yes 11th seed UCLA has a chance vs. Gonzaga. The 30-0 Bulldogs look unbeatable. They are not unbeatable. Even if they finish the job with two more wins to become the first undefeated national champion since Indiana in 1976, there's a distinction between unbeaten and unbeatable. In 1991 defending champ UNLV was unbeaten and appeared unbeatable. Duke took down the Runnin' Rebels in the semifinals. In 2015 Kentucky was 38-0 before losing its semifinal game with Wisconsin. The 14 point underdog Bruins are unlikely to shock Gonzaga, but that's why it happening would be a shocker! And shockers happen. Just as UH almost certainly would not have a 28-3 record had it played in the Big 10 or Big 12 this season, Gonzaga would almost certainly not own a perfect resume if it played in a deep power conference instead of the West Coast Conference.
Rocket science
The Rockets' ugly slog toward the lottery has had a productive week. They've lost twice while Orlando has won twice, so the Rockets are now three and half games worse than the Magic which has the fourth worst record in the NBA. Reminder the Rockets need to finish in the bottom three of league standings to have their best shot at the top four draft pick necessary to avoid losing the pick.
Buzzer Beaters:
1. So Roy Williams retired at North Carolina. Kelvin Sampson attended the University of North Carolina…
2. Calm down Cougar fans. UNC-Pembroke for Sampson, not Chapel Hill. Never say never I guess, but he's not leaving UH off a Final Four appearance.
3. Good Friday movies: Bronze-Freaky Friday Silver-Friday Gold-Friday Night Lights
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Astros keep doing this, and it’s getting hard to ignore
Jun 25, 2025, 10:01 pm
While the rolling Astros have a week of possible World Series preview matchups against the Phillies and Cubs, it’s the Rockets who made the biggest local sports headline with their acquisition of Kevin Durant. What a move! Of course there is risk involved in trading for a guy soon to turn 37 years old and who carries an injury history, but balancing risk vs. reward is a part of the game. This is a fabulous move for the Rockets. It’s understood that there are dissenters to this view. Everyone is entitled to an opinion, including people with the wrong opinion! Let’s dig in.
The Rockets had a wonderful season in winning 52 games before their disappointing first-round playoff loss to the Warriors, but like everyone else in the Western Conference, they were nowhere close to Oklahoma City’s caliber. While they finished second in the West, the Rockets only finished four games ahead of the play-in. That letting the stew simmer with further growth among their young players would yield true championship contention was no given for 2025-26 or beyond.
Kevin Durant is one of the 10 greatest offensive players the NBA has ever seen. Among his current contemporaries only Stephen Curry and Nikola Jokic make that list. For instance, Durant offensively has clearly been better than the late and legendary Kobe Bryant. To view it from a Houston perspective, Durant has been an indisputably greater offensive force than the amazing Hakeem Olajuwon. But this is not a nostalgia trip in which the Rockets are trading for a guy based on what he used to be. While Durant could hit the wall at any point, living in fear that it’s about to happen is no way to live because KD, approaching his 18th NBA season, is still an elite offensive player.
As to the durability concern, Durant played more games (62) this past season than did Fred VanVleet, Jabari Smith, and Tari Eason. The season before he played more games (75) than did VanVleet, Dillon Brooks, and Alperen Sengun. In each of the last two seasons Durant averaged more minutes per game (36.9) than any Rocket. That was stupid and/or desperate of the Suns, the Rockets will be smarter. Not that the workload eroded Durant’s production or efficiency. Over the two seasons he averaged almost 27 points per game while shooting 52 percent from the floor, 42 percent from behind the three-point line, and 85 percent from the free throw line. Awesomeness. The Rockets made the leap to being a very good team despite a frankly crummy half-court offense. The Rockets ranked 21st among the 30 NBA teams in three-point percentage, and dead last in free throw percentage. Amen Thompson has an array of skills and looks poised to be a unique star. Alas, Thompson has no credible jump shot. VanVleet is not a creator, Smith has limited handle. Adding Durant directly addresses the Rockets’ most glaring weakness.
The price the Rockets paid was in the big picture, minimal, unless you think Jalen Green is going to become a bonafide star. Green is still just 23 years old and spectacular athletically, but nothing he has done over four pro seasons suggests he’s on the cusp of greatness. In no season has Green even shot the league average from the floor or from three. His defense has never been as good as it should be given his athleticism. Compared to some other two-guards who made the NBA move one year removed from high school, four seasons into his career Green is waaaaaay behind where Shae Gilgeous-Alexander, Anthony Edwards, and Devin Booker were four seasons in, and now well behind his draft classmate Cade Cunningham. Dillon Brooks was a solid pro in two seasons here and shot a career-best from three in 2024-2025, but he’s being replaced by Kevin Durant! In terms of the draft pick capital sent to Phoenix, five second round picks are essentially meaningless. The Rockets have multiple extra first round picks in the coming years. As for the sole first-rounder dealt away, whichever player the Rockets would have taken 10th Wednesday night would have been rather unlikely to crack the playing rotation.
VanVleet signs extension
Re-signing Fred VanVleet to a two-year, 50 million dollar guarantee is sensible. In a vacuum, VanVleet was substantially overpaid at the over 40 mil he made per season the last two. He’s a middle-of-the-pack starting point guard. But his professionalism and headiness brought major value to the Rockets’ kiddie corps while their payroll was otherwise very low. Ideally, Reed Sheppard makes a leap to look like an NBA lead guard in his second season, after a pretty much zippo of a rookie campaign. Sheppard is supposed to be a lights-out shooter. For the Rockets to max out, they need two sharpshooters on the court to balance Thompson’s presence.
For Astro-centric conversation, join Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and me for the Stone Cold ‘Stros podcast which drops each Monday afternoon, with an additional episode now on Thursday. Click here to catch!
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