THE PALLILOG

Let's discuss who will be the Astros' best offensive player this season

Astros Yordan Alvarez, Jose Altuve, Alex Bregman
The Astros hammered the A's on Opening Day. Composite image by Jack Brame.

Even if the biggest Astros' homer ever, I presume you don't have them going 162-0 this season. But if you do, one down 161 to go! For the record put me down for 91 wins to edge out the A's for a reclaiming of the American League West title.

Who will be the Astros' best offensive player this season? Alex Bregman seems the most logical guess. He has two monster seasons to his name and is just 27 years old. Carlos Correa turns 27 in September. He's had zero monster full seasons, but has the talent for one and with free agency looming Correa could not be more incentivized for a huge 2021. Jose Altuve turns 31 next month. His best seasons are quite likely behind him, but you know Altuve wants to reestablish his excellence after an awful short-season 2020. What numbers could a (cross your fingers) healthy Yordan Alvarez amass over a first full season? Michael Brantley is consistently outstanding, but only in 2014 did he have a season that would be in the hunt for Astros' offensive MVP this season.

Francisco Lindor signing a 10 year 341 million dollar extension with the Mets doesn't help the Astros' hope of keeping Correa beyond 2021. Correa's best baseball has been better than Lindor's best, but Lindor has been much more durable and consistent. Other than that new Mets' owner Steve Cohen is worth 14 billion dollars give or take, the Lindor contract is crazy. Teams shouldn't be forced to match other teams' daffiness, but Correa no doubt is using the Lindor deal as a benchmark for his own.

Final Four

What a day Saturday with the Houston Cougars playing the Baylor Bears at the Final Four for a spot in Monday night's National Championship game. Kelvin Sampson has done a much heralded beyond stupendous job with the Cougar program. What Scott Drew has built at Baylor is no less impressive, in some ways even more so. The Bears are the rightful favorites (by five points). Baylor was tested by much stiffer competition over the course of the season, and after its first round wipeout of Hartford Baylor has beaten a stouter slate of opponents to get to the Final Four.

Baylor is definitely the better shooting team, as a squad over 40 percent behind the three point line. The Cougars definitely will have to score better than they did in getting through Rutgers, Syracuse, and Oregon State. It's certainly possible that Marcus Sasser and Quentin Grimes fill it up from deep. Consistently getting shots is a must. Baylor's defense is much better than what UH has seen to date. The Bears took control of their wins over Villanova and Arkansas with runs sparked by multiple forced turnovers. For all of Baylor's strengths it's not a great rebounding team. The Coogs have pummeled opponents with their offensive rebounding.

Geez, does UH even stand a chance? Of course it does. In a best of seven series the Bears would be a clear choice over the Cougars. In a best of one you never know.

By the same token yes 11th seed UCLA has a chance vs. Gonzaga. The 30-0 Bulldogs look unbeatable. They are not unbeatable. Even if they finish the job with two more wins to become the first undefeated national champion since Indiana in 1976, there's a distinction between unbeaten and unbeatable. In 1991 defending champ UNLV was unbeaten and appeared unbeatable. Duke took down the Runnin' Rebels in the semifinals. In 2015 Kentucky was 38-0 before losing its semifinal game with Wisconsin. The 14 point underdog Bruins are unlikely to shock Gonzaga, but that's why it happening would be a shocker! And shockers happen. Just as UH almost certainly would not have a 28-3 record had it played in the Big 10 or Big 12 this season, Gonzaga would almost certainly not own a perfect resume if it played in a deep power conference instead of the West Coast Conference.

Rocket science

The Rockets' ugly slog toward the lottery has had a productive week. They've lost twice while Orlando has won twice, so the Rockets are now three and half games worse than the Magic which has the fourth worst record in the NBA. Reminder the Rockets need to finish in the bottom three of league standings to have their best shot at the top four draft pick necessary to avoid losing the pick.

Buzzer Beaters:

1. So Roy Williams retired at North Carolina. Kelvin Sampson attended the University of North Carolina…

2. Calm down Cougar fans. UNC-Pembroke for Sampson, not Chapel Hill. Never say never I guess, but he's not leaving UH off a Final Four appearance.

3. Good Friday movies: Bronze-Freaky Friday Silver-Friday Gold-Friday Night Lights

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Kyle Tucker and Alex Bregman are hot names at the Winter Meetings. Composite Getty Image.

The woeful state of the Astros' farm system has made it very expensive to continue maintaining a good team, prohibitively so (in part self-imposed) from having a great team. Even if they re-sign Alex Bregman, trading Framber Valdez and/or Kyle Tucker for prospects could snap the Astros' run of eight straight postseason appearances. But if they KNOW that no way do they intend to offer Framber five years 130 million dollars, Tucker 7/225 or whatever their free agent markets might be after next season, keeping them for 2025 but getting nothing but 2026 compensatory draft picks for them could do multi-year damage to the franchise.

The time is here for the Astros to be aggressively shopping both. It doesn't make trading them obligatory, but even though many purported top prospects amount to little or nothing (look up what the Astros traded to Detroit for Justin Verlander, to Pittsburgh for Gerrit Cole, to Arizona for Zack Greinke) if strong packages are offered the Astros need to act if unwilling (reasonably or not) to pay Valdez/Tucker.

Last offseason the Milwaukee Brewers traded pitching ace Corbin Burnes one season ahead of his free agency and then again won the National League Central, the San Diego Padres dealt Juan Soto and wound up much improved and a playoff team after missing the 2023 postseason. But nailing the trades is critical. The Brewers got their everyday rookie third baseman Joey Ortiz and two other prospects. The Padres got quality starter Michael King, catcher Kyle Hagashioka, and three prospects.

Back to Bregman

Meanwhile, decision time approaches for Alex Bregman. He, via agent Scott Boras, wants 200-plus million dollars. Don't we all. If he can land that from somebody, congratulations. The Astros' six-year 156 million dollar contract offer is more than fair. That's 26 million dollars per season and would take Bregman within a few months of his 37th birthday. If rounding up to 160 mil gets it done, ok I guess. Going to 200 would be silly.

While Bregman hasn't been a superstar (or even an All-Star) since 2019, he's still a very good player. That includes his 2024 season which showed decline offensively. Not falling off a cliff decline other than his walk rate plunging about 45 percent, but decline. If Bregman remains the exact player he was this season, six-156 is pricey but not crazy in the current marketplace. But how likely is Bregman to not drop off further in his mid-30s? As noted before, the storyline is bogus that Bregman has been a postseason monster. Over seven League Championship Series and four World Series Bregman has a .196 batting average.
The Astros already should be sweating some over Jose Altuve having shown marked decline this season, before his five year 125 million dollar extension covering 2025-2029 even starts. Altuve was still very good offensively though well down from 2022 and 2023 (defensively his data are now awful), but as he approaches turning 35 years old in May some concern is warranted when locked into paying a guy until he's nearly 39 1/2.

Jim Crane is right in noting that long contracts paying guys huge money in their later years generally go poorly for the clubs.

Bang for your buck

Cleveland third baseman Jose Ramirez is heading into the second year of a five-year, $124 million extension. That's 24.8 million dollars per season. Jose Ramirez is a clearly better player than Alex Bregman. Ramirez has been the better player for five consecutive seasons, and only in 2023 was it even close. It should be noted that Ramirez signed his extension in April of 2022. He is about a year and a half older than Bregman so the Guardians are paying their superstar through his age 36 season.

Bregman benefits from playing his home games at soon-to be named Daikin Park. Bregman hit 26 home runs this year. Using ball-tracking data, if he had played all his games in Houston, Bregman would have hit 31 homers. Had all his swings been taken at Yankee Stadium, the "Breggy Bomb" count would have been 25. In Cleveland, just 18. Ramirez hit 41 dingers. If all his games were home games 40 would have cleared the fences, if all had been at Minute Maid Park 47 would have been gone.

Matt Chapman recently signed a six-year 151 million dollar deal to stay with the San Francisco Giants. That's 25.166 million per season. Chapman was clearly a better player than Bregman this year. But it's the only season of Chapman's career that is the case. Chapman is 11 months older than Bregman, so his lush deal with the Giants carries through his age 37 season.

The Giants having overpaid Chapman doesn't obligate the Astros to do the same with Bregman. So, if you're the Astros do you accept overpaying Bregman? They would almost certainly be worse without him in 2025, but what about beyond? Again, having not one elite prospect in their minor league system boxes them in. Still, until/unless the Seattle Mariners upgrade their offense, the Astros cling to American League West favorites status. On the other hand, WITH Bregman, Tucker, and Valdez the Astros are no postseason lock.

For Texans’ conversation, catch Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and me on our Texans On Tap podcasts. Thursdays feature a preview of the upcoming game, and then we go live (then available on demand) after the final gun of the game: Texans on Tap - YouTube

The Astros are always in season for discussion. Our Stone Cold ‘Stros podcasts drop Mondays: Click here to watch!

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