It's tournament time. Getty Images
The moment selection Sunday concluded, college hoops enthusiasts scrambled frantically to get their first glance at a bracket and a chance to predict the first upset of the tournament. Over three decades of countless brackets being filled out at a rate that has gotten up to 100 million a year, zero have come out perfect. Even further, according to the main sites that host the March Madness bracket contest (ESPN, FOX, Yahoo, NCAA, CBS.), the best bracket on record was in 2017, with 39 consecutive wins. Before that, it was in 2014, where a man named Brian Bender was able to start out a perfect 36 for 36.
The odds of completing a perfect bracket are nearly impossible, but for employees of Warren Buffet's companies, going perfect through the sweet 16 can bank you 1 million dollars a year, for the rest of your life. An added bonus to this year's prize pool, the 70 billion dollar CEO promises to make it 2 million a year if one of the two teams from his home state can cut down the nets in San Antonio. Creighton and Nebraska just gained that many more fans going into this year's competition. A consolation prize of $100,000 isn't too shabby for the best overall bracket either.
Here are a few tips when filling out your bracket:
How many upsets is too many?
An upset is classified where the teams competing have at least a two seed gap between them. On average, there are 12.7 upsets a year per tournament. Most of those upsets happen in the round of 64 as there are more games, and the difference in competition tightens up through each round.
Upsets through round:
64- 6 upsets
32- 3.6 upsets
Sweet 16- 1.6 upsets
Elite 8- .9 upsets
Final Four- .3 upsets
The most upsets a tournament has seen was in 2014, where it happened 19 times. The least was in 2007 with only four.
When picking underdogs and upsets keep the number around 10, giving you a less chance of busting your bracket up completely.
The infamous #12 vs. #5 match-up
When sifting through stats and trends, one that has come to mind is the recent dependability of this upset in the last few tournaments. Since 2007, all of the No. 5 seeds have advanced together only twice, giving us reason to believe that we will see a 12 knock off a top seed again this year. In the last six years, when these two seeds have faced off in the round of 64, the favorite is 11-13 straight up. Betting against the No. 5 seed in the opening round has paid off big as of late, with the favorite going 8-16 against the spread, and in the past two tournaments, No. 5 seeds hold 1-3 ATS records.
Odds to Win
No. 1 seeds
Villanova +600
Virginia +650
Kansas +1200
Xavier +1500
Although these teams are the top seeds for each region, Vegas doesn't seem to agree. Duke is a #2 seed and pays out+800, less than Kansas and Xavier. The same can be said for #3 seeds Michigan State (+750) and Michigan (+1000). Another significant disagreement with Vegas is with Arizona being a No. 4 seed, and their odds prove it, as the Wildcats pay out the same as No. 1 seeded Kansas. Yes, the road to the final four has a lot to do with the future odds, and with tournament top seed Virginia we see just that. They are the overall top seed yet play slightly less than Villanova. The fact that Virginia will have to potentially play Arizona or Kentucky in the sweet 16 and have to backdoor a likely match-up vs. Cincinnati in the Elite 8 gives Villanova the easier path.
Villanova +600
Virginia +650
Duke +800
Michigan State +1100
Kansas +1200
Purdue +1200
Cincinnati +1200
Arizona +1200
Michigan +1400
North Carolina +1400
Xavier+1500
Gonzaga +1500
Kentucky +1600
West Virginia +2500
Texas Tech +4000
Tennessee +4000
Wichita State +4000
Missouri +5500
Auburn +6000
Ohio State +8000
Florida +9000
Houston U +10000
Providence +10000
Rhode Island +15000
Texas A&M +15000
TCU +15000
Clemson +15000
Miami Florida +15000
Oklahoma +20000
San Diego State +20000
Virginia Tech +20000
Arkansas +25000
Alabama +25000
Davidson +25000
Seton Hall +25000
Texas+25000
Loyola Chicago +25000
NC State +25000
Syracuse +25000
Butler +30000
UCLA +30000
Creighton +35000
Florida State +35000
Arizona State +50000
Kansas State +50000
Marshall +50000
Montana +50000
Nevada +50000
New Mexico State +50000
Stephen F. Austin +50000
Wright State +50000
Bucknell +70000
MD Baltimore County +100000
Buffalo +100000
CS Fullerton +100000
Coll Charleston +100000
Georgia State +100000
Iona +100000
Lipscomb +100000
Long Island +100000
Murray State +100000
NC Central +100000
NC Greensboro +100000
Pennsylvania +100000
Radford +100000
South Dakota State +100000
St. Bonaventure +100000
Texas Southern +100000
Thursday Picks (Picks in Bold):
Thu 3/15 Oklahoma U +2 o158
Rhode Island
Rhode Island -2
Thu 3/15 San Diego State +4 o142.5
Houston U
San Diego State +4
Thu 3/15 Davidson +5 o143
Kentucky
Kentucky-5
Thu 3/15 Loyola Chicago +1.5 o134
Miami Florida
Loyola Chicago +1.5
Thu 3/15 St. Bonaventure / UCLA +4
Florida
Florida -4
Thu 3/15 NC State +2.5 o157.5
Seton Hall
NC State +3 buy hook
Any questions or comments reach me @JerryBoknowz on twitter
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Jalen Green scored 34 points and the Houston Rockets never trailed in a 106-101 victory over Victor Wembanyama and the San Antonio Spurs on Monday night.
Jabari Smith added 17 points and Alperen Sengun had 12 points and 12 rebounds for Houston.
The Rockets rebounded from a 109-106 loss to the Spurs on Saturday to close out a two-game set in San Antonio.
Jeremy Sochan had 22 points and nine rebounds, and Wembanyama had 12 points and 18 rebounds for the Spurs.
Takeaways
Rockets: Houston gave up six consecutive points to allow San Antonio to get within 101-99 with 36 seconds remaining. Veteran point guard Fred VanVleet, who was 3 for 13 from the field at the time, calmly drained a 3-pointer with 18 seconds remaining. VanVleet finished with 11 points.
Spurs: Chris Paul had 16 points after scoring a combined six in San Antonio’s first two games. It was his highest-scoring game since he had 19 points against the Spurs on March 11 while with Golden State. Paul had just three assists after averaging 8.5 in his first two games.
Key moment
San Antonio missed five consecutive shots on one possession in the third quarter, including four at near point-blank range. Sochan opened the possession by missing a floater. Keldon Johnson then missed a 3-pointer, Sochan missed a hook shot, Zach Collins missed a 3-pointer and Sochan ended the futility by missing a layup. After failing to secure the previous four rebounds, Houston gained possession and quickly drove down the court to score on a hook shot by Steven Adams.
Key stat
After shooting 60% in the opening period on Saturday, San Antonio shot 32% in the first quarter Monday and fell behind 29-15.
Up next
The Rockets visit Dallas on Thursday and the Spurs play at Oklahoma City on Wednesday.
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Fans of Houston sports and Houston food can now score tickets to The Tailgate, CultureMap's all-out party devoted to everyone’s favorite way to get in the gameday spirit. The event, presented by Verizon, goes down from 6-9 pm November 11 at 8th Wonder. Find out more about it here.