THE GOLF REPORT
A Monday finish on Tour; some epic slow play; Rory getting punked in the desert; and a look ahead at the rowdiest hole in golf
Josh Rapp
Jan 31, 2018, 5:00 am
Golf on Monday?
This past weekend saw some strange things in the golfing world. To start with, we needed six extra holes to determine a winner of the Farmers Insurance Open. While the extra holes in and of themselves aren’t strange, the fact that enough were needed to play on Monday is a bit out of the ordinary. Jason Day, Alex Noren, and Ryan Palmer finished 72 holes tied at 10-under par. Palmer was eliminated on the first playoff hole, but Day and Noren battled through another four holes still tied. The officials decided to suspend play because of the darkness, and come back Monday morning to finish. If you don’t play golf, or especially haven’t competed in some sort of tournament or club event, it may be hard to understand why this is tough. Let me explain. When you show up for a tournament each day, there are so many things that need to happen before you even begin play. Aside from the off-course stuff, once you get to the course there is generally a couple hours of warm up. From putting to chipping, and all the way up to full swings with the driver. Then you generally go play 18 holes that takes roughly four hours (or six if your J.B. Holmes; more on that later.) It’s a long day for sure. Now don’t get me wrong, I’m not saying it’s not fun and amazing, but when you are playing for millions of dollars it can get a little nerve-racking for sure. To do all that preparation, and then only play one hole seems so underwhelming. Well that’s what happened on Monday. When Alex Noren put his approach shot in the water, it was a mere formality at that point for Jason Day. After all that build-up it only took one hole on Monday to find a winner. Day earned his first win in almost 20 months, and re-asserted himself as a dominant force on the Tour. It’s great to see him back playing well after being sidelined by bizarre injuries and even worse family issues. As long as he can stay healthy, look for him to continue to play well and be a favorite at every tournament.
The Farmers also saw another strange turn of events with the incredibly slow play of J.B. Holmes. Now, to be clear, there are plenty of slow players on Tour; and the officials are very lax with the rules about pace of play. However, this scene from Holmes was in poor form and was borderline egregious. Holmes was in the final group on Sunday with tournament leader Alex Noren. Holmes sat two shots behind the lead with 239 yards to the hole. The 18th being a par-5, he had a great chance to make eagle and get in the clubhouse tied for the lead. The only problem was that it took him 4 minutes and 10 seconds to decide that he didn’t want go for the green and preferred to try and hole out with a wedge. While Holmes was taking his sweet time, Noren was sitting only 230 yards from the hole with a chance to make birdie and win the tournament outright. Essentially what happened was that Holmes inadvertently (although some don’t think so) iced his fellow competitor. The length of his decision even drew boos from the crowd after he hit his lay-up shot. Needless to say, many in the golfing world (fans and pros alike) were not happy with Holmes and voiced their distaste all over social media.
Haotong Li. Take note of that name, because you will more than likely be hearing it a lot in the years to come. What he did this weekend was track down and surpass one of the top players in the world for a win at the Dubai Desert Classic and second European Tour title. Li started Sunday with a one shot lead over Rory McIlroy, but after the 10th hole he was two shots behind. Rory was playing well and looked poised to capture his third title at the Emirates Golf Club in Dubai. However, Li would have none of it. He proceeded to birdie four of his last six holes to get to 23-under par (a tournament record) and one shot ahead of McIlroy. That win earns him a spot at this years Masters, and a nice check for over $500K. Oh wait, did I forget to mention that he is only 22 years old? Wow!
This coming weekend is going to be a fun one. I know it’s Super Bowl weekend, and that’s why most of you will be watching TV. But, if you tune in a few hours earlier on Sunday you’ll get to see the self-proclaimed “Rowdiest Hole in Golf.” The 16th hole at TPC Scottsdale has a place for over 20,000 people to place their behinds. Most golf tournaments limit the number of tickets sold due to the amount of space they have on the course. Well, the hosts of the Waste Management Phoenix Open have stated that they will never limit the tickets, and project this year to have more than 600,000 people come through the turnstiles at TPC Scottsdale. Players and fans alike will get showered in beer if a good golf shot is struck. However, if you fail to hit the green, you’ll hear a full accompaniment of boos. It’s definitely not something you want every week on Tour, but one time a year it’s a blast to watch. The field this week is a sneaky good one. Jordan Spieth, Justin Thomas, John Rahm, and Hideki Matsuyama are just a few of the big names to play this week. With back to back wins here, Matsuyama is the favorite to win at 9/1 along with Jordan Spieth. It’s hard not to see Matsuyama perform well here since he has four starts at this event and has finished T4, T2, 1, 1. That’s a stellar record at a single event. He knows the course well, it fits his eye, and he knows what it takes to win. A win for either him or Spieth would not be surprising. Some dark horses to watch out for would be Charley Hoffman and Adam Hadwin. Hoffman is coming off three good rounds at Torrey Pines (a much tougher course); and if not for a fourth round 75 he would have been contending come Sunday. He has good value at 70/1 to win and many models (including my own) are projecting him to play well. Adam Hadwin comes in at 75/1 to win, and is also projected to play well. We know he can go low having fired a 59 on tour just last year. This weekend proves to be an exciting one. We will see if the “Rowdiest Hole in Golf” lives up to its name and produces. Oh, I almost forgot, there’s a football game as well. I’ll cheers to that.
The woeful state of the Astros' farm system has made it very expensive to continue maintaining a good team, prohibitively so (in part self-imposed) from having a great team. Even if they re-sign Alex Bregman, trading Framber Valdez and/or Kyle Tucker for prospects could snap the Astros' run of eight straight postseason appearances. But if they KNOW that no way do they intend to offer Framber five years 130 million dollars, Tucker 7/225 or whatever their free agent markets might be after next season, keeping them for 2025 but getting nothing but 2026 compensatory draft picks for them could do multi-year damage to the franchise.
Preliminary Kyle Tucker trade talks between the Astros and Cubs involve both Seiya Suzuki and Isaac Paredes, sources tell @Ken_Rosenthal and me - https://t.co/kIRATDQpEn
— Chandler Rome (@Chandler_Rome) December 11, 2024
The time is here for the Astros to be aggressively shopping both. It doesn't make trading them obligatory, but even though many purported top prospects amount to little or nothing (look up what the Astros traded to Detroit for Justin Verlander, to Pittsburgh for Gerrit Cole, to Arizona for Zack Greinke) if strong packages are offered the Astros need to act if unwilling (reasonably or not) to pay Valdez/Tucker.
Last offseason the Milwaukee Brewers traded pitching ace Corbin Burnes one season ahead of his free agency and then again won the National League Central, the San Diego Padres dealt Juan Soto and wound up much improved and a playoff team after missing the 2023 postseason. But nailing the trades is critical. The Brewers got their everyday rookie third baseman Joey Ortiz and two other prospects. The Padres got quality starter Michael King, catcher Kyle Hagashioka, and three prospects.
Back to Bregman
Meanwhile, decision time approaches for Alex Bregman. He, via agent Scott Boras, wants 200-plus million dollars. Don't we all. If he can land that from somebody, congratulations. The Astros' six-year 156 million dollar contract offer is more than fair. That's 26 million dollars per season and would take Bregman within a few months of his 37th birthday. If rounding up to 160 mil gets it done, ok I guess. Going to 200 would be silly.
While Bregman hasn't been a superstar (or even an All-Star) since 2019, he's still a very good player. That includes his 2024 season which showed decline offensively. Not falling off a cliff decline other than his walk rate plunging about 45 percent, but decline. If Bregman remains the exact player he was this season, six-156 is pricey but not crazy in the current marketplace. But how likely is Bregman to not drop off further in his mid-30s? As noted before, the storyline is bogus that Bregman has been a postseason monster. Over seven League Championship Series and four World Series Bregman has a .196 batting average.
The Astros already should be sweating some over Jose Altuve having shown marked decline this season, before his five year 125 million dollar extension covering 2025-2029 even starts. Altuve was still very good offensively though well down from 2022 and 2023 (defensively his data are now awful), but as he approaches turning 35 years old in May some concern is warranted when locked into paying a guy until he's nearly 39 1/2.
Jim Crane is right in noting that long contracts paying guys huge money in their later years generally go poorly for the clubs.
Bang for your buck
Cleveland third baseman Jose Ramirez is heading into the second year of a five-year, $124 million extension. That's 24.8 million dollars per season. Jose Ramirez is a clearly better player than Alex Bregman. Ramirez has been the better player for five consecutive seasons, and only in 2023 was it even close. It should be noted that Ramirez signed his extension in April of 2022. He is about a year and a half older than Bregman so the Guardians are paying their superstar through his age 36 season.
Bregman benefits from playing his home games at soon-to be named Daikin Park. Bregman hit 26 home runs this year. Using ball-tracking data, if he had played all his games in Houston, Bregman would have hit 31 homers. Had all his swings been taken at Yankee Stadium, the "Breggy Bomb" count would have been 25. In Cleveland, just 18. Ramirez hit 41 dingers. If all his games were home games 40 would have cleared the fences, if all had been at Minute Maid Park 47 would have been gone.
Matt Chapman recently signed a six-year 151 million dollar deal to stay with the San Francisco Giants. That's 25.166 million per season. Chapman was clearly a better player than Bregman this year. But it's the only season of Chapman's career that is the case. Chapman is 11 months older than Bregman, so his lush deal with the Giants carries through his age 37 season.
The Giants having overpaid Chapman doesn't obligate the Astros to do the same with Bregman. So, if you're the Astros do you accept overpaying Bregman? They would almost certainly be worse without him in 2025, but what about beyond? Again, having not one elite prospect in their minor league system boxes them in. Still, until/unless the Seattle Mariners upgrade their offense, the Astros cling to American League West favorites status. On the other hand, WITH Bregman, Tucker, and Valdez the Astros are no postseason lock.
For Texans’ conversation, catch Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and me on our Texans On Tap podcasts. Thursdays feature a preview of the upcoming game, and then we go live (then available on demand) after the final gun of the game: Texans on Tap - YouTube
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