LSU 42, Clemson 25

LSU knocks off Clemson 42-25, completes one of the most historic seasons in college football history

Getty Images

The LSU Tigers are national champions. And their season is one that might not be topped for a long time.

The Bayou Bengals knocked off the defending champion Clemson Tigers 42-25 on Monday night, and the celebration in Louisiana is likely to last a while.

While LSU fans revel, they should also recognize what might have been the greatest single-season run in college football history.

While any list is subjective, many consider what the 1971 Nebraska Cornhuskers did to be one of the most impressive single seasons in college football history before this year. That team finished No. 1, and beat Oklahoma, Colorado and Alabama, the teams that finished 2-3-4.

Realistically, however, the modern era (post 2000), the teams that are most impressive start with 2004 USC. The 13-0 Trojans featured Heisman winner Matt Leinart, and destroyed Adrian Peterson and Oklahoma in the championship game 55-19. That group would lose the next season to another team worth considering, the 2005 Vince Young-led Texas Longhorns. The Horns averaged 50.2 points per game that season. Of course, the 2001 Miami Hurricanes had perhaps the greatest collection of talent on one team, with stars like Andre Johnson, Willis McGahee, Clinton Portis, Frank Gore, Vince Wilfork, Ed Reed...They were simply loaded.

But this LSU team takes a back seat to no one. Of the Tigers 15 wins, SEVEN were against teams ranked in the Top 10 when they played - Texas, Florida, Auburn, Alabama, Georgia, Oklahoma and Clemson. Four of those teams were in the top 5 at the time they played. They faced 11 teams that played in a bowl or the playoff.

Heading into the championship game, the Tigers averaged 48.9 points per game, most in the nation. Quarterback Joe Burrow had a historic season, throwing for over 5,000 yards, completing nearly 80 percent of his passes and winning the Heisman Trophy. He set an NCAA single season record for touchdown passes.

LSU had two 1,000-yard receivers (Ja'Mar Chase and Justin Jefferson) and a 1,000-yard rusher (Clyde Edwards-Helaire) to go with their 5,000-yard passer. They scored 726 points, most in FBS history. They have four projected first-round picks in the NFL Draft this year alone and several others over the next two years. With all that, they deserve to be in the talk for best single season team ever.

When it counted most, they finished it by beating a near dynasty - a team that had not lost in 29 games - for a national championship.

With a season for the ages.

Most Popular

SportsMap Emails
Are Awesome

Listen Live

The numbers show a concerning trend. Composite image by Brandon Strange

Michael Brantley signed a two-year, $30M deal with the Houston Astros prior to 2019 to little fanfare. The then 32 year-old was coming off of yet another injury riddled season with the Cleveland Indians, and the signing was seen as a safe gamble (if there is such a thing). Brantley would produce if healthy, but would he ever be healthy?

Brantley went on to have two of the healthiest seasons of his career, putting up big numbers for the Astros. Across two seasons, Brantley slashed .309/.370/.497 with a 134 wRC+. The Astros got the best version of Brantley, who had slashed .295/.351/.430 with a 114 wRC+ during his tenure with the Indians.

Brantley is set to hit the market once again, and the Astros face a couple of questions. One, is Brantley worth bringing back? Two, is Brantley worth a qualifying offer?

Hard Hit % - 37.3%

Barrel % - 4.9%

K % - 15%

BB % - 9.1%

Chase % - 20.1%

(All numbers from 2020)

Brantley's greatest skill is controlling the strike zone. He forces pitchers to come to him, and he's only getting better at it. His chase % was the best of his career, and it was 6% better than his 26% mark in 2019. Brantley was t-19th in MLB in chase % with Ronald Acuña Jr. and Yasmani Grandal. Brantley combines this enviable level of plate discipline with another enviable trait: he doesn't swing and miss. His 16.4% whiff % was in the 93rd percentile of MLB. By comparison, Acuña and Grandal were in the 29th and 26th percentiles respectively. Those two don't chase often because they keyhole one spot that they know they can drive. Brantley forces pitchers to come in the zone similar to those two, but he usually doesn't swing and miss when the pitchers do come to him.

However, there are some alarming trends for a hitter now well onto the wrong side of 30.

His 15% K% was the highest it's been since 2011, when he was a 24-year-old in his first full big league season. It was a 4.6% increase in K% over last season. Brantley's 16% whiff % is far and away the worst it's been in his career, and it's 5.6% worse than it was in 2019. That 5.6% is the difference between swinging-and-missing the second least in MLB and swinging-and-missing the 11th least. That's a steep drop over one season. Remember, Brantley chased pitches outside the zone the least he ever had in his career. That increase in whiff % mostly came on strikes. His contact % on strikes dropped 4.8% from 2019.

A big indicator of age is the inability to catch up with the fastball. Brantley's 13.2% whiff rate against fastballs in 2020 was the worst it's been in his career. The second worst? 7.5% back in 2011. On the surface, Brantley performed fine on fastballs in 2020. He batted .295 with a .438 SLG against them. But it gets a little uglier just one level deeper. Brantley's xBA on fastballs was .242. His xSLG was .410.

Compared to his 2019 performance against fastballs, it was quite the downturn. Brantley batted .320 against fastballs in 2019 with a .311 xBA. He slugged .501 with a xSLG of .506. Lastly, Brantley had an 89.3 average exit velocity on fastballs in 2019 compared to 87.4 in 2020. The downturn in fastball productivity is alarming.

Brantley performed great against breaking balls and offspeed pitches in 2020, but once pitchers realize that he can't stay on the fastball like he used to, Brantley will be setup for failure, not success.

Brantley doesn't run well either. His average sprint speed of 26.2 ft/s was in the 34th percentile in MLB. Brantley did perform well defensively by nearly every metric, but he was in the 39th percentile in outfielder jump. He really can't afford a downturn defensively, and with Yordan Alvarez returning as the full time DH next season, they won't have the ability to give Brantley the occasional day off his legs at DH

The qualifying offer has been set at $18.9M for the 2020 offseason. Considering Houston's lack of draft picks due to their punishment for technological sign-stealing, recouping some of that draft capital would be helpful for the club. $18.9M would represent a $3.9M raise for Brantley, which is exactly the price of not being able to bring back Brad Peacock.

It's unlikely that Brantley will regress so quickly that he'll be unplayable in 2021. He will likely be a productive ballplayer. Considering that the Astros can afford to pay the raise in salary if he accepts the qualifying offer, it is worth giving it to him. If he declines the QO, however, it isn't worth giving him a multi-year deal. There are too many signs of regression, and anything more than one year is a risk. If Brantley demands a multi-year deal, the Astros should let him walk and take the draft pick compensation.

SportsMap Emails
Are Awesome