THE LEFT TURN

NASCAR at Talladega preview, picks

NASCAR at Talladega preview, picks
Can Bubba Wallace win Talladega again? Photo via: Wiki Commons

The time has finally come, it’s Talladega weekend. There is a lot to say about this racetack, it’s by far the most unpredictable on the schedule. We will see plenty of lead changes and three and four-wide racing. There is a good chance that during the second stage, the race will calm down, and we see more single file racing as the drivers try and save their equipment. The biggest key to the race will be to avoid the accidents and to know when to make the move for the win.

Last week's Bristol Dirt race featured one of the most memorable finishes in recent memory as Kyle Busch was able to steal the victory. In the final laps, Chase Briscoe and Tyler Reddick battled it out all the way to the white flag. Going into the last turn, it looked like Reddick was en route to his first win until Briscoe threw a hail marry and drove it in as deep as he could. Because of this, he spun out and collected Reddick. As this was happening, Kyle Busch came from third place to capture his 60th career victory. This victory was sort of ironic considering Busch's comment about Alex Bowman “backing into victories” but in the end, a win is a win. The win was Rowdy’s first in 29 races. This could very well be the catalyst to a great season for the two-time champion.

One driver who deserves some praise this season has been Ty Dillon. After a one-year hiatus from full-time competition in the Cup Series, Dillon has really been impressive considering this is a brand-new team. He currently has a 19.6 finishing average and has the most quality passes in the field. Last week, he scored his first top ten since October 2020 when he finished third at Talladega. It’s clear that this team has speed, and now they are going to a track where Ty is really good, overall he has a 10.5 average finish on superspeedways. He should be a good sleeper pick for Sunday.

Another driver to watch for this week is defending Talladega winner Bubba Wallace. This has been a frustrating season for Wallace and this 23 team. They have had numerous issues compound on top of each other. Last week, it was an engine issue that plagued this team. In the last six races, Wallace has had an abysmal 23.8 average finish. Luckily, superspeedways are where he shines. In the last three superspeedway races, Wallace has finished no worse than 2nd. He will have full support from his Toyota teammates, and he’s shown that he knows when to make the move and avoid the big one. This could be the turning point if he can get a good run. Look for Wallace to be a contender.

The driver I have winning this weekend is Ryan Blaney. This season, no one has been more consistent than him. In the last six races, his average finish has been 7.2, he also leads the points as well with the most stage points scored. Despite all this, Blaney has yet to win this season, but if there’s any place he can do it, Talladega is at the top of the list. He’s got two victories at this track, and he's won both on last-lap passes. When the race is on the line, there is no one I trust more than Blaney. Look for him to get his first win of 2022 to begin what could be a championship-caliber campaign.

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The Rockets are in it to win it this year. Composite Getty Image.

While the rolling Astros have a week of possible World Series preview matchups against the Phillies and Cubs, it’s the Rockets who made the biggest local sports headline with their acquisition of Kevin Durant. What a move! Of course there is risk involved in trading for a guy soon to turn 37 years old and who carries an injury history, but balancing risk vs. reward is a part of the game. This is a fabulous move for the Rockets. It’s understood that there are dissenters to this view. Everyone is entitled to an opinion, including people with the wrong opinion! Let’s dig in.

The Rockets had a wonderful season in winning 52 games before their disappointing first-round playoff loss to the Warriors, but like everyone else in the Western Conference, they were nowhere close to Oklahoma City’s caliber. While they finished second in the West, the Rockets only finished four games ahead of the play-in. That letting the stew simmer with further growth among their young players would yield true championship contention was no given for 2025-26 or beyond.

Kevin Durant is one of the 10 greatest offensive players the NBA has ever seen. Among his current contemporaries only Stephen Curry and Nikola Jokic make that list. For instance, Durant offensively has clearly been better than the late and legendary Kobe Bryant. To view it from a Houston perspective, Durant has been an indisputably greater offensive force than the amazing Hakeem Olajuwon. But this is not a nostalgia trip in which the Rockets are trading for a guy based on what he used to be. While Durant could hit the wall at any point, living in fear that it’s about to happen is no way to live because KD, approaching his 18th NBA season, is still an elite offensive player.

As to the durability concern, Durant played more games (62) this past season than did Fred VanVleet, Jabari Smith, and Tari Eason. The season before he played more games (75) than did VanVleet, Dillon Brooks, and Alperen Sengun. In each of the last two seasons Durant averaged more minutes per game (36.9) than any Rocket. That was stupid and/or desperate of the Suns, the Rockets will be smarter. Not that the workload eroded Durant’s production or efficiency. Over the two seasons he averaged almost 27 points per game while shooting 52 percent from the floor, 42 percent from behind the three-point line, and 85 percent from the free throw line. Awesomeness. The Rockets made the leap to being a very good team despite a frankly crummy half-court offense. The Rockets ranked 21st among the 30 NBA teams in three-point percentage, and dead last in free throw percentage. Amen Thompson has an array of skills and looks poised to be a unique star. Alas, Thompson has no credible jump shot. VanVleet is not a creator, Smith has limited handle. Adding Durant directly addresses the Rockets’ most glaring weakness.

The price the Rockets paid was in the big picture, minimal, unless you think Jalen Green is going to become a bonafide star. Green is still just 23 years old and spectacular athletically, but nothing he has done over four pro seasons suggests he’s on the cusp of greatness. In no season has Green even shot the league average from the floor or from three. His defense has never been as good as it should be given his athleticism. Compared to some other two-guards who made the NBA move one year removed from high school, four seasons into his career Green is waaaaaay behind where Shae Gilgeous-Alexander, Anthony Edwards, and Devin Booker were four seasons in, and now well behind his draft classmate Cade Cunningham. Dillon Brooks was a solid pro in two seasons here and shot a career-best from three in 2024-2025, but he’s being replaced by Kevin Durant! In terms of the draft pick capital sent to Phoenix, five second round picks are essentially meaningless. The Rockets have multiple extra first round picks in the coming years. As for the sole first-rounder dealt away, whichever player the Rockets would have taken 10th Wednesday night would have been rather unlikely to crack the playing rotation.

VanVleet signs extension

Re-signing Fred VanVleet to a two-year, 50 million dollar guarantee is sensible. In a vacuum, VanVleet was substantially overpaid at the over 40 mil he made per season the last two. He’s a middle-of-the-pack starting point guard. But his professionalism and headiness brought major value to the Rockets’ kiddie corps while their payroll was otherwise very low. Ideally, Reed Sheppard makes a leap to look like an NBA lead guard in his second season, after a pretty much zippo of a rookie campaign. Sheppard is supposed to be a lights-out shooter. For the Rockets to max out, they need two sharpshooters on the court to balance Thompson’s presence.

For Astro-centric conversation, join Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and me for the Stone Cold ‘Stros podcast which drops each Monday afternoon, with an additional episode now on Thursday. Click here to catch!

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