THE BIG 12 REPORT

The Longhorns' collapse in Stillwater re-opens the door for Oklahoma and West Virginia

The Longhorns' collapse in Stillwater re-opens the door for Oklahoma and West Virginia
Kyler Murray and OU benefit most from Texas' loss. Matthew Stockman/Getty Images

The Longhorns' miracle season came to an abrupt ending on Saturday night in Stillwater, Okla. During their six-game winning streak Texas looked to be one of the top teams in the nation with legitimate national champion potential, all of which is distant memory now. After the Cowboys took an early 31-14 lead, the Longhorns fought their way back to just a three-point deficit making the score 31-28 late in the fourth quarter. Just as UT felt like they had the comeback in hand, Oklahoma State scored once again to strike the final blow. What this means for the Big 12 is it has for the time being, it has become a two-team race between Oklahoma and West Virginia, and to make things even more interesting, they are set to face off in the final week of the season. While the Longhorns playoff hopes are lost, they are still not completely out of the picture. If Texas is able to win the rest of their games, they would likely be in a position to contend for the Big 12 championship.

Must watch games week 10:

(12) West Virginia vs. (15) Texas

The most exciting game in Week 10 will without a doubt be the showdown between the Mountaineers and Longhorns. Not only is this game a must watch because both teams will arguably be fighting for a chance to compete in the Big 12 championship, but this will also be a faceoff between two of the most exciting playmakers in the Big 12, quarterbacks Will Grier and Sam Ehlinger. This will be an interesting matchup of opposites as both teams are known for completely different schemes. West Virginia has created a name for themselves through their air raid offense while Texas has grown to rely on a more physical style of play and an option-based offense that utilizes the play action to create big play opportunities. Despite their differences, both teams have found plenty of success this season and will do everything in their power to continue that in week 10. One thing to keep any eye on in this matchup is the Longhorns defense. While Texas has relied heavily on the dominant play of their defense this season, the Longhorns D struggled mightily in their 38-35 upset loss to Oklahoma State giving up over 300 yards through the air and three touchdowns. UT’s defense will need to have a bounce back week if they hope to take down the 6-1 Mountaineers.

(7) Oklahoma vs. Texas Tech

The second premiere matchup of week 10 is Oklahoma vs. Texas Tech. The Sooners will be playing with new life after Texas; the only team to defeat them this season went down in Week 9 to Oklahoma State. Oklahoma now sits atop the Big 12 standings tied with West Virginia, who also holds a 6-1 record and is quickly making a push back into the playoff conversation. While this is all exciting news for the Sooners, the season is far from over for a team that could make a lot of noise if they are able to win out the rest of the season. The Red Raiders on the other hand lost a little life in Week 9 as they fell to a hot Iowa State team 40-31. Texas Tech struggled to stop Iowa State’s offense on any level which is a dangerous problem to have heading into a game against one of the most explosive offenses in the nation. While there is no doubt that OU will be the better of the two teams, don’t count the Red Raiders out with gunslinger Alan Bowman at quarterback.

Players to watch week 10

Texas Tech WR Antoine Wesley: If the Red Raiders hope to have any chance of knocking off the No. 7 Sooners, they will need their big play receiver Wesley to have one heck of a game. Standing at 6’5, Wesley’s combination of size, speed, and ball skills are a matchup nightmare for defensive backs and his stats prove it. The towering target leads the Big 12 with 58 receptions and 977 receiving yards and is tied for fourth in touchdown receptions with seven. Wesley has also surpassed 100 yards receiving in four game this season, three of which have come in Texas Tech’s last four games. Look for Wesley to be targeted early and often in hopes of sparking momentum for a Red Raider team that will need all the help they can get.

Iowa State WR Hakeem Butler: Another physically impressive receiver makes the list of players to watch this week, 6’6 Hakeem Butler. Butler has been a highlight machine for the Cyclones this season, make some of the most acrobatic and jaw dropping catches in all of college football this season. Iowa State's go-to man has been playing his best football as of late with over 100 yards receiving in his last two games and a touchdown reception in each of his last three games. Since Freshman quarterback Brock Purdy took over the starting job he has shown an immediate connection with Butler which can only be expected to grow stronger as the two get more playing time together. This could very well mean that Butler’s best play is still ahead of him and will look to build off his recent success against an inconsistent Kansas team.

Kansas State RB Alex Barnes: The final player to keep an eye on this week is the Big 12 rushing leader Alex Barnes. While being the highlight of Kansas State’s season, Barnes has had a quietly impressive year leading the Big 12 with 816 rushing yards and nine touchdowns. Though the Wildcats have struggled this season with just three wins, Barnes has played his best two games as of late when he rushed for 250 yards and 3 touchdowns vs. Baylor and 181 yards and 4 touchdowns vs. Oklahoma State. Kansas State will have a chance to take down a disjointed TCU team in week 10 but will need Barnes to set the tone with the rushing attack.








 

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Kyle Tucker and Alex Bregman are hot names at the Winter Meetings. Composite Getty Image.

The woeful state of the Astros' farm system has made it very expensive to continue maintaining a good team, prohibitively so (in part self-imposed) from having a great team. Even if they re-sign Alex Bregman, trading Framber Valdez and/or Kyle Tucker for prospects could snap the Astros' run of eight straight postseason appearances. But if they KNOW that no way do they intend to offer Framber five years 130 million dollars, Tucker 7/225 or whatever their free agent markets might be after next season, keeping them for 2025 but getting nothing but 2026 compensatory draft picks for them could do multi-year damage to the franchise.

The time is here for the Astros to be aggressively shopping both. It doesn't make trading them obligatory, but even though many purported top prospects amount to little or nothing (look up what the Astros traded to Detroit for Justin Verlander, to Pittsburgh for Gerrit Cole, to Arizona for Zack Greinke) if strong packages are offered the Astros need to act if unwilling (reasonably or not) to pay Valdez/Tucker.

Last offseason the Milwaukee Brewers traded pitching ace Corbin Burnes one season ahead of his free agency and then again won the National League Central, the San Diego Padres dealt Juan Soto and wound up much improved and a playoff team after missing the 2023 postseason. But nailing the trades is critical. The Brewers got their everyday rookie third baseman Joey Ortiz and two other prospects. The Padres got quality starter Michael King, catcher Kyle Hagashioka, and three prospects.

Back to Bregman

Meanwhile, decision time approaches for Alex Bregman. He, via agent Scott Boras, wants 200-plus million dollars. Don't we all. If he can land that from somebody, congratulations. The Astros' six-year 156 million dollar contract offer is more than fair. That's 26 million dollars per season and would take Bregman within a few months of his 37th birthday. If rounding up to 160 mil gets it done, ok I guess. Going to 200 would be silly.

While Bregman hasn't been a superstar (or even an All-Star) since 2019, he's still a very good player. That includes his 2024 season which showed decline offensively. Not falling off a cliff decline other than his walk rate plunging about 45 percent, but decline. If Bregman remains the exact player he was this season, six-156 is pricey but not crazy in the current marketplace. But how likely is Bregman to not drop off further in his mid-30s? As noted before, the storyline is bogus that Bregman has been a postseason monster. Over seven League Championship Series and four World Series Bregman has a .196 batting average.
The Astros already should be sweating some over Jose Altuve having shown marked decline this season, before his five year 125 million dollar extension covering 2025-2029 even starts. Altuve was still very good offensively though well down from 2022 and 2023 (defensively his data are now awful), but as he approaches turning 35 years old in May some concern is warranted when locked into paying a guy until he's nearly 39 1/2.

Jim Crane is right in noting that long contracts paying guys huge money in their later years generally go poorly for the clubs.

Bang for your buck

Cleveland third baseman Jose Ramirez is heading into the second year of a five-year, $124 million extension. That's 24.8 million dollars per season. Jose Ramirez is a clearly better player than Alex Bregman. Ramirez has been the better player for five consecutive seasons, and only in 2023 was it even close. It should be noted that Ramirez signed his extension in April of 2022. He is about a year and a half older than Bregman so the Guardians are paying their superstar through his age 36 season.

Bregman benefits from playing his home games at soon-to be named Daikin Park. Bregman hit 26 home runs this year. Using ball-tracking data, if he had played all his games in Houston, Bregman would have hit 31 homers. Had all his swings been taken at Yankee Stadium, the "Breggy Bomb" count would have been 25. In Cleveland, just 18. Ramirez hit 41 dingers. If all his games were home games 40 would have cleared the fences, if all had been at Minute Maid Park 47 would have been gone.

Matt Chapman recently signed a six-year 151 million dollar deal to stay with the San Francisco Giants. That's 25.166 million per season. Chapman was clearly a better player than Bregman this year. But it's the only season of Chapman's career that is the case. Chapman is 11 months older than Bregman, so his lush deal with the Giants carries through his age 37 season.

The Giants having overpaid Chapman doesn't obligate the Astros to do the same with Bregman. So, if you're the Astros do you accept overpaying Bregman? They would almost certainly be worse without him in 2025, but what about beyond? Again, having not one elite prospect in their minor league system boxes them in. Still, until/unless the Seattle Mariners upgrade their offense, the Astros cling to American League West favorites status. On the other hand, WITH Bregman, Tucker, and Valdez the Astros are no postseason lock.

For Texans’ conversation, catch Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and me on our Texans On Tap podcasts. Thursdays feature a preview of the upcoming game, and then we go live (then available on demand) after the final gun of the game: Texans on Tap - YouTube

The Astros are always in season for discussion. Our Stone Cold ‘Stros podcasts drop Mondays: Click here to watch!

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