YOU'RE OUT!

If you've made up your mind about MLB's controversial decision, consider these factors

Astros Carlos Correa, Rob Manfred, Yankees Aaron Judge
Let's discuss what MLB is doing. Composite photo by Jack Brame.

To those who decry Major League Baseball moving its All-Star Game and amateur draft out of Atlanta in protest of Georgia's new election law that puts added restrictions on who and how people can vote ….

To those who say "I don't want my sports getting mixed up in politics" …

Sports, the entertainment world, media, the corporate business world and politics are all together now. One and the same.

Major League Baseball commissioner Rob Manfred did the right thing, the American thing, moving the All-Star Game from Atlanta if that's how baseball feels about the Georgia election law.

It's a free country – if you don't like the way a state or company conducts its business, take your business somewhere else. That's what MLB is doing.

The Georgia law limits the number of ballot drop boxes, only voters who request a mail-in ballot will receive one, and requires photo ID for absentee voting. Candidates cannot mail ballots to voters. It also makes it illegal for anybody to provide food or water to voters waiting in line to vote. Several parts of the bill allegedly are designed to disproportionately discourage voters of color who traditionally stand in line for hours in Georgia's urban areas.

Manfred said, "I have decided that the best way to demonstrate our values as a sport is by relocating this year's All-Star Game and MLB draft. Major League Baseball fundamentally supports voting rights for all Americans and opposes restrictions to the ballot box."

Georgia's Republican Gov. Brian Kemp strongly defends the law, however, saying the legislation "ensures the integrity of our election," and described MLB's decision to move the All-Star Game as an "attack on our state" and "the direct result of repeated lies by Joe Biden and Stacey Abrams."

Kemp added, "I will not back down. MLB caved to fear, political opportunism and liberal lies. Georgians will not be bullied. We will continue to stand up for secure, accessible, fair elections."

Georgia passed the new election bill despite state officials insisting repeatedly, including three recounts of ballots, that the 2020 presidential vote in Georgia showed no widespread fraud. Georgia went into the win column for President Biden.

Critics of the new law say Georgia amended the old saying "if it ain't broke, don't fix it" to "if it ain't broke, fix it so our side wins next time."

It's not just MLB speaking against the new Georgia election bill. Major Georgia-based companies like Coca-Cola, Home Depot and Delta Air Lines have expressed strong opposition.

Coke called the law "unacceptable, a step backwards." Delta released a statement saying the law "includes provisions that will make it harder for many under-represented voters, particularly Black voters, to exercise their constitutional right to elect their representatives. It's about protecting the voices of our people."

Kemp says, "I want to be clear, I will not be backing down from this fight. We will not be intimidated, and we will also not be silenced."

Kemp may back down. Just like Arizona backed down in the '90s after the NFL took away the 1993 Super Bowl scheduled for Phoenix because the state did not recognize Martin Luther King Day as a paid holiday. After public outcry and threats of boycotts led by Coretta Scott King, Stevie Wonder, U2 and Public Enemy, Arizona voters overwhelmingly approved MLK Day as a paid holiday and Phoenix hosted the Super Bowl in 1996.

In 2016, North Carolina passed a controversial "Bathroom Bill" seen as discriminatory to LGBTQ people. The NBA pulled its 2017 All-Star Game out of Charlotte. North Carolina repealed the law the following year and the NBA All-Star Game was restored to Charlotte in 2019.

Baseball commissioner Manfred said he consulted with teams, former and current players and the Players Association before announcing he was pulling the 2021 All-Star Game from Atlanta and moving it to Denver.

Election laws in Colorado make it easier for voters to cast their ballots. Colorado has universal mail-in voting. Every registered voter automatically receives a mail-in ballot, and 94 percent of people vote that way. There are no long lines of people waiting to vote on Election Day in Colorado.

Voting bills similar to Georgia's law now are proposed in 47 states, including Texas. The reaction from the business world has been swift and nearly unanimously opposed to any law that would restrict or make it more difficult for people to vote. Dow, Estee Lauder, Under Armour, American Airlines, ViacomCBS and more than 100 large corporations have protested these proposals. In Texas, Dell released a statement saying "governments should ensure citizens have their voices heard," and proposals in the Texas legislature "do the opposite."

Texas-based American Airlines said, "As a Texas-based business, we must stand up for the rights of our team and customers who call Texas home and honor the sacrifices made by generations to protect and expand the right to vote."

I believe that sports organizations and athletes have a right to speak on political issues. Just because you're wealthy and physically gifted shouldn't diminish your voice.

Of course, this may depend on your political affiliation or which cable news channel you watch. In the case of one Fox News host, it more depends on which athletes are doing the talking.

In 2018, after LeBron James and other NBA stars spoke out about police brutality against Blacks, Fox News host Laura Ingraham said, "It's always unwise to seek political advice from someone who gets paid $100 million a year to bounce a ball. Oh, and LeBron (James) and Kevin (Durant), you're great players but no one voted for you. Millions elected Trump to be their coach. So keep the political commentary to yourself, or as someone once said, shut up and dribble."

But last year, after Drew Brees was criticized for speaking in opposition to NFL players kneeling during the national anthem, Ingraham applauded the quarterback for his courage. "He is allowed to have his view about what kneeling and the flag means to him. I mean, he's a person. I mean this is beyond football. (Criticism of Brees) is totalitarian conduct. This is Stalinist."

If LeBron James and athletes and celebrities want to get involved in social and political issues, good for them. They're not going to dribble or shut up.

Supporting Biden and Kamala Harris last year: Oprah Winfrey, Justin Timberlake, Steph Curry, Beyonce, Lin-Manuel Miranda, The Rock, Jennifer Lopez, Miley Cyrus, Brad Pitt, Taylor Swift, Tom Hanks, Chris Paul, Leonardo DiCaprio, Jennifer Aniston, Jennifer Lawrence, Jennifer Lopez, Eva Longoria, Gregg Popovich, Magic Johnson, Mariah Carey, John Legend, Doc Rivers and more.

Supporting President Trump and Mike Pence: Kid Rock, Dennis Quaid, Brett Favre, Willie Robertson of Duck Dynasty, Gary Busey, Curt Schilling, Mike Ditka, Ted Nugent, Johnny Damon, Antonio Sabato Jr., Darryl Strawberry, Dana White, James Woods, Roseanne Barr, Mariano Rivera, Trace Adkins, Mary Hart, Rick Harrison of Pawn Stars, Herschel Walker, Jon Voight, Scott Baio, Lil Wayne and more.

Even veteran political leaders are waking up to reality. Senate Minority leader Mitch McConnell's initial response to business leaders condemning the Georgia election law: "my advice to the corporate CEOs of America is to stay out of politics. Don't pick sides in these big fights." He added that companies were acting like "woke alternative government, a vehicle for far-left mobs to hijack our country from outside the constitutional order."

But it's all right for corporations to contribute millions of dollars to political candidates and political action committees?

One day later, McConnell corrected himself: "They're certainly entitled to be involved in politics." Feel free to dribble your money my way.

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Kyle Tucker and Alex Bregman are hot names at the Winter Meetings. Composite Getty Image.

The woeful state of the Astros' farm system has made it very expensive to continue maintaining a good team, prohibitively so (in part self-imposed) from having a great team. Even if they re-sign Alex Bregman, trading Framber Valdez and/or Kyle Tucker for prospects could snap the Astros' run of eight straight postseason appearances. But if they KNOW that no way do they intend to offer Framber five years 130 million dollars, Tucker 7/225 or whatever their free agent markets might be after next season, keeping them for 2025 but getting nothing but 2026 compensatory draft picks for them could do multi-year damage to the franchise.

The time is here for the Astros to be aggressively shopping both. It doesn't make trading them obligatory, but even though many purported top prospects amount to little or nothing (look up what the Astros traded to Detroit for Justin Verlander, to Pittsburgh for Gerrit Cole, to Arizona for Zack Greinke) if strong packages are offered the Astros need to act if unwilling (reasonably or not) to pay Valdez/Tucker.

Last offseason the Milwaukee Brewers traded pitching ace Corbin Burnes one season ahead of his free agency and then again won the National League Central, the San Diego Padres dealt Juan Soto and wound up much improved and a playoff team after missing the 2023 postseason. But nailing the trades is critical. The Brewers got their everyday rookie third baseman Joey Ortiz and two other prospects. The Padres got quality starter Michael King, catcher Kyle Hagashioka, and three prospects.

Back to Bregman

Meanwhile, decision time approaches for Alex Bregman. He, via agent Scott Boras, wants 200-plus million dollars. Don't we all. If he can land that from somebody, congratulations. The Astros' six-year 156 million dollar contract offer is more than fair. That's 26 million dollars per season and would take Bregman within a few months of his 37th birthday. If rounding up to 160 mil gets it done, ok I guess. Going to 200 would be silly.

While Bregman hasn't been a superstar (or even an All-Star) since 2019, he's still a very good player. That includes his 2024 season which showed decline offensively. Not falling off a cliff decline other than his walk rate plunging about 45 percent, but decline. If Bregman remains the exact player he was this season, six-156 is pricey but not crazy in the current marketplace. But how likely is Bregman to not drop off further in his mid-30s? As noted before, the storyline is bogus that Bregman has been a postseason monster. Over seven League Championship Series and four World Series Bregman has a .196 batting average.
The Astros already should be sweating some over Jose Altuve having shown marked decline this season, before his five year 125 million dollar extension covering 2025-2029 even starts. Altuve was still very good offensively though well down from 2022 and 2023 (defensively his data are now awful), but as he approaches turning 35 years old in May some concern is warranted when locked into paying a guy until he's nearly 39 1/2.

Jim Crane is right in noting that long contracts paying guys huge money in their later years generally go poorly for the clubs.

Bang for your buck

Cleveland third baseman Jose Ramirez is heading into the second year of a five-year, $124 million extension. That's 24.8 million dollars per season. Jose Ramirez is a clearly better player than Alex Bregman. Ramirez has been the better player for five consecutive seasons, and only in 2023 was it even close. It should be noted that Ramirez signed his extension in April of 2022. He is about a year and a half older than Bregman so the Guardians are paying their superstar through his age 36 season.

Bregman benefits from playing his home games at soon-to be named Daikin Park. Bregman hit 26 home runs this year. Using ball-tracking data, if he had played all his games in Houston, Bregman would have hit 31 homers. Had all his swings been taken at Yankee Stadium, the "Breggy Bomb" count would have been 25. In Cleveland, just 18. Ramirez hit 41 dingers. If all his games were home games 40 would have cleared the fences, if all had been at Minute Maid Park 47 would have been gone.

Matt Chapman recently signed a six-year 151 million dollar deal to stay with the San Francisco Giants. That's 25.166 million per season. Chapman was clearly a better player than Bregman this year. But it's the only season of Chapman's career that is the case. Chapman is 11 months older than Bregman, so his lush deal with the Giants carries through his age 37 season.

The Giants having overpaid Chapman doesn't obligate the Astros to do the same with Bregman. So, if you're the Astros do you accept overpaying Bregman? They would almost certainly be worse without him in 2025, but what about beyond? Again, having not one elite prospect in their minor league system boxes them in. Still, until/unless the Seattle Mariners upgrade their offense, the Astros cling to American League West favorites status. On the other hand, WITH Bregman, Tucker, and Valdez the Astros are no postseason lock.

For Texans’ conversation, catch Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and me on our Texans On Tap podcasts. Thursdays feature a preview of the upcoming game, and then we go live (then available on demand) after the final gun of the game: Texans on Tap - YouTube

The Astros are always in season for discussion. Our Stone Cold ‘Stros podcasts drop Mondays: Click here to watch!

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