4th and a Mile with Paul Muth
Let's examine just how irreplaceable James Harden is to the Rockets
Dec 10, 2020, 1:15 pm
The numbers are very telling. Photo by Pool/Getty Images.
It's been a tumultuous offseason to say the least for the Rockets. One person's pain is another's pleasure, however. While the front office of the Toyota Center stresses out over their disgruntled superstar, NBA fans in general have been eating up the drama—buffet style (assuming those are still a thing).
As of right now, two things are fairly certain:
- James Harden wants out of Houston.
- This entire ordeal is entertaining as hell.
The Rockets' front office has stated publicly that they're in no hurry to trade their superstar. It's a sound strategy considering the leverage that they hold—at least for the moment. Contractually, they're in the driver's seat. That doesn't mean that players are completely powerless in these situations, as Kawhi Leonard proved to the Spurs in 2017. So it's at least worth it for the Rockets to show some good faith.
The problem lies with the trade itself. Let's get one thing straight: the Rockets will not win any trade they complete. Period. It's important to understand that ahead of time, and we're going to explore why.
There's an analytics metric in the basketball nerd-verse known as "win shares." The goal of win shares is to quantify just how much an individual contributed to each win. The nuts and bolts can be explored here, but all you have to know for the purposes of this argument is that it's one of several metrics that tells you how valuable a player is.
So I put my nerd hat on and headed over to stathead.com to see just how valuable Harden has been to the Rockets' success. I knew he would rank fairly high among the league's elite players, but I wanted to nail it down. So I searched for total win shares from the 2012-2013 season (when Harden was traded to the Rockets) to now.
I was right:
| Rank | Player | WS |
| 1 | James Harden | 114.1 |
| 2 | LeBron James | 103.1 |
| 3 | Kevin Durant | 91.3 |
| 4 | Chris Paul | 91.2 |
| 5 | Stephen Curry | 89.7 |
NUMBER ONE. Easily.
What that is saying is that no player has contributed more to their team's success than Harden. LeBron has obviously contributed, but he's also been aided by great players that contribute their own sizeable win shares.
What this metric also proves is just how impossible it is to replace Harden. Whatever trade you're completing won't be even. Whoever gets Harden wins that trade.
The most intriguing trade suggested so far would be for the Philadelphia 76ers' Ben Simmons. Adjusting the comparison for the amount of time that Simmons has been (healthy) in the league, the number still isn't close:
| Win Shares (2017-2020) | |
| James Harden | 43.7 |
| Ben Simmons | 24.4 |
I get it, they're at different stages in their careers and one of them wasn't forced to carry their team like the other. But Harden almost doubles Simmons in win shares and that's hard to ignore.
The counterargument is that the Rockets would be looking for a massive pile of draft picks. Picks are nice in theory, but picks don't average 34 points per game. The NBA Draft is such a crap shoot that in 2013 back-to-back reigning MVP Giannis Antetokounmpo went 15th overall. The first pick? Anthony Bennett, who was out of the league after 4 years.
The Rockets find themselves in an incredibly unenviable position of moving one of the best players in the league. Losing Harden will be a massive blow to the franchise. What remains to be seen is just how severe it is.
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Cam Smith brought three dozen Shipley's glazed donuts to his Houston Astros teammates Thursday morning before his major league debut.
Then he really delivered, with an opposite-field single on the first pitch he saw in the major leagues to help Houston to a 3-1 win over the New York Mets.
“They all liked it, so that’s a good thing," Smith said of the donuts, a sentiment that could also apply to his second-inning hit that set up the first run of the game.
The 22-year-old prospect reached the majors after playing just 32 minor league games. Batting seventh and starting in right field, he became the second-youngest Astros position player to make his MLB debut as a starter on opening day and the youngest since Rusty Staub was 19 in 1963.
With one out in the second, Smith grounded a single to right field on a sinker from Clay Holmes to get his first big league hit in his initial plate appearance. Jeremy Peña dashed from first to third on the play and later scored on a groundout.
“I was just looking for a pitch and I wanted to ambush it and I got lucky with that base hit,” Smith said.
The poise he showed in his debut impressed his coaches and teammates.
“He's amazing," Jose Altuve said. “He went the other way on a tough pitch and he set the tone to score the first run. I know he's going to help this team a lot. He's going to be out there getting better and better. He's just so talented.”
Most believed that Smith, the 14th overall pick in last year’s amateur draft, would need more time in the minors when he was acquired in December from the Chicago Cubs along with Isaac Paredes and Hayden Wesneski as part of the Kyle Tucker trade.
Instead, Smith hit .342 with a triple, four homers, 11 RBIs and a 1.130 OPS this spring to earn a spot on the major league roster.
The Astros announced he’d make the big league roster earlier this week, with manager Joe Espada inviting Smith's mother into the clubhouse to deliver the news. Video of the moment shared by the Astros captured the touching exchange.
After the trade, Smith moved from third base, where Paredes is starting, to right field, where he replaced Tucker.
Still wearing his dirt-stained uniform long after the last pitch Thursday, the kid who was playing college ball at Florida State at this time last year said he hadn’t had time to reflect on his whirlwind journey to the big leagues.
“I have not,” Smith said. “I was just out there with my family on the field appreciating this day and ... good thing we got done early so I can go home and get my feet under myself and think about it.”
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