MARTIN MALDONADO DEEP DIVE

Let's examine Martin Maldonado's value to the Astros in 2021

Should the Astros upgrade? Photo by Abbie Parr/Getty Images

Martin Maldonado completed the first year of his two-year, $7M contract with the Houston Astros in 2020. Maldonado got off to a hot start, especially for him. He slashed .259/.403/.448 in the month of August before cooling down the rest of the way. He had a couple of memorable moments at the plate in the playoffs, namely his performance off of Charlie Morton, but Maldonado really brings his value defensively.

The value of a catcher is tough to quantify. Sure there's framing statistics, but how valuable is framing? And how telling is the statistic really? Yes, there's caught stealing percentages, but teams have stealing down to a science, and they really only run when they are confident they can get the bag. Most of the value really isn't quantifiable. How does he handle a pitching staff? How well does he block the ball? How well does he know the scouting reports and opposing team's hitters? These all have more value than framing.

Long story short, the metrics actually don't love Maldonado as a defender. He's a below average pitch framer by nearly every site. Fangraphs has Maldonado at -2.1 in framing, worse than the average catcher. Baseball Savant has Maldonado in the 38th percentile of MLB catchers in framing.

Maldonado was +1 in rCERA, which is an adjusted catcher's ERA stat. Essentially Maldonado was one run above average compared to other catchers in his pitching staff's ERA. However, it's still a developing statistic that can't control lots of factors that are out of the catcher's control.

RPP is a statistic that tracks a catcher's blocking ability. Essentially, how many runs did a catcher save over a given season with his blocking ability. Again, Maldonado was a +1. Slightly above average, but barely.

Where Maldonado does stand out is his ability to control the running game. Pop Time numbers aren't available for 2020, but in 2019, Maldonado was 11th in MLB with a 1.96 average Pop Time. His arm resulted in a 2020 season where he threw out 6-of-19 base stealers (32%). The fact that teams only tried to run on Maldonado 19 times shows how much respect other teams have for his arm.

Essentially, the numbers say Maldonado may not be worth his reputation as an elite defender, but he's still good. He's elite at controlling the run game, and the fact that pitchers and Astros personnel trust him so much as a game caller speaks to his value at the part of his job that is the most important and simultaneously the most unquantifiable.

All that being said, Maldonado wasn't a zero with the bat in 2020…

Hard Hit % - 26.7%

Barrel % - 8.1%

K% - 30.9%

BB% - 16.4%

Chase% - 23.5%

(Above Numbers from 2020)

Almost all of the above numbers are statistical anomalies for Maldonado. The 26.7% Hard Hit % was 8% worse than last season and 4% worse than his career mark. His K% was 8% worse than last season and about 6% worse than his career mark.

However, his BB% nearly doubled from 2019, and it's more than double his career average. His Chase % was also 4% better than last year, and it continues a steady downward trend in Chase % since his 34.9% career high in 2018. The increased discipline resulted in a season where Maldonado had an 8.1% Barrel %, the best of his career, despite the steep drop in overall Hard Hit %.

Basically, Maldonado didn't hit the ball hard as much as he usually does, but he made up for it by hitting it as hard as he possibly could about ⅓ of the time he hit it hard. He struck out way more than usual, but he offset that with a massive spike in walks as well. The result? The second best .OPS of his career, and his best was when he was a rookie in 2012.

Maldonado's 110 wRC+ (Weighted Runs Created Plus) was actually 12th amongst catcher's with at least 100 Plate Appearances. The fact that the guy that was supposed to be the Astros worst hitter was 10% better than league average at run production is pretty insane. Is it sustainable?

It does seem that Maldonado got a tad lucky with his performance in 2020, but not by much. His .2016 xBA (Expected Batting Average) is a bit worse than his .215 actual batting average. His .362 xSLG is slightly behind his .378 actual .SLG. Lastly, his .295 BABIP ( Batting Average on Balls in Play) is an improvement on his career mark of .269.

That being said, almost all of Maldonado's numbers were way out of whack from his career norms, meaning that he may just be a different hitter. There are numbers that suggest Maldonado made an approach change in 2020.

Maldonado's GB% in 2020 was the lowest it's been in the Statcast Era. At 37.2%, it was an 11% decrease from 2019, and it's just a smidge below 10% of his career mark. Maldonado pulled the baseball 48.8% of the time in 2020, 7% more than last year, and 10% more than his career average. His 42.2% Swing % was a 3% decrease from last year, and it was the lowest it's been since 2016.

Remember how Maldonado's GB% decreased a bunch? Well, that decrease was almost entirely picked up by his LD%, which went from 21.2% to 33.7%. That would explain the increase in Barrel %. It also explains the increase in his average Launch Angle from 12.6° to 19.1°. Maldonado's Sweet Spot %, which puts a percentage on the number of balls that leave the bat between 8° and 32° but leaves exit velocity out of the equation, was 38.4%. 12.4% more than 2019, and 10% more than his career average.

What do all these numbers mean? It looks like Maldonado came to grips with the fact that he'll never be a high average guy and he'll always swing and miss a lot, so he's "keyholing" one spot that he knows he can drive and do damage with, and he's actually doing a pretty good job of executing. This type of approach means Maldonado will never hit much better than the .215 he did this year, but if he can compile high .OBP and .SLG while providing quality defense, then he's well worth his $3.5M price tag. The Astros could definitely find an upgrade if they felt like spending on one, but they don't need to by any means.

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Jeremy Pena could have some big shoes to fill. Photo by Eric Espada/Getty Images.

MLB and the MLBPA are embroiled in yet another labor dispute. The owners and players have both dug in their heels and refuse to budge. No end is in site for the lockout as Spring Training is drawing more and more near each passing day. So what does that mean for our 2022 Astros' season?

One sigh of relief came when Justin Verlander signed his new deal. Two years for $50 million dollars isn't bad at all. Factor in he's closer to my age than my son (coming off Tommy John surgery), and some may worry. Not me. He's the closest thing to Tom Brady MLB has seen since Nolan Ryan. Jim Crane and James Click did a great job bringing him back. His spot as the ace with the rest of the staff they have should help shore up the bullpen if one or two starters can make that transition. I know I said I didn't want him back a few months ago, but time has passed, and wounds have been healed.

When it comes to Carlos Correa, I'm growing more and more comfortable with the thought that he may not be back. I talked about his potential replacement months ago. Maybe the reason being is that the club loves Jeremy Peña at that same position, and Pedro Leon could also factor in. Plus, Peña is tearing the cover off the ball in the winter leagues.

At 24 years old, turning 25 in September, he'll be under team control for the foreseeable future. That truly depends on the new labor agreement. So does Correa's new contract. His contract will be largely based on the parameters set in the new labor agreement, since he didn't sign before the lockout took place. And now we know that contact will be negotiated by Correa's new agent, Scott Boras.

I'm all for the doom and gloom when it comes to an MLB labor issue because they've historically screwed over fans. The most notable and egregious was the '94 World Series being canceled. However, there's way too much money at stake right now. More money than ever to be exact. That said, it's precisely why there's a dispute. That, and the fact that the owners have always gotten over on fans and players, and the players are poised to get their just due.

When the season starts, the Astros should be contenders yet again. Don't look for them to come out the gate firing on all cylinders as this team may look a bit different. Guys may not be fully ready after a lockout and there will be some roster turnover. The bulk of the core will be here, ready, and healthy. Whether Correa is a part of that group remains to be seen. Am I concerned? Hell no! This team has enough to fill that void at least partially and will have either guy under team control for a while. Think about this upcoming season as the time you fixed up your older car. New tires, headlights restored, rims polished, inside made over, and a fresh coat of paint after the transmission rebuild. It still has over 150,000 miles on it, but you wouldn't trade it in for anything because it still runs well and has sentimental value. You know one day it'll give out and need to be put out to pasture, but you're holding on and riding until the wheels fall off. Enjoy Astro fans, because the ride will be over one day. Hopefully much later than sooner.

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