Can Bubba Wallace win Talladega again? Photo via: Wiki Commons
The time has finally come, it’s Talladega weekend. There is a lot to say about this racetack, it’s by far the most unpredictable on the schedule. We will see plenty of lead changes and three and four-wide racing. There is a good chance that during the second stage, the race will calm down, and we see more single file racing as the drivers try and save their equipment. The biggest key to the race will be to avoid the accidents and to know when to make the move for the win.
Last week's Bristol Dirt race featured one of the most memorable finishes in recent memory as Kyle Busch was able to steal the victory. In the final laps, Chase Briscoe and Tyler Reddick battled it out all the way to the white flag. Going into the last turn, it looked like Reddick was en route to his first win until Briscoe threw a hail marry and drove it in as deep as he could. Because of this, he spun out and collected Reddick. As this was happening, Kyle Busch came from third place to capture his 60th career victory. This victory was sort of ironic considering Busch's comment about Alex Bowman “backing into victories” but in the end, a win is a win. The win was Rowdy’s first in 29 races. This could very well be the catalyst to a great season for the two-time champion.
One driver who deserves some praise this season has been Ty Dillon. After a one-year hiatus from full-time competition in the Cup Series, Dillon has really been impressive considering this is a brand-new team. He currently has a 19.6 finishing average and has the most quality passes in the field. Last week, he scored his first top ten since October 2020 when he finished third at Talladega. It’s clear that this team has speed, and now they are going to a track where Ty is really good, overall he has a 10.5 average finish on superspeedways. He should be a good sleeper pick for Sunday.
Another driver to watch for this week is defending Talladega winner Bubba Wallace. This has been a frustrating season for Wallace and this 23 team. They have had numerous issues compound on top of each other. Last week, it was an engine issue that plagued this team. In the last six races, Wallace has had an abysmal 23.8 average finish. Luckily, superspeedways are where he shines. In the last three superspeedway races, Wallace has finished no worse than 2nd. He will have full support from his Toyota teammates, and he’s shown that he knows when to make the move and avoid the big one. This could be the turning point if he can get a good run. Look for Wallace to be a contender.
The driver I have winning this weekend is Ryan Blaney. This season, no one has been more consistent than him. In the last six races, his average finish has been 7.2, he also leads the points as well with the most stage points scored. Despite all this, Blaney has yet to win this season, but if there’s any place he can do it, Talladega is at the top of the list. He’s got two victories at this track, and he's won both on last-lap passes. When the race is on the line, there is no one I trust more than Blaney. Look for him to get his first win of 2022 to begin what could be a championship-caliber campaign.
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Joe Mixon has carried Houston’s offense in the three games since he returned from an injury.
The running back could be even more important this week with the Texans dealing with another injury to a top receiver after Stefon Diggs went down Sunday.
Diggs sustained a non-contact injury to his right knee and coach DeMeco Ryans refused to provide any details on his injury Monday, saying only that he’s still being evaluated.
His injury comes with leading receiver Nico Collins out for at least one more game after being placed on injured reserve with a hamstring injury.
Mixon has had at least 100 yards rushing and a TD run in three straight games. He finished with 102 yards rushing and a touchdown in Houston’s 23-20 win over Indianapolis on Sunday.
“Joe showed up big time for us when we needed him most making plays,” Ryans said.
Mixon, who is in his first season in Houston after a trade from Cincinnati, became the first player in NFL history to have at least 100 yards rushing and a TD run in four of his first five games with a team.
The only time he didn’t have 100 yards and a score this season came in Week 2 when he missed almost the entire second half with an ankle injury that kept him out the next three games. He ranks third in the NFL by averaging 100.6 yards rushing a game.
If Diggs is out this week, Tank Dell is the most likely candidate to pick up the slack in the passing game.
His production has dropped off this season after a standout rookie year where he had 709 yards receiving with seven touchdowns in 11 games before breaking his leg. He has 229 yards receiving this season and scored his second touchdown in Sunday’s win which improved the AFC South-leading Texans to 6-2.
But Ryans said it will take a group effort to make sure Stroud and Houston’s passing attack, which rank eighth in the NFL, stay on track.
“What I loved about our game (Sunday) was that you saw was multiple guys stepping up and making plays,” he said. “That is what excites me the most about our team … a lot of different guys stepping up and making plays and that is what we will continue to see.”
What's working
Houston’s defense entered Monday’s game ranked second in the NFL by allowing just 280.3 yards a game. The strength of the unit has been the pass defense, which is giving up just 164.3 yards a game.
Safety Jalen Pitre, who had an interception Sunday, said the secondary has gotten a boost from Houston’s pass rush, which ranks third in the league with 27 sacks.
“We’re doing a pretty good job, but it’s a huge credit to our D-line,” Pitre said. “They’re outstanding. They do their job at a high level and it does nothing but make opposing quarterbacks know that they’ve got to get the ball out earlier and that turns into incompletions and interceptions.”
What needs help
The offensive line continued to struggle in pass protection Sunday. Stroud was sacked just twice but was hit nine other times and was under pressure on 57.5% of his drop-backs according to NextGen stats.
The Texans benched left guard Kenyon Green for Jarrett Patterson in the first quarter Sunday as he struggled against the rush. But Green had to come back soon after that because Patterson got a concussion.
Ryans said they’ll continue to evaluate the line to see how they can improve the protection.
Stock up
Dell, who is in his second season, had four receptions for 35 yards and a touchdown Sunday. The performance came after he was targeted four times against the Packers but finished with zero receptions. He has nine career touchdowns, which ties him with Will Fuller for most in franchise history through a player’s first 18 games.
“I’m just super proud of him, what he’s been able to do and he’s going to have to step up really big for us,” Stroud said.
Stock down
Green for his struggles in pass protection Sunday. The 15th overall pick in the 2022 draft missed all last season with injuries before returning to the starting lineup this season.
“We can definitely be better, especially on my end,” he said after the game.
Injuries
S Calen Bullock was limited in practice Monday after injuring his shoulder Sunday. … LBs Azeez Al-Shaair (knee) and Henry To’oTo’o (concussion) both missed the Colts game but could return this week. … S Jimmie Ward is likely to miss a fifth straight game with a groin injury.
Key number
13.3% — Houston’s defense limited Anthony Richardson to a 13.3% completion percentage in the first half Sunday, which was the second-lowest completion percentage by any player in a half since 1991. The second-year quarterback completed just 2 of 15 passes before halftime.
Next steps
The Texans have a quick turnaround before a visit to the New York Jets on Thursday night where they’ll try for their fifth win in six games.