Let's get that early money
My Guide to first quarter betting in Sunday's Super Bowl
How nice would it be to put in all your bets on first quarter props and then just sit back and enjoy the rest of the game while all your buddies sweat out game totals and sides.
Are you a "trend is your friend" guy? If so I've got some clearcut early trends for you and it's not like it's a small sample size. While we might be sick of the Patriots in the Super Bowl they are giving us some obvious choices on prop bets Sunday.
The most unbelievable stat from the Super Bowls during the Belichick/Brady era is that in their eight games the Patriots have scored a grand total of three points in the first quarter of those games. Three. Total. In eight games.
You would think that a team with all that experience, all that coaching prowess, the GOAT at quarterback and two weeks to prepare would be ready to pounce on their less experienced opponent and take an early lead. That has simply not been the case.
But as you might expect the Patriots have been ready to play defensively. In those same first quarters they have held their opponents scoreless four times, given up just a field goal twice, and nine points twice. Only once has the first quarter total reached double digits and that was last year when the Eagles led 9-3 after one.
So if we are trend guys we will go with the under on the 10 1/2 first quarter point total. We will also bet that the Rams score first since the Patriots opponents have scored first in six of their eight Super Bowls.
One almost certainty is that the Patriots first play will be a pass. In all eight games the Patriots first play from scrimmage has been a pass. Book it.
The under/over for 1st quarter TD's is 1.5. That has not happened in the Belichick/Brady era. You have to risk $165 to win $100 but you have to like something that hasn't happened in eight games thus far.
On the Rams side we don't have much to go by but I do have a feeling that the NFC Championship game was a wakeup call for Todd Gurley. Afterwards Sean McVay said that Gurley was still their guy. I think they'll want to prove that early. I don't know how successful he will be but I do think he'll be on the field instead of C.J. Anderson who will be busy finishing up a hamburger anyway so I'm going with Anderson under 12 1/2 1st quarter rushing yards.
I'm also a big Stephon Gilmore guy. Watching him all year I feel like he was the best corner in the game. Given how much they move Brandin Cooks around I think Gllmore will be locked down on Robert Woods. I like that matchup so I'm going with under 15 1/2 receiving yards for Robert Woods in the 1st quarter.
And for that same reason I like Josh Reynolds to have an impact in this game. I'm taking over 1/2 a catch and 6 1/2 yards receiving for Reynolds in the 1st quarter. He will be an X factor in this game.
So recapping, In the first quarter I like:
Under 10.5 total points
Rams score first
Patriots first play is a pass
Under 1.5 TD's
CJ Anderson under 12.5 rushing yards
Robert Woods under 15.5 receiving yards
Josh Reynolds over 1/2 catch
Josh Reynolds over 6.5 yards receiving
Then just sit back and enjoy the rest of the game.
Get your butt handed to you, get on mybookie.ag and start making second half bets to somehow salvage an otherwise miserable Super Bowl.
Either way have fun everybody.