Let's get that early money
My Guide to first quarter betting in Sunday's Super Bowl
Feb 1, 2019, 6:59 am
Sbnation.com
How nice would it be to put in all your bets on first quarter props and then just sit back and enjoy the rest of the game while all your buddies sweat out game totals and sides.
Are you a "trend is your friend" guy? If so I've got some clearcut early trends for you and it's not like it's a small sample size. While we might be sick of the Patriots in the Super Bowl they are giving us some obvious choices on prop bets Sunday.
The most unbelievable stat from the Super Bowls during the Belichick/Brady era is that in their eight games the Patriots have scored a grand total of three points in the first quarter of those games. Three. Total. In eight games.
You would think that a team with all that experience, all that coaching prowess, the GOAT at quarterback and two weeks to prepare would be ready to pounce on their less experienced opponent and take an early lead. That has simply not been the case.
But as you might expect the Patriots have been ready to play defensively. In those same first quarters they have held their opponents scoreless four times, given up just a field goal twice, and nine points twice. Only once has the first quarter total reached double digits and that was last year when the Eagles led 9-3 after one.
So if we are trend guys we will go with the under on the 10 1/2 first quarter point total. We will also bet that the Rams score first since the Patriots opponents have scored first in six of their eight Super Bowls.
One almost certainty is that the Patriots first play will be a pass. In all eight games the Patriots first play from scrimmage has been a pass. Book it.
The under/over for 1st quarter TD's is 1.5. That has not happened in the Belichick/Brady era. You have to risk $165 to win $100 but you have to like something that hasn't happened in eight games thus far.
On the Rams side we don't have much to go by but I do have a feeling that the NFC Championship game was a wakeup call for Todd Gurley. Afterwards Sean McVay said that Gurley was still their guy. I think they'll want to prove that early. I don't know how successful he will be but I do think he'll be on the field instead of C.J. Anderson who will be busy finishing up a hamburger anyway so I'm going with Anderson under 12 1/2 1st quarter rushing yards.
I'm also a big Stephon Gilmore guy. Watching him all year I feel like he was the best corner in the game. Given how much they move Brandin Cooks around I think Gllmore will be locked down on Robert Woods. I like that matchup so I'm going with under 15 1/2 receiving yards for Robert Woods in the 1st quarter.
And for that same reason I like Josh Reynolds to have an impact in this game. I'm taking over 1/2 a catch and 6 1/2 yards receiving for Reynolds in the 1st quarter. He will be an X factor in this game.
So recapping, In the first quarter I like:
Under 10.5 total points
Rams score first
Patriots first play is a pass
Under 1.5 TD's
CJ Anderson under 12.5 rushing yards
Robert Woods under 15.5 receiving yards
Josh Reynolds over 1/2 catch
Josh Reynolds over 6.5 yards receiving
Then just sit back and enjoy the rest of the game.
Or
Get your butt handed to you, get on mybookie.ag and start making second half bets to somehow salvage an otherwise miserable Super Bowl.
Either way have fun everybody.
Most Popular
SportsMap Emails
Are Awesome
Listen Live
I left for vacation on April 14. Came back home on April 24. Eleven days in England and Germany.
Astros first baseman Jose Abreu went 0 for my vacation.
The last time Abreu reached base via a real-life hit was April 13 when he got two hits (fully half of his season total) and his batting average soared to a robust .122.
Since then, while I was dining on shepherd’s pie and schnitzel, Abreu has gone hitless in 21 at bats and his batting average has plunged to a squinty .065.
There’s an expression in baseball when a player is having a horrible, dreadful season: “He ain’t hitting his weight.”
Abreu ain’t hitting his uniform number. If you’re keeping score at home, Abreu weighs 250 pounds and wears number 79.
Abreu is chasing history. The record for suckiest single-season batting average for a player with enough plate appearances (502) to qualify for the batting title is held by former Orioles slugger Chris Davis.
In 2018, Davis batted .168. Despite being in the middle of a wildly overpaid 7-year, $161 million contract, the Orioles essentially fired Davis and his career was over in 2020.
Abreu is in the middle year of a guaranteed 3-year, $58.5 million, money down the toilet contract. Will he be an Astro next year when owner Jim Crane chokes on signing yet another $19.5 million paycheck for Abreu? Unlikely.
Other modern era batters have turned in disastrous single-season averages. Dan Uggla batted an unattractive .179 for the Braves in 2013. Rob Deer was a deer in the headlights swatting .179 for the Tigers in 1991.
Abreu is turning futility into an art form. If he continues his .065 pace he will obliterate every record for crummiest season in baseball history.
He has appeared in 19 games and has 4 hits in 62 at bats, with no home runs and one measly RBI. He had his latest oh-fer Tuesday night against the Cubs.
Fans are clamoring for Astros manager Joe Espada to open his eyes, stop looking at the back of Abreu’s baseball and bench the flailing, failing first baseman.
I say the opposite. In fact move him back to fifth in the batting order. If Abreu stays focused on doing what he does best this season - striking out with runners in scoring position - fans can witness the worst batting stats anybody’s ever had.
Oh, by the way, Abreu is a horrible fielding first baseman. We don’t know if he’s a good base runner. He’d have to get on base for us to tell.
Abreu is on pace to get 502 plate appearances. So this counts.
There actually is a player who’s having worse time at the plate than Abreu., though.
Abreu’s meager stats look positively Ruthian compared to what former Astro catcher Martin Maldonado is putting up for the White Sox. Maldy has 2 hits in 42 at bats for a subterranean .048 batting average with no homers and no RBI in 15 games. Maldonado won’t get to 502 plate appearances, however.
Who will end 2024 with a lower batting average: Abreu or Maldonado? This epic battle could go down to the final game of the season.